Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, August 16
It’s another big day of racing at Saratoga and Del Mar, but the richest race of the day is going to be run in Canada. The Canadian Triple Crown kicks off with the $1 Million King’s Plate at Woodbine and offers one of the best betting opportunities of the day!
King’s Plate, Woodbine, Race #9
Much like our Kentucky Derby, the King’s Plate always offers a great betting opportunity since you will get a full field, 13 this year, of 3-year-olds who have a chance to improve. It’s always a puzzle as well, since you have US horses who head north of the border to compete for a monster purse. The favorite will be #10 No Time, who will look to beat the boys. It’s not uncommon for a filly to win this race, in fact, Casse and Velazquez teamed up with Wonder Gadot to win this in 2018. She’s a player off her win in the Woodbine Oaks, but I’m not betting the favorite to win in a 13-horse field of 3-year-olds.
#3 Notorious Gangster and #12 Sedburys Ghost exit the Plate Trial running 1-2 in that spot with Sedburys Ghost getting to the wire first. I like Notorious Gangster more today. He had a less-than-wonderful trip that day and was the post-time favorite.
I am going to put #7 Runaway Again on top here. He’s very lightly raced. He won his only start with an 83 beyer, but trainer Sid Attard is not one to be overly aggressive, so I have confidence in the move. The 83 beyer is the third-highest last out number, just the 10 and 12 have better, and Castellano jumps aboard. Most appealing is the 12-1 price on a horse bred to handle the distance and is a logical improvement candidate second time out.
I have got to give the #8 Dewolf a shoutout here. He’s 30-1 on the morning line and get the services of Saratoga-suspended Flavian Prat for one of the best trainers on the ground. He missed by two lengths to the 3 at the end of last season and was sub 5-1 in both starts this year. He’s worth a play underneath.
Top 4: 7-3-12-10-8
The Bets – $50 Win #7 – $1 Superfecta 3,7 / 3,7,12 / 3,7,8,10,12 / 3,7,8,10,12 = $24
Other Woodbine Play
In the EP Taylor, Race #7 on the card, I’ll take a shot with #3 Diamond Rain, who is 6-1 on the board. She should be closer to 2-1 based on my numbers, so she is well worth a play at that price.
Grade 1 Alabama Stakes, Saratoga Race #10
While not a big field, just six, we have three horses at 5/2 or shorter and a good win betting opportunity. #2 Good Cheer is 8/5 on the morning line off a lackluster Acorn, where she was against the track bias and almost too bad to believe. She’s been the best 3-year-old filly all year long and will have the opportunity today to prove that is still the case.
#6 La Cara won the Acorn going gate to wire on a speed-favoring, muddy track. Today, she will get some contention upfront from the 4 and possibly the 1 as well, but even without it, I’d be willing to take a shot against. Her last was a clear outlier at this point; she needs to do it again before I take her seriously against a bunch like this.
#4 Nitrogen is the best 3-year-old filly to date on the turf, but will switch surfaces today to go after a bigger purse. She has run once on the dirt, but that was a sloppy track against just two other horses who both want turf. The water is much deeper. While I do believe she has talent on the dirt, her price represents a proven dirt horse, and she just isn’t that.
Of the other three, I’m a little interested in #5 Queen Azteca, who ships in for this spot. She won the UAE Oaks before facing the boys the last three out. I’m going to use here in exotics to try to liven up the payouts.
The picks: 2-5-4-6
The Bet – $50 Win #2 – $20 Exacta 2 with 5
Other Saratoga Plays
Let’s look to the last race of the day and play the #1 Spoken Bluntly, who should make the lead from the rail and hold off the field late at a decent price.
