Del Mar Picks: Breeders’ Cup Classic Horse Racing Predictions

Breeders’ Cup Classic

If only finding the winner of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic was as easy as playing “Eeny, Meeny, Miny, Uncle Mo”. Trust me folks, finding the winner of this year’s race is tougher than eating grits with a fork.

With no Mo in this year’s Classic field, Mr. Ed begins with research, conducting an all-night study of past performance charts of all 16 entrants, paying particular attention to the post position, owner, breeder, trainer, jockey, speed figures, career earnings, most suitable distance for each contestant, class, and the morning line. Then he divides the contestants into two distinct groups: NO WAY & ALL THE WAY.

NO WAY: These are horses Mr. Ed believes have little, if any, chance of winning: #4 MIXTO, #8 PYRENEES, #5 SENOR BUSCADOR, #7 USHBA TESORO, #12 ARTHUR’S RIDE, #2 HIGHLAND FALLS, and #14 NEXT.

ALL THE WAY: Before sharing my projected Classic winner and three other top finishers, here’s a closer look at seven talented starters whom he believes have the mixture of key handicapping elements to go ALL THE WAY!

#3 CITY OF TROY (5-2 morning line): Expected post time favorite has won six of seven starts (all on grass) and banked more than $3 million. Britisher Aiden O’Brien, considered by many the top conditioner in Europe, says the sophomore is the best horse he has ever trained. Jockey Ryan Moore is at the top of his game. If import can transfer his turf talent to California soil, he’s sure to be in the mix from start to finish.

#1 FOREVER YOUNG (6-1): Talented Japanese import, also winner of six, came east in May to compete in Run for Roses, finishing third. Then, returned to homeland in early October to capture the prestigious 1¼-mile Japan Dirt Classic. Trainer-jockey combo unchanged since Kentucky Derby. He’s sharp enough to be THE one.

#11 SIERRA LEONE (12-1): He’s yet to run up to his full potential. The $2.3 million Kentucky-bred colt has met every challenge on his road to BC Classic — except win. He’s trained by arguably the top high-class trainer in the country, Chad Brown. He’s never finished out of the money in seven consecutive graded stakes. Regular rider, French native Florent Geroux, will have this deep closer ready to roll in stretch. Son of a Gun (Runner).

#9 FIERCENESS (3-1): When this guy fires, there’s no one faster. His last two, with speed figures of 111 & 103, respectively, winning Jim Dandy and Travers, both at Saratoga, attest to his sizzling speed. Having banked more than $2.3 million, he’s been a cash cow for owner Mike Repole, trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez. If he breaks cleanly and Johnny hits the gas pedal, he may never be headed. Lean and mean.

#6 DERMA SOTOGAKE (20-1): Came to the U.S. in 2023 to compete in the Kentucky Derby (6th) and the BC Classic at Santa Anita (2nd), connections claim they have “been here and done that” —  and are poised to win this year. The four-year-old has amassed a $3.4 million bankroll, while capturing 4-of-13 vs. first-class international fields. Of the 19 horses Japan has sent east for the BC Championships, this guy is above all others.

#13 NEWGATE (20-1): He’s the best of Baffert. West Coast super trainer sends out $850K son of Into Mischief, who has posted a pair of very fast works at Santa Anita in preparation for BC Classic. Ridden by the legendary Frankie Dettori. Never ignore Baffert on his home track. Colt broke his maiden over this oval.

#10 TAPIT TRICE (30-1): Hall of Famer trainer Todd Pletcher’s lesser-known entrant along with #6 FIERCENESS (profile above) has won half his 12 races en route to the BBC. Ridden by popular NY-circuit leading jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., four-year-old has raced against top-quality fields up and down the East Coast, banking more than $1.7 million. His signature win came in the G2 Woodward Stakes last month at Aqueduct. He may be peaking at just the right time. Easy to like.

After doing all his homework and weighing all the important factors, Mr. Ed narrowed his win choices down to four. At one time or another, up until the copy deadline Tuesday afternoon, I had made a case for all of them. That’s the reason my biggest wager is a four-horse Exacta Box. Any one of these international stars could finish first or fourth:

#11 SIERRA LEONE (MR. ED’S CLASSIC WINNER)

#3 CITY OF TROY

#9 FIERCENESS

#1 FOREVER YOUNG