Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 4
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Now let’s head out to Keeneland for some stakes action!
Woodford Stakes, Keeneland, Race #6
Let’s kick it off with a wide-open turf sprint in the Woodford. I’m going to take the most consistent horse in the field, #1 Arrest Me Red. He will sit a nice trip in here with multiple speed horses in front and should save all the ground on the rail. Red has a win over the Keeneland turf and is second off the layoff here after being against the bias at Kentucky Downs.
#8 Khaadem exits the same race at Kentucky Downs as the top pick and ran well there. He has not run in North America, so this will be a new test, but he was running against some of the best in Europe. He is a versatile horse who can stalk or close which should allow him to play to the pace here.
The speed I like the most in here is #3 Joe Shiesty for two primary reasons. First, he’s got the inside, which makes it much easier to win the race to the turn. Secondly, he’s 8-1, which is better than the price of the other speed.
#5 Doncho is the other speed who has gone gate to wire in back-to-back races. The 3-1 price is too short for me with the step up in class and Joe pushing him every step of the way, but I understand why he will get bet.
Top 4: 1-8-3-5
The Bets: $50 Win #1
Coolmore Turf Mile, Keeneland, Race #10
After nearly a year, we will finally get to see #4 Diego Velazquez run in the United States. This was a single in last year’s Breeders’ Cup before scratching out last year. He has won back-to-back Group stakes races in Europe over some of the best horses they have to offer. He has enough early speed to not lose touch with this field and the kick to win this. His morning line of 7-2 is a pipe dream, but anything over even money is a good look here.
#9 Rhetorical steps up here to take on open company, but the improvement that we’ve seen in the last two races makes the 8-1 interesting for a horse that is now 4 for 5 in his career.
#8 Program Trading ran well first off a long layoff, so he should improve here. He’s the most logical US horse here, but will need to regain his 2024 form to be able to compete with the top-end horses here.
#12 Jonquil is the price that could surprise here. He’s shipping in for a trainer that is 2 for 3 with this move and is another European who is not slow early. The main issue here is the post.
Top 4: 4-9-8-12
The Bets: $50 Win #4
