Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer analyze a 1 3/16-mile Grade 2 stakes for 3-year-olds at Fair Grounds in New Orleans.
Saturday’s Grade 2 Louisiana Derby is Race 12 at Fair Grounds — a 1 3/16-mile dirt test for 3-year-olds offering 100 points to the winner in the final round of Kentucky Derby qualifying preps, with a post time of 5:42 p.m. Central and a purse of $1 million. The two analysts are split at the top: Aragona backs the morning-line favorite, while Beer fades him entirely.
The Favorite
No. 3 Chip Honcho enters as the 3-1 morning-line favorite off a second-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes, where he controlled the pace before being run down late. Aragona is comfortable going back to him. “I just think he’s going to be tough to beat once again,” he says, pointing to Chip Honcho’s likely uncontested lead through the 1 3/16-mile trip. He also notes that two starts back – before blinkers were removed – Chip Honcho had the toughest trip of the top four finishers, going wide and getting rank, and still ran well.
Beer acknowledges everything that makes Chip Honcho the horse to beat but won’t back him at the price. “I wasn’t thrilled with any of his races before that last one,” Beer says, adding that the pace in the Risen Star was easy — Chip Honcho was never truly tested on the front end. His verdict: “Chip Honcho’s got to win that race.”
The Contenders
Beer’s pick to win is No. 9 Emerging Market, Chad Brown’s debut winner who posted a 97 Beyer Speed Figure at Tampa Bay Downs. Aragona has him second. Beer says the colt was “super professional” in that debut – rating patiently, tracking the pace, and putting rivals away when asked. “I don’t even feel like he needs to improve off of it to beat a field like this,” Beer says. Both analysts expect the 6-1 morning-line price to compress significantly before post.
Beer’s second choice is No. 7 Blacksmith, the Bob Baffert shipper whom Beer calls “the one horse in this race I’m reasonably convinced is going to get this far” on distance. He likes that Blacksmith stayed engaged throughout his maiden win, though cautions he wouldn’t take a short price. Beer also includes No. 8 Easterly — one of two Brad Cox-trained runners in the field — third in his sequence, noting he likes the way Easterly won last time and believes the colt has the natural speed to sit close to the pace. Both analysts close with No. 5 Golden Tempo, Beer fourth and Aragona third – a closer Beer still believes will be running late, even if the pace scenario may not set up perfectly.
The Verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 3 Chip Honcho
No. 9 Emerging Market
No. 5 Golden Tempo
No. 4 Universe
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 9 Emerging Market
No. 7 Blacksmith
No. 8 Easterly
No. 5 Golden Tempo
Aragona and Beer share Emerging Market and Golden Tempo but diverge sharply at the top — Aragona backs the morning-line favorite, while Beer fades him and looks to the Chad Brown shipper to take the Grade 2.
Listen for more insights, as David and Mike break down this race:
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