Mike Somich’s Fair Grounds and Turway Park Picks:
We have officially entered the home stretch of the Kentucky Derby qualifying races, with each race now worth 100 points to the winner and 50 points to second. Both essentially ensure a spot in the starting gate at Churchill. This week, Fair Grounds and Turfway Park both close out their respective prep seasons in races where multiple horses will try to elevate their Derby statuses.
Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, Race #12
The final prep of the Derby season in Louisiana is highlighted by a couple of horses who are lightly raced and looking to take a big step forward. The morning line favorite, #1 John Hancock, exits a gutsy win in the Sam F Davis over Tampa Bay Derby winner Owen Almighty for trainer Brad Cox. He is likely to get bet in this spot due to the connections and the perfect two-for-two record. While I do think he’s got a shot to win, I cannot swallow the price here. In both his starts, he has gone gate to wire, and that will be much more difficult to do today. He is one of three or four horses that will be contesting the pace, which should help set it up for a closer.
I’m going to go outside and take the #10 Hypnus, who exits an adventurous trip in the Rebel. That was his second start of his career and he got trapped behind a wall of horses who were backing up in the stretch. He was shut off three times and still had enough to run on late and make up ground on two very good horses. He will need a better trip today, but the pace sets up well. The price is right at 10-1.
#6 Built exits the Risen Star here at Fair Grounds, where Magnitude aired the field and put up a monster number. We’ve already seen that race produce a next-out Derby prep winner in the Virginia Derby in American Promise. Built has shown versatility, winning on the front end and running well from mid-pack, so a hot tempo should not be an issue.
The wild card here is #7 Vassimo, who heads to the post for Todd Pletcher. He was disappointing in the Risen Star, but the addition of blinkers intrigues me here. He’s worked with them twice, and while the first work was not great, the second was the best I have seen from him. If he steps forward with blinkers, 12-1 is a solid price.
The Bet: $50 Win #10
Jeff Ruby Steaks, Turfway Park, Race #12
The final synthetic prep of the season offers a very interesting betting race. The top two out of the local prep return here in #3 California Burrito and #6 Baby Max return to face a host of invaders. While California Burrito won last time out, I still prefer Baby Max, who was wide the whole way around this Turfway Park track last time out. While California Burrito was going gate to wire, Baby Max had to deal with traffic. The adjusted price on the two makes me more interested in Baby Max.
The favorite, #9 Poster, debuted and won his first two starts on the turf, which bodes well for this surface. While he’s a deserving favorite, I am not willing to take too short of a price on a horse who is untested on the surface and was just okay in his last start.
Two interesting prices are #2 Charlie’s to Blame and #12 He’s Not Joking. Charlie’s To Blame enters after back-to-back turf wins and jockey JJ Hernandez flies in from California to ride. He’s won on the lead in back-to-back starts but showed the ability to rate and close three back, which could be the winning trip on Saturday. He’s Not Joking returns to his best surface after back-to-back disappointing runs over the dirt in his last two. If he returns to the synthetic form we saw at Woodbine then he fits with this bunch. At 15-1 both the 2 and 12 offer value in this spot.
The Bet: $50 Win #6
Other bets:
Fair Grounds, Race #9 – $50 Win #2
Turfway Park Race #13 – $50 Win #8
