Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 4
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The Blue Grass Stakes, Keeneland, Race #11
With Keeneland back on Saturday, we are treated to a wonderful card culminating in the Blue Grass with 100 Derby points to the winner. The favorite, #6 Further Ado, looks tough on paper. The close second to The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby is more impressive after last weekend, and you’d expect improvement second off the bench. The big question is going to be the price. I’m guessing the 8-5 morning line is high and Ado will be closer to even money when they break from the gate. He’s the most likely winner, but not at the price.
I’m going with #3 Great White on top here at 15-1. I was expecting Great White to head to the Jeff Ruby Steaks after his win at Turfway Park, but the move to the dirt here shows confidence with the breeding and last workout at Keeneland backing that up. The trip should be ideal, with enough speed here to allow a great staking trip and the distance should not be an issue.
#1 Talkin is also second off the layoff and should improve off the last. He’s got races good enough to hit the board here and, if Rosario takes back, should be able to make a big run late to get into the money.
#4 Reagan’s Honor is the other short price here, stepping up off of back-to-back wins at Fairgrounds. He will be part of the pace, and if he is able to get loose could be tough to catch. Two other horses in here possess as much early speed, so I would expect he is pressed, and if so, that will make this a difficult task, especially first time against stakes company.
Top 4: 3-6-1-4
The Bets: $50 Win #3
Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita, Race #10
I have been waiting for this spot for #7 Intrepido since he ran second in the Robert B Lewis, and I have no reason to back off once the field was drawn. I thought this was the most talented 2-year-old in California last year and, with improvement, he fits well against this bunch. Last time out, he was placed on the lead, which is not his best style. Today, he will have pace to chase and should flourish with added distance.
#2 Potente took a nice step forward, winning the San Felipe last time out and has a chance to become a real Derby contender with a win here to follow it up. He should be close early but does not need the lead and will relish the added distance.
#1 Cherokee Nation has been one of the most perplexing horses on the trail this season. He has always had talent but did not put it all together until his last win going one mile. That race jumps off the page and is the best of any horse here, but nothing in the five prior starts really backs it up. If he returns with that form, he will be tough, but if he reverts to any of the prior races, he will be off the board. That’s a tough one for me to get excited about at 5-2.
#4 Robusta almost pulled off the massive upset at 67-1 over Potente last time out and thus is just 8-1 here. He probably deserves to be priced somewhere in the middle of those two numbers. I do not see him as a win threat here but should be in the mix with a furlong left to run.
Top 4: 7-2-1-4
The Bets – $50 Win #7
