Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Sunday, January 11 racing card at Aqueduct, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 2.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Bala de Plata (Race 2)
Second Race
1. Bala de Plata
2. Capanaparo
3. Southeastern
BALA DE PLATA has flashed big speed while finishing in the exacta in each of his first four starts on dirt for Ness, including a tough beat going this distance two back at Laurel; the one to catch turning back. CAPANAPARO rated professionally, before making a wide bid off the turn and going clear late to win his dirt debut sprinting; looked overmatched when last seen at Keeneland and was given some time; dangerous if he can get the mile while racing with Lasix for the first time. SOUTHEASTERN improved a bit off the layoff two back, after landing in a very fast race first time out; handled this distance well in the maiden victory last time, where he took pressure on the lead and stayed gamely after taking a hard bump at the top of the stretch; threat right back.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other seven races on Sunday’s Aqueduct card.
First Race
1. Coquito
2. Luna Moth
3. Enigmatic
COQUITO hit the exacta in each of his first five starts on this circuit after finding his level last year; finished gamely into a well-rated winner two back, then contested the pace and was run down by a closer last time; looks well-spotted right back off the claim. LUNA MOTH was compromised by a wide trip over a track that favored the rail when claimed for twice this price three starts back, and she has been in too tough in both starts for the new connections; logical dropping down. ENIGMATIC will likely be confronted by COQUITO at some point, but she looks like the main speed in a race that might not be run at a very fast pace; needs her best stepping up.
Third Race
1. Gatsby
2. Looms Boldly
3. Funny Uncle
GATSBY gets to go short as the in-form speed while looking to make it three in a row for these connections; hard to go against. LOOMS BOLDLY has back races that will make him hard on the favorite, and he also has good speed from an outside draw; scored an easy win for this tag two back, then got in way too tough when moved back up in class to face stakes-bound Moe Eighty Eight last time. FUNNY UNCLE was no match for GATSBY when back on short rest to make his first start off the claim in November; has improved in both starts since, including that rallying win here last week; needs a contested pace to come after.
Fourth Race
1. Defended
2. Dream On Cara
3. Problematica
DEFENDED shipped to NY while in form late last year; was unable to seriously threaten tougher when prevailing for third in his first start on this circuit, then conceded the lead after an alert start, before proving to be no match for that same tag last time; steps down in class looking for the right spot. DREAM ON CARA rallied to win back-to-back races sprinting at Saratoga last summer; was on a turnback last time when once again closing late ground to get third last time, though that race setup well for her running style; dangerous closer for a trainer who is 3 for her last 5 off the claim ($9.08 ROI). PROBLEMATICA finished first in four straight races at around this level last winter before arriving in NY, and she also used her ample early speed to win twice for $20k after being claimed by Linda Rice last May; dropping down after cutting a fast pace and fading going seven furlongs last time.
Fifth Race
1. Gypsy Dreaming
2. Lough Currane
3. Grey Ace
GYPSY DREAMING earned Beyers of 70 and 75 in his first two starts as a 3yo; has been steadily dropping in class since then, to no avail, though his early speed has remained intact; one final chance dropping to the bottom. LOUGH CURRANE chased without threat, but was resurgent to get third late when switched back to dirt two back; chased a strong pace behind the top one and gave way last time; drops while picking up a talented young rider. GREY ACE was also outrun by GYPSY DREAMING on that fast early pace last time, and he never landed a blow in that spot; ran a bit better when just getting up for second over LOUGH CURRANE two back; draws outside again looking for the right spot.
Sixth Race
1. Pantherian
2. Miami Kaz
3. Wamo
PANTHERIAN dueled with Wamo and was promoted to first after being herded out by that rival late in the career debut; was once again taken on early by that rival last time, before being run over by a sharp winner in the stretch; tries again with Lasix on, and Prat sticks. MIAMI KAZ only earned a 54 Beyer while in for the price for the Penn National debut, but he looked pretty good winning that race while showing handy speed from the start; wildcard shipping in. WAMO has dueled PANTHERIAN twice recently, but got the maiden win rallying from off the pace two back; logical contender again if he can work out the right trip.
Seventh Race
1. Light the Way
2. Dr. Kraft
3. Bramito
LIGHT THE WAY has downed most of his main rivals in this spot recently while winning five of his last eight starts on dirt; going good now, and likely to be right up close from the start. DR. KRAFT ran well while not quite able to run down LIGHT THE WAY in a similar spot three starts back, and he has held his own in two tougher spots since; has been holding excellent form since the claim last April, and this is his best distance. BRAMITO turned back to win with a 91 Beyer at Saratoga last summer, then rallied gamely along the inside when gaining too late behind the top two in his next start; turns back again to make his first start off the claim.
Eighth Race
1. Probable Angle
2. Power of Women
3. Game and Blue
PROBABLE ANGLE acted up in the gate before being reloaded, then chased gamely before prevailing for third behind a pair of experienced rivals in her debut back in August at Saratoga; has regrouped since then, and returns for a tag with Lasix on. POWER OF WOMEN achieved the best result of the four returning in this spot from the fourth race back on December 7, and she did the hard work in that contest while involved on a strong pace, before settling for second behind a dominant winner; figures tough right back, this time with Lasix on. GAME AND BLUE was a first-time starter when confronted with that fast pace behind POWER OF WOMEN last month, and she did some chasing while staying wide, before checking in a no-threat fourth; can do better with that experience behind her.
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