Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst David Aragona handicaps the Saturday, November 7 racing card at Belmont Park, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 9.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Tap to Open (9th race)
Ninth Race
1. Tap to Open
2. Answered Prayers
3. Bodacious Boy
TAP TO OPEN was never in position to make much of an impact in the Cotillion last time; the outside draw gave her little chance to attain her preferred forward position, and she was also forced to go wide on both turns; actually stayed on pretty well to pass horses for fourth; had been a progressive sort leading up to that race, and should get back to more aggressive tactics here. ANSWERED PRAYERS is getting a class test as she moves up to the graded stakes level, but she’s been improving all year; caught a tough rival at Churchill last time but gamely pursued that foe while easily clear of the rest. BODACIOUS BAY is the horse to beat off her Cotillion victory; ran a career-best first off the trainer switch to Saffie Joseph, but she did benefit from an absolutely perfect trip; want to see her do it again at what figures to be a much shorter price.
Here are David’s thoughts on the other nine races on Saturday’s Belmont Park card.
First Race
1. Sports Hero
2. Kaz Oil Changer
3. Wingfoot
There appears to be a fair amount of pace in this race, which should set SPORTS HERO up for a good trip stalking just in behind the speed; has been knocking on the door at this level recently; ran better than it looks last time when making an early move to split horses in upper stretch before flattening out; the slight cutback suits him. KAZ OIL CHANGER is getting needed class relief after getting dueled into submission against a tougher field going a mile last time; ran pretty well when previously dropped in for a tag on Sep. 19, and now finds an even softer spot. WINGFOOT can obviously win if he runs back to his 74 Beyer maiden win at Saratoga, but he was beating a pretty weak field that day; want to see him validate that performance against winners.
Second Race
1. Bourbon Madness
2. She’s Slick
3. Market Perception
BOURBON MADNESS has been steadily progressing from race to race; was simply outrun sprinting on debut, then didn’t run as badly as it looks when stuck wide around both turns facing tougher two back; woke up last time when racing in traffic for much of her trip before bursting through for third when finding a seam late; can continue moving forward here and like that Fresu stays put. SHE’S SLICK put in an encouraging effort sprinting on debut at this level; did benefit from a fast pace up front, but she had to navigate traffic while weaving through between horses, not getting clear until the very late stages; is bred to handle added ground. MARKET PERCEPTION launched a wide rally on the far turn before flattening out in the same race the top pick exits; took a big step forward from her lackluster debut at Monmouth and is obviously dangerous if she keeps improving for top connections.
Third Race
1. Apalta
2. Sturdy
3. Dear Christmas
When APALTA has won this year, his victories have come against conditioned claimers, so he has to prove that he can get back to the winner’s circle against an open claiming group; do think he’s run reasonably well in similar spots to this the last couple of times; got mildly unlucky last time when he broke a step slowly and was always racing through kickback behind foes before staying on late; like this claim by Mertkan Kantarmaci, who names a live rider. STURDY seemed to always be playing catch-up out of the Wilson Chute last time; that was an off the turf race dominated by horses who were forward and inside; makes a ton of sense here if new trainer Rob Falcone can get him back to some of his prior efforts. DEAR CHAIRMAN drops in class after running respectably against a tougher NY-bred allowance field last time; hasn’t run particularly fast races recently, but his early speed makes him the one to catch on the front end.
Fourth Race
1. Gus’s Boy
2. Never Scared
3. Jersey Guy
Giving one more chance to GUS’S BOY, who ran like a horse who lacked the fitness to go two turns on debut; failed to really move forward on synthetic last time, but he didn’t seem to be getting over that surface through the middle of the race before staying on mildly at the end; now adds blinkers, which may provide the added focus that he lacked last time; the distance, surface, and level all seem right; let’s see if he can finally deliver at a square price. NEVER SCARED debuts for Chad Summers, who can certainly win first time out; doesn’t have an abundance of turf pedigree, but looked to have a high-striding action in one Saratoga workout I could watch this summer, and liked the way she galloped out in that drill. JERSEY GUY spent the first three starts of his career facing tougher company in open maiden special weight races; actually ran pretty well on debut and then again when dropped back in trip to this distance in September; didn’t fare as well at this level last time, but he probably prefers shorter.
