Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, August 23
It’s Travers Day from Saratoga, which means we have a loaded card featuring six Grade 1 races. The Travers itself has caught some slack for drawing just five horses, but I am not sure who else people expected to show up in this spot to take on Sovereignty. Baeza and Journalism have already shot their shot and the Penn Derby is a million-dollar race and a Grade 1. That does not take away from an undercard I’m looking forward to betting.
Travers, Saratoga, Race #13
I’ve been saying that if #1 Magnitude shows up in the Travers, he is the horse that can beat #4 Sovereignty for nearly two months now, so I’m not going to back off my opinion now. That being said, it’s not a great spot to bet Magnitude to win due to the 2-1 price and short field. I was hoping to get closer to 5-1 in this spot, but that simply isn’t going to happen. If you are playing multi-race bets, you will get much closer to that price since there will be 75%+ of the tickets going through Sovereignty. I will be singling Magnitude in the multi-race plays to try to get value. Now, why do I like Magnitude? He’s the speed horse that Sovereignty has yet to face. Magnitude is able to go 1:10 to six furlongs and keep going. With #2 Bracket Buster in the race, I am a little less excited. He has the ability to push the pace, but Magnitude has won while sitting in second before, and he should improve off the Iowa Derby effort. I do like #3 Strategic Focus in third, so I am going to try to get value out of the race with a cold trifecta.
Top 3: 1-4-3
The Bets: $50 Trifecta 1-4-3
The Personal Ensign, Saratoga, Race #9
#7 Thorpedo Anna is back in her playground at Saratoga where she ran arguably her best three races of her career. She’s won eight of her last nine against the ladies. I’m willing to throw out her effort at Churchill Downs. I also am not in love with the rest of this field. Most of the other Grade 1 winners were added by the race track. #1 Randomized got a perfect gate to wire trip over a speed-favoring Monmouth track, #4 Dorth Vader got a dream setup over a track you could not close on in the Phipps, and #3 Raging Sea won when Anna did not show up. That leaves #6 Leslie’s Rose, who has been improving as the main threat. She was soundly beaten by Anna multiple times last year, but she is clearly the best of the rest here. I do like Dorth Vader in the third spot.
Top 4: 7-6-4-3
The Bets – $50 Exacta 7-6
Ballerina, Saratoga, Race #11
I want to play against the favorite #7 Scylla here, who has yet to win since cutting back in distance. She’s a logical underneath horse, but not someone I want to play at a short price. #9 Hope Road is an interesting Baffert entry here. She was on a four-race win streak before running into Kopion. She is likely the speed of the speed from the outside and should be around in the deep stretch. I’m going to land on more of a price here with #5 Claret Beret, who is 6-1. I was a doubter in the Chicago since there was no race outside of the Gulfstream race that made her a player. Now with back-to-back efforts on the page and no Vahva waiting for her, it is her time to break through. If the pace completely collapses, keep an eye on #3 Majestic Oops, who is cutting back in distance today, but has been on the steady improve throughout her 5-year-old campaign.
Top 4: 5-9-3-7
The Bet – $50 Win #5
