Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, January 31
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Sweetest Chant, Gulfstream Park, Race #11
We have a full field headed to the post with favoritism landing on #8 Sister Troienne, who has yet to taste defeat over the turf. She fits well with this bunch and has won over the course. She is a logical winner, but the price is going to be the question. She is 2-1 on the morning line but will likely be closer to 6-5 when they break from the gate. That’s too short for me in a big field where I do not think she’s a big standout.
#3 Brat Pack is more of the price I am looking for at 12-1. The race last time out was better than it looks on paper. Breaking from the outside, she lost ground all the way around and still was able to fly home in sub-12-second fractions after going 1:13 to the six-furlong point. She should get a much better trip today, and the necessary improvement is right in line with expectations here.
#6 Storm’s Wake is another interesting price. She was the favorite over this course in October but showed up empty before taking a three-month break. The return race was better than it looks on paper, no one closed in that race, and Lynch is clicking off at a 33% hit rate for the meet.
#10 Aggressive Lime will run for the first time in four months after an impressive win at Churchill. Cox thought enough of this one to show up in the Grade 2 Jessamin at Keeneland last year so you know there is talent here. The post is the main issue.
Top 4: 3-8-6-10
The Bets – $50 Win #3
Holy Bull, Gulfstream Park, Race #12
With Ted Noffy exiting the Triple Crown trail, we suddenly have a wide-open Kentucky Derby, and we will get to see three of the current stars running here. #5 Cannoneer is one of the favorites off a romp at Churchill Downs last November. With the expectation that Game for It, the 9, does not run here as is the rumor, he sets up to get a dream trip up front. He will have inside speed and the short stretch should benefit him.
#7 Nearly could be the main pace pressure for trainer Todd Pletcher. He’s got the high beyer of the field in his last race, but faced just three opponents that days. He’s 28-1 in future pools, if he handles this field, he will drop to one of the favorites for the run for the roses.
#1 Incredibolt sits on the morning line at 9/2 and will be hampered by his running style. It’s tough to close and win this race. Riley Mott, Bill’s son, is taking a similar path this year as his dad did last year with Sovereignty in winning the Street Sense at Churchill and then heading to Gulfstream Park to lead up to the Derby. He’s a logical one underneath, but I do not think we get his best shot today.
Out of the rest, #8 Bravaro is the one I am interested in. He is 2-for-2 against state-bred New York company without ever really being pushed. The added distance should not be an issue, and he should be much closer to the pace than the 1. I’m going to use him an exacta with Cannoneer here and try to get around the other two main contenders to try to create some value.
Top 4: 5-8-7-1
The Bets – $50 Exacta #5 with #8
