Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 6
With Saratoga wrapping up their meet, we slow down a little this weekend on the track, but we still have Kentucky Downs and Del Mar running! If you are looking for picks on the major stakes races at Kentucky Downs as well as a couple of my best bets, check out the podcast. Aaron went 2 for 2 on his best bets on Friday at Del Mar, so make sure you are subscribed to the pod to never miss a best bet!
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John C. Mabee Stakes, Del Mar, Race #9
While I am not generally a hammer the favorite kind of bettor, #4 Medoro is an exception. She’s been consistent her entire career with nine starts and nine in the money finishes, including five wins. She loves Del Mar, loves the distance and can make her own race sitting close to the lead in what looks to be a race devoid of pace. You get her here second off the layoff, and her best is already good enough to win this. I sure hope we get 5/2 here.
Let’s look to a bit of a price in second with #2 Public Assembly. She ran well in California early this year and handled the Del Mar turf in the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon on return. There were always expectations for her, and now she’s late in the 4-year-old season with a chance to improve. This may be the last time she is 6-1 versus a non-grade 1 field.
#3 Mission of Joy is worth a look at 12-1. She has had less-than-ideal trips in her last couple of races and races good enough to win a year ago.
#7 Gimme a Nother ships in from the east coast for Graham Motion, who generally is very good with this move. She is a likely winner, but I would want more than 3-1 to put a bet in on her.
Top 4: 4-2-3-7
The Bet: $50 Win #4
Juvenile Fillies Turf, Del Mar, Race #7
I love playing these two-year-old turf races since you can see big improvements and prices here. Let’s go to #11 Yours Sincerely at 5-1 on top. She had an awful break last time out and absolutely rolled him with a devastating kick. She showed more pace in Europe, so I expect the break to be better today and there is a bunch of pace to chase in here.
#8 Queen Bay will be part of the pace, but should be set up well to stretch out to a mile today. She bred to get the distance, and top jock JJ Hernandez takes the call. If she can rate here, she is very dangerous.
#9 Improbable U ran second of Yours Sincerely and is offering a nice price at 12-1. She should sit a nice trip in here, and Rispoli takes the call for Jonathan Thomas. When the two team up, they have a 33% hit rate in the last two years at all tracks and a 40% hit rate (2 for 5) at Del Mar.
The favorite is on the rail, #1 La Ville Lumiere. She’s sprinted twice for the stretch out is a question. She is bred for it, but the rail draw gives her fewer options. She can win, but it’s tough to swallow her as the favorite.
Top 4: 11-8-9-1
The Bets – $50 Win #11
