Churchill Downs Best Bets:
With Del Mar and Saratoga waiting in the wings, Churchill takes center stage with three graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Stephen Foster. Belmont at the Big A also has a graded stakes as they prep up to the Stars and Stripes festival in a week! VSiN readers, let’s look at today’s Churchill Downs best bets.
Stephen Foster, Churchill Downs, Race #11
In the feature of the weekend, #2 First Mission is a deserving favorite at 6/5 on the morning line. After a disappointing Pegasus World Cup, he has run back-to-back races that point to him being one of the best older horses in America. You can’t argue with the talent, but I can with the price. He is just going to be too short to get to win.
Let’s put #4 Disarm on top at 6-1. This will be his second start off the layoff after a very good 3-year-old campaign. He finished in the top four in his final four races, all against the better horses in the crop, while slightly improving each race. His debut this season was a paid workout, but physically, he looked like he grew up quite a bit. This was clearly the plan all along, and I expect him to pop here.
#9 Skippylongstocking is the classist horse in the field and comes in running back-to-back graded stakes. His price at 5/2 is a little too short for my liking, but he’s highly likely to be in the mix when they hit the wire.
#5 Dreamlike had one race in his past that can compete with there, that was at 3. Now he is 4 and should improve at some point. He is the one horse outside the top three that I’ll include in some of my trifecta plays.
Picks: 4-2-9-5
Churchill Down Best Bet: $50 Win #4
American Derby, Churchill Downs, Race #9
Let’s head to the turf with our other spotlight race. #7 First World War is one of my favorite 3-year-olds in training and is coming off a nice win in the Penn Mile. I think he is the most talented horse in this field, but he may be behind the 8-ball when it comes to the pace.
That will lead us to the rail, and lone speed, #1 Green Light. He will be gunning from the bell and projects to get an easy lead versus a field with no one else who remotely wants to get to the front. That pace edge is enough for me to put him on top.
The interesting price here is #8 Brilliant Berti ,who will set up to stakes company for the first time. He’s two for two since returning from the layoff with both races over this turf course. Cherie DeVaux, his trainer, calls her top jockey here in Brian Hernandez and she is very, very good in graded stakes, striking at a 22% rate.
I loved #4 Lagynos two starts back at 35-1. Now we are staring down the barrel at a much shorter price, just 9/2. He’s clearly a turf horse and will win a race like this in his future, but the pace today will make it tough.
Picks: 1-7-8-4
Churchill Down Best Bet: $50 Win – 1
Spot Plays:
Churchill Downs, Race #12 – $50 to win #5
Belmont at the Big A, Race #9 – $50 to win #4
