Churchill Downs Picks for Friday, May 2 from Mike Somich:
We’ve made it to the first Friday in May, which means it is the Run for the Lilies with the ladies taking center stage to headline a monster Friday card at Churchill Downs.
Kentucky Oaks, Churchill Downs, Race #11
You cannot talk about this year’s running of the Kentucky Oaks and not lead with #11 Good Cheer. She is a perfect six for six in her young career and has never really been forced to get it out of first gear. She has speed, but does not need or want the lead and then unleashes her move, which has been devastating to her rivals on the far turn. She’s a perfect three for three over the Churchill dirt, and she has beaten quite a few in this race as well. If you want to knock her, she has never gone this far, and she will be a short price. That being said, it’s hard to get past her on top.
#10 Take Charge Milady will try to make it back-to-back Oaks wins for trainer Kenny McPeak. She was lambasted at the break in the Honeybee two back, so draw a line through that effort. Outside of it, she has been a consistent, improving filly, including a win over the second choice on the morning line, #14 Quietside, three back. She will most likely be closing off a hot pace today and has the ability to improve enough to give Good Cheer a run for her money.
#9 Tenma enters as a wild card of sorts. She is easily the best the west has to offer this year for trainer Bob Baffert, but was just okay in her win in April at Santa Anita. If she can regain her form from late 2024 and early 2025, she is a player.
#6 Ballerina d’Oro is the filly who will be rooting for rain on Friday. She is bred to love the slop and has run her best two career races at today’s distance, including a win last out in the Gazelle. She will be rolling late, if the other tire, she may get her nose down at the wire.
Top 4: 11-9-6-10
The Bet: $10 Trifecta 11 / 6,9,10 / 6,9,10 – $2 Trifecta 6,9,10 / 11 / 6,9,10
The 8Belles, Churchill Downs, Race #9
The undercard features six other graded stakes, including the 8Belles, a seven-furlong dirt sprint. The favorite, #12 Eclatant, drew to the outside, and while she has been good, it may be too much for her to overcome here.
#10 Impulse Buy has not run since an impressive win here at Churchill back in November, but trainer Rudy Brisset is dangerous off the layoff. He clicks off at 16% in graded stakes races, so placing her here means she is ready. That also means trouble for the rest of the field. Horses generally move forward from their 2-year-old season to their 3-year-old season. Her 2-year-old numbers are good enough to beat this field. Top jock Flavien Prat takes the call and the price is right at 7/2.
#9 Bourbon Memory is intriguing at a price. She’s never raced on dirt, which is a big question mark, but her breeding says it shouldn’t be a problem. She’s four for four in her career and improved in every start. Do not sell her short.
#5 Verity enters off an eye-popping win in the Grade 2 Beaumont at Keeneland and will try to replicate that stalking style today. Trainer Eoin Harty calls on jock Vincent Cheminaud today, who is the go-to rider for the barn with the pair sporting a 38% win percentage when they team up.
#2 Evanescence is my crazy price horse in this spot. She’s 20-1 on the morning line and will need to improve to win, but she has won here at Churchill and loves an off track. If it rains, she’s a player.
Top 4: 10-9-5-2
The Bet: $50 Win #10
Spot Bets:
Churchill Downs Race #6 – $50 Win #2
Churchill Downs Race #10 – $50 Win #4e Bet: $50 Win #2
