Horse Racing Best Bets from Turfway/Fair Grounds – March 23

Horse Racing Best Bets – Louisana Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks

The final two preps for the Kentucky Derby will run Saturday from Turfway Park and Fair Grounds, with a handful of horses looking to take a step toward the first Saturday in May. Both undercards feature Kentucky Oaks preps as well, featuring Tarifa, a horse we featured in this article a couple of weeks ago. She looks tough in the Fair Grounds Oaks, Race 11 on the card, but watch out for #7 Our Pretty Woman who looks to have a lone lead in that race! Let’s look at some horse racing best bets for today.

Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, Race #12

Fair Grounds’ final prep of the Derby season has a field of twelve 3-year-olds signed on, with the winner locking up enough points to make the gate at Churchill. Runner up in the Risen Star, #12 Track Phantom gets hung wide for the second straight race but was able to clear and just miss. The setup seems to be similar again today. Track Phantom should clear and make the lead, the main question will be the added distance and the trip the horses behind him will get.

The #5 Catching Freedom is a horse I have been high on for a while. He has taken a step forward in each start, but he still has not been able to get his head in the game. In the Risen Star, he looked like he had a chance, but he could not run in a straight line in the stretch and was tired. I expect him to step forward again, but he needs to mature. Right now, his talent is further along than his mental progression.

#2 Hall of Fame is also back for more after the Risen Star. On paper, the trip did not look too bad, but when you rewatch the race, you realize he never had a chance. He was in traffic for much of the race and reacted poorly to the muddy kickback that he faced that day. Today, the draw is ideal. He will break from the two post with enough speed to sit directly behind Track Phantom and #3 Antiquarian. He has shown the ability. Today that should link up with a good trip.

Another horse who clearly has not figured it out yet is the #7 Honor Marie. Watching his Risen Star, it’s shocking he ran as well as he did. For close to a half mile, he was disinterested in the race, but once he got his mind on racing, he started gobbling up ground. I expect him to run better, but it may be too ambitious to put him in the top spot.

Picks: 2-5-12-7

Horse Racing Best Bets:
$50 Win – 2
$20 Exact Box – 2,5

 The Jeff Ruby Steaks, Turfway Park, Race #12

No, I didn’t misspell Steaks. The final prep of the Turfway season is named after the famous Kentucky Steakhouse Jeff Ruby’s. Unlike most Kentucky Derby preps, this one will be contested over a synthetic track instead of dirt, bringing in a unique handicapping twist. The deserving favorite #10 Endlessly ships in from California after an impressive win over Golden Gate’s synthetic track to kick off his 3-year-old season. He fits the surface beautifully (generally, turf horses run well over synthetic), and he was a top turf horse as a 2-year-old. If Endlessly fails to cross the wire first, this is a crap shoot of a race.

#8 Otello, who sits at 15-1 on the morning line, exits the Holy Bull where he had no chance. Otello was hung wide on both turns and had to try to close into a pace that a tortoise would be envious of. He should get more pace today, and the shift to synthetic and added distance are both positives.

Todd Pletcher will send out #14 Triple Espresso, who has shown talent all his career on the turf. His last race was also a rough one, with a slow pace to chase and a wide trip. Jose Ortiz sees fit to jump aboard, and the price is right at 12-1.

Another Pletcher entrant, #4 Noted, will switch from the turf to the synthetic after running against some of the best turf horses in the nation. Distance should not be an issue and again, the price is generous at 10-1.

The speed of the race, #6 Northern Flame, could play a role in this if he is not pressed early. The 5-1 price feels a little short, but the step up could be right.

Picks: 10-8-14-4

Horse Racing Best Bets:
$50 Win – #10
$5 Trifecta – 10 / 4,8,14 / 4,8,14

Spot plays:
Turfway Park Race #10 – $50 Win #3
Fair Grounds Race #11 – $50 Exacta 5 / 7