Take your wagering experience to the next level with 1/ST BET’s revolutionary in-app handicapping tools and streamlined betting interface. 1/ST BET is offering a $200 sign-up bonus to VSiN users. Go here and use the code VSiN200.
Churchill Picks for Saturday, May 31 from Mike Somich:
It’s a joyful day when the letters SAR show up on the past performance sites and those beautiful letters hit the sites earlier this week when the Wednesday Saratoga past performances dropped. With just one week until the final, for now, Belmont Stakes at Saratoga, all eyes will wait just a few more days before shifting up to upstate New York.
Let’s focus on Kentucky, Churchill specifically, while we bide our time.
The Shawnee Stakes, Churchill Downs, Race #8
I’ll always be a sucker for a race where I perceive there to be weak favorites and that is just what we’ve got here. The morning line favorite is #1 Where’s My Ring who sits on the board at 5/2 based off of a $35k allowance race that has no additional backing. That’s a pass for me.
The second choice is #7 Gin Gin who switched barns from Brad Cox to Brendan Walsh after a disappointing effort in January. She was awesome on barn debut in the Double Dog Dare at Keeneland, but that was at 39-1. Today, she is 7/2. With her, there is at least a logical argument to be made on the barn switch and aggressive placement that she was simply mispriced for the first time out for Walsh. That being said, it will always be tough to swallow that level of an odds drop as the competition rises.
I will take a shot here with #6 Alpine Princess who is 0-for-3 on an off track and 4-for-8 over fast going. That absolves the last two races and the cutback should help.
If we do have rain, I’ll switch up to the #2 Corningstone at 10-1. Hernandez jumps back aboard where he has had success before with 4 wins and 3 seconds. She has also been stellar over the off-going as well with two wins in three starts.
If anyone is able to get the lead and take the field gate to wire, it’s the #3 Royal Spa who should be able to get to the front. If she’s loose, she’s dangerous.
Top 4 – 6-2-7-3
The Bets – $50 Win #6 (if the track is fast), $50 Win #2 (if the track is muddy/sloppy)
The Blame Stakes, Churchill Downs, Race #10
The Blame again offers value since two of the top choices are going to be overbet. Kentucky Derby winner #4 Mystik Dan will take way more money than he deserves simply off of the name. He’s not impossible, but fair odds are closer to 8-1 than 4-1. Same with #8 Banishing who is simply better going shorter. With the speed signed on today, it would take a career best to win.
All that should help the #9 Post Time hold his 3-1 price. He looked awesome on return at Laurel before shipping to town for this step up in class. He faced the best of the best in the Cigar Mile and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and now gets a great pace set up 2nd off the layoff.
#3 Antiquarian is an interesting horse at a price. He’s 15-1 on the morning line and gets Pletcher to call in Johnny V to ride. He was highly thought of last year before a lackluster run in the Belmont. He was great on return and now steps back up into graded stakes company at a price.
#6 Hall of Fame is the other beneficiary of the overbet horses in this spot. His morning line price at 8-1 is about double what I would make him in this spot. He likes the distance, can stalk and pounce and is in solid form.
Top 4 – 9-3-6-7
The Bet – $50 Win #9
Spot Bets
Churchill Downs, Race #6 – $50 Exacta 6-4
Churchill Downs, Race #11 – $50 Win #7 (If we are on the turf)
