Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Thursday, November 5 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Merited (5th Race)
Fifth Race
1. Merited
2. Ghostwritten
3, Big Apple Patrick
MERITED did everything right winning his lone start, a $50K CD MCL, and, I thought, won pretty easily with something to spare. No wonder they come back in the N1X starter race. He’s going to improve here and be a handful – and at a fair price, too, with sloppy-track superstar Hillbilly Daydream taking so much action. All that’s needed getting to GHOSTWRITTEN is putting a line through the route try last out – two previous sprints fit here. BIG APPLE PATRICK is a somewhat funky mover with a sprawling body type, but won his lone sprint start and has looked all right on work video prepping for this long-layoff comeback start.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Thursday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Buckeye Favorite
2. Muriel Sax
3. Flaming Mama
Run a short horse after a long layoff but use waiver claiming to get a race into her before dropping down in class and winning second time back: Know BUCKEYE FAVORITE has it in her — or had it — based on first two starts, races superior to anything anyone else in this race has produced. MURIEL SAX has a disturbing number of performances where she was beaten a long way – culminating in being vanned off last time. If the vets let her run, we have to assume she can perform, and on the other pole from those dismal showings are several runs that could win this. Perhaps not the move from Belterra to Churchill, but a poor start that proved the undoing of FLAMING MAMA last out.
Second Race
1. Sleeper
2. Unknown Mischief
3. Cougar Magnet
A $1K sales purchase debuting for $50K? You love to see it! Neither of the two workout videos up for bargain-rack buy SLEEPER is the 59-second bullet 5f Oct. 16, but I liked the way he breezed (taking into account the class level) in both of them, though his partner in the Oct. 24 gate drill might not be much horse. No work video up for first-timer UNKNOWN MISCHIEF because he’s based with P Lobo at the TTC. The pattern — albeit with an eyebrow-raising number of gate works — and times seem encouraging enough, and here we find a $19K sales buy debuting for $50K. Taking these two somewhat off-the-beaten-path firsters one-two because the shorter prices like COUGAR MAGNET lack appeal. This horse ran fine debuting at this class level, beaten four lengths by the winner, who doesn’t seem like some sort of standout.
Third Race
1. Smoted
2. Anna Bo Banna
3. Cardio Cat
I mean, have to think they were taking an edge debuting SMOTED for $40K at BEL. Not only won by 4 1/2 lengths, but with a challenging trip, too. Went for early lead, supplanted by horse who came over to the fence too quickly, causing jock on Smoted to steady as she stutter-stepped; behind horses in tight around the turn, busted up the fence when a hole opened, quickening nicely for a dirt horse and dominating. Three works since and a good draw – could be odds-on here. ANNA BO BANNA ran too badly to be true last out at KEE after the winning CD debut. Work video of the recent 47-second bullet half-mile; she went solo, steady, solid if unspectacular. Looking for a rebound. CARDIO CAT clearly fits on established form but doubt she goes above her baseline.
Fourth Race
1. Outfielder
2. Trouble Calling
3. Schwarzenegger
Wow – total tactical shift for OUTFIELDER last out as they (apparently) very intentionally held him far off the pace – worked wonders! He applied all that early speed the last 1 1/2 furlongs and won impressively. Solid choice be this one dirt or turf, though TROUBLE CALLING has worked sharply for this over the main track. Horse who upset him two back was flying high at the time, and TC didn’t quite show his best. Loaded with upside, really, though not sure his fundamental ability matches Outfielder’s. Top choice’s pricey stablemate SCHWARZENEGGER proved no more than pace fodder for Outfielder last time – but I’d guess he is no fan of the Keeneland grass course despite having won over it. Would look for much better this time.
Sixth Race
1. Manfredi
2. Single Dot Yaht
3. Couperin
MANFREDI, according to official records, was gelded the day after his Oct. 2 comeback flop at KEE. The horse has proven capable in the past of similarly dismal showings and has bounced back – which I expect here. Connections take advantage of the two-race waiver claiming rule and don’t risk for a tag, and on his day he wins or comes close. My guess is I was a race too early pegging SINGLE DOT YAHT to win last time – but at the same time I could see his form going either way, as he has consistently slid down the claiming ranks. COUPERIN very poor recent form but has been freshened up since the C Hartman barn re-claimed him Sept. 12. Ran two of his better races for Hartman last fall.
Seventh Race
1. Wild Recruit
2. Rochester
3. Fast Joker
Second race in a row with a potentially live horse whose connections waive the claiming price for a second time following a long layoff. There’s always the chance they’re prepping for start number 3 off the bench – but much more likely that the horse for whatever reason underperformed in their comeback race, is capable of much better, and is still valued by connections – which I’d guess is the case with WILD RECRUIT. Away a year when he contested the pace and faded last out, and is capable of much better. ROCHESTER probably has just been overmatched in all his races since beating eight in a $30K maiden. First-time gelding and back at the level he belongs in this $16K N2L claimer. FAST JOKER seems to be asking loudly for the cut-back in distance he gets first race off a Diodoro claim.
Eighth Race
1. Our Patricia Ann
2. Cruising Again
3. Special Liberty
No work video for firster OUR PATRICIA ANN, but the barn always hits at 20% or higher with first-time starters. Dam Jean Elizabeth was an Illinois-bred win machine who did much good work on synthetics but ran the two best races of her life in her only grass tries. Her only other foal to race is Mischievous Richie, a full bro to Ann, just so-so debuting on dirt but easy winner when switched to turf second time out. CRUISING AGAIN set a wild and crazy route pace making her turf debut last out and paid the price late. Seems much more a sprinter and could stick around to deep stretch if able to clear early. Expected more based on work video from SPECIAL LIBERTY in both her starts – and instead got even less second out than first. Some turf in pedigree, though not overwhelmingly slow, and trying to figure out if they’re just casting about for answers with the surface switch, or if there’s stronger intent moving to turf.
Ninth Race
1. Don’s Winner
2. Penalty Box
3. Zimmer
Didn’t fancy DON’S WINNER in his Sept. 27 win because I didn’t think he would get 1 1/8 miles – and while he did, that thought comes into play as he’s cut back to a one-turn mile. Mr. Tapps, third behind Don last out, won well at KEE, and think that was a legit maiden race. Three October works, good draw, and feels like he’s set up for another career best. Doubt PENALTY BOX is really a consistent 90s Beyer kind of horse, as the last figure suggests, but he’s not far from that level and won his last one-turn race, the 7f four back at CD. Speaking of Beyers – a 102 for ZIMMER on debut?! For the most part, the horses behind him that race with established form all got a higher number than standard – which makes one wonder. Twice got onto regular breeze patterns before they had to stop – good to see him making a second start without requiring more time. Pretty nasty kickback in his BEL race, and not only did he run right through it, he ran over that field. Could easily win at a short price, but rail draw going a one-turn mile in a full field is about as tough as it gets.
Tenth Race
1. Clever Miss
2. Stars in My Eyes
3. Peony Park
Can’t muster strong feelings about anyone here, but among the four that exit R6 on Sept. 13 at CD, I’ll take CLEVER MISS, who looked like a winner when she split horses in upper stretch, but then got outkicked. Guessing she moves forward second time out. STARS IN MY EYES did make steady progress after losing her debut at the start, but it’s not like she whistled home – and in fact seemed to go a little flat the last half-furlong. Still a decent candidate to do much better stretching out in distance for her second start. PEONY PARK even with blinkers added for her second start was trying to get out. She ran fine and finished in front of Clever Miss, but CM, to me, has greater upside on the day.
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