Churchill Downs Picks for Saturday, June 28 from Mike Somich:
Stephen Foster weekend at Churchill Downs is always one of my favorite weekends of the year. It’s the official kickoff of the summer stakes that just keep rolling week in and week out. Next weekend we return to Saratoga for the Stars and Stripes festival, and then it is just a few short weeks until the full slates from both Saratoga and Del Mar!
Stephen Foster, Race 11, Churchill Downs
This is a race I circled on May 31st after #5 Mystik Dan won the Blame Stakes in one of the more fluky victories you will see. Antiquarian blew the far turn, leaving a rail run that dreams are made of, and he still almost got caught late. Today he faces tougher and will be a shorter price.
The morning line favorite is #4 Sierra Leone, who enters off a lackluster seasonal debut to follow up his Breeders’ Cup Classic victory to close out the year. It was not entirely his fault. There was no pace that day, and he was not going his preferred one mile and a quarter distance. Unfortunately, today, there will also not be much pace or his preferred mile and a quarter distance. I believe he will run better than in his last start, but I don’t think we’ll get the top effort it would take to win this race.
While I have trust issues with most of these horses for a variety of reasons, I am going with #2 Mindframe on top. He’s got his own problems, most of them mental, which were on full display in some of his losses last year. His debut start was much cleaner while winning over this course going seven furlongs, including beating Nysos, who came back to romp in California. He won today’s distance and is two for two at Churchill. There is more upside with him. Today is the day we start to see that.
#1 First Mission comes off the best last race of anyone in the field, a romp in the Oaklawn Handicap. He has flattered when stepping up to Grade 1 company three times in the past, but is now in the best form of his life. He and Mindframe also have the pace edge over this field on a track you want to be forward on.
#6 Hit Show ships back to North America after an upset win in Dubai. I do not think he can win, but he is a player underneath who has had success over the course and distance.
Top 4: 2-1-4-6
The Bets: $50 Win #2
The Kings Landing, Churchill Downs, Race #9
This six-and-a-half furlong sprint brought out the speed! The morning line favorite is #3 Booth, who is just speed on speed on speed. He has won the last four races, three of them graded stakes, in front-running fashion and will try to do so today as well. There is other speed that is signed on, and this is a jump in class, both of which make today’s test the toughest. While I do think he’s a player, he will most likely be overbet.
I’m going to head to the rail with #1 Dr. Venkman, who ships in from California for this test. He was a top-tier sprinter last year before stretching out. His seasonal debut is better than it looks on paper, chasing Nysos, a monster of a horse, the whole way around. He gets the pace to chase today, and the extra half furlong is in his favor versus Booth. When you have a sprint with this much speed, it’s always important to tag the collapse horse.
If the pace falls apart, #6 Happy Is a Choice is the main benefactor. He is a cut below these when all things are equal, but if the pace weakens some of the main competitors, he is the one who runs up and steals a slice or even the whole pie.
#2 Three Technique is the other collapse horse, but I do not see him being able to win the race. He’s a player underneath.
Top 4: 1-3-6-2
The Bet – $50 Win #1Spot Bets
Churchill Downs, Race #10 – $50 Win #3
Churchill Downs, Race #7 – $50 Trifecta 3-1-4
