Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer analyze a field of seven fillies and mares going a mile on the dirt in an allowance/optional claimer at Gulfstream Park.
Thursday’s Daily Racing Form Race of the Day is Race 9 on a 10-race card at Gulfstream Park with a post time of 4:54 p.m. Eastern and a purse of $87,000. No. 2 Dry Powder figures to be the favorite, and Beer sides with her on top while Aragona takes a shot against her with No. 3 Velvet Vortex – both agreeing Dry Powder is beatable after a flat return last out.
Beer’s top pick: No. 2 Dry Powder
Dry Powder, the likely favorite trained by Chad Summers with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding, was Grade 1-placed last year, finishing second to Clicquot in the Cotillion. Her Breeders’ Cup Distaff start came with a troubled trip – wide on the turns at Del Mar – and her Barbara Fritchie return was a third, fading on her wrong lead when challenged. Beer gives her a pass as a horse that needed the race off a layoff and notes she steps down into a softer spot second off the bench. Daily Racing Form’s TimeformUS Pace Projector rates her with the best late pace in the field. Beer uses her on top. Aragona uses her second.
Aragona’s top pick: No. 3 Velvet Vortex
Velvet Vortex, trained by Brad Cox with Edgard Zayas riding, won her debut at Fair Grounds and an allowance at Saratoga before stopping badly last out after setting the pace in a sprint. Aragona views a prior Keeneland effort as better than it looks given the pace collapse that day and points to Cox’s strong numbers with horses returning from longer layoffs. Beer isn’t willing to trust her given the last effort.
The rest of the field
No. 4 Her Town, trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. with Micah Husbands riding, has won 2 of 3 starts, though Aragona suspects her last Gulfstream win came on a wet track mislabeled as fast – a question mark heading into Thursday.
No. 5 Midtown Lights, the other Joseph trainee with Luis Saez riding, has competed in tougher New York company, and both handicappers feel the one-turn mile suits her well.
No. 1 Macanga, ridden by John Velazquez for trainer Elizabeth Dobles, has raced exclusively on turf, and her lone dirt try on a sloppy track went nowhere.
No. 6 Sudden Switch, trained by Riley Mott with Junior Alvarado riding, showed early promise, but her last start at Turfway Park ended with her being eased and the form is hard to trust despite the return to dirt.
The handicappers’ verdict
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 2 Dry Powder
No. 4 Her Town
No. 5 Midtown Lights
No. 1 Macanga
David Aragona’s picks
No. 3 Velvet Vortex
No. 2 Dry Powder
No. 4 Her Town
No. 6 Sudden Switch
Beer sides with the favorite while Aragona takes a shot with Velvet Vortex, with both agreeing Dry Powder is the one to beat stepping back into a softer spot.
Listen for more insights, as David and Mike break down this race:
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