Fifth Race
1. In the Dark
2. English Law
3. Sardis
IN THE DARK ran a huge race last time, taking pressure through fast splits on the front; put away the other speeds to open up a lead in upper stretch before getting reeled in by a perfect trip winner; will be tough if he runs back to that performance, and he’s supposed to play out as the controlling speed; have a minor question about him handling added ground, but he showed pretty good stamina last time. ENGLISH LAW exits that same race and definitely has some questions to answer after he was basically eased; probably wasn’t served by getting ridden so aggressively to go after the top pick; has proven he’s capable of handling distances of 9F and beyond when more conservatively ridden; suspect he’ll rebound this time and the price should be fair. SARDIS gets some needed class relief after racing tougher foes in allowance and starter races; has also been concentrating on marathon trips in his recent turf races, so he may appreciate cutting back in distance here; though, he’s another who doesn’t win much.
Sixth Race
1. Senza Parole
2. Beauty Reigns
3. Amalfi Drive
Not trying to beat SENZA PAROLE, who seems to have finally gotten her act together as a 4YO; has been steadily improving all year long, and put in a game effort behind the gate-to-wire winner R Distaster last tie in the Gallant Bloom; once again finds herself in a race lacking pace, but she’s not supposed to be too compromised here given her tactical speed. Main rival BEAUTY REIGNS possesses even less positional speed than the favorite, and that was her undoing in that common race last time out; is another who has been in good form this year, but not sure this is the right setup for her. AMALFI DRIVE doesn’t seem good enough to win based on her recent speed figures, but she’s supposed to play out as the controlling speed; that sprint last time was a two-turn race, so she’s cutting back to a conventional one-turn dirt sprint for the first time since early in her career.
Seventh Race
1. Blazing Tiger
2. Oscar’s Hope
3. Big Destroyer
It’s a pretty big step up from a series of maiden races into stakes company for BLAZING TIGER, but he announced that he was ready to take on better competition with that visually impressive win last time out; was held up in traffic for a long way, looking like he wasn’t going to find room at one point; Franco eventually found a seam between horses and he displayed instant acceleration to win going away in the end; this distance suits him perfectly and like that Franco stays in a race where he certainly had other options. OSCAR’S HOPE hasn’t yet won on the turf, but he’s run well in all of his start on this surface; was unlucky to lose his turf debut in the Mahony after a poor start, and caught a tough allowance field last time. BIG DESTROYER is the one I would want most among several exiting the Bricks and Mortar; broke slowly and was out of position most of the way before rallying through traffic late; should appreciate the slight turnback.
Eighth Race
1. Igniter
2. Sea Strike
3. Ted Noffey
IGNITER will have to produce a career-best effort to take down both favorites, but he seems ready for a step forward; didn’t get a chance to show his true ability last time in the Pennsylvania Derby after getting cut off at the start going a distance that may be too far for him anyway; was a decisive winner over a mile two back, and has shown the ability to rally from just off the pace, which should serve him well in this speed-laden affair. Between the two favorites, have more trust in SEA STRIKE, who has a recency edge on his main rival; just failed to get the distance in the Travers last time, but he showed a level of ability that will be tough for his rivals to match in his dazzling Curlin score; a mile seems like an ideal distance. TED NOFFEY is the main storyline in the race as a returning champion, but he does have several questions to answer; didn’t beat the strongest competition last year, and never faced a taxing pace scenario; appears to be training well, but he has his work cut out for him.
Tenth Race
1. Thirsted
2. Make a Prediction
3. Engraved
Have been waiting for THIRSTED to get back into a turf sprint since watching him compete on this circuit as a 2YO; ran well in his debut going this distance before getting involved in a fast pace second time out; has tried longer on turf almost exclusively since then, but now returns to New York turning back in an appropriate spot. MAKE A PREDICTION is another who ran some decent races sprinting on this circuit last year; has been away for a long time and has changed hands since last seen, but he returns as a new gelding for a capable turf sprint trainer. ENGRAVED has been something of a disappointment for Linda Rice, but he does appear to fit at this level and was arguably catching a tougher field when he stayed on for fourth last time out.
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