🏈 The Ravens Aren’t the Only Team With QB Problems
Quarterback uncertainty is reshaping the Week 9 betting board.
Baltimore will start undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano against Jacksonville tonight, but the Ravens have already acquired veteran Jacoby Brissett from Arizona. Lamar Jackson remains sidelined, and backup Tyler Huntley is out for the season with turf toe.
Seattle: A 4.5-point swing. Sam Darnold is out against Arizona with a quad injury, leaving Drew Lock in line to start despite his own elbow issues. Circa moved the Seahawks from -13 to -8.5.
Cleveland: Deshaun Watson likely out. Watson is in concussion protocol. Dr. David Chao expects him to miss the Saints game, although the Browns haven’t ruled him out. With Shedeur Sanders on deck, Circa moved Cleveland from +1.5 to +3.
Philadelphia: A change by choice. With Jalen Hurts still sidelined, the Eagles are replacing Tanner McKee with Joe Milton III against the Giants (-3). Circa senior risk manager Jeff Davis sees little difference between the two, and the book lowered the total just half a point.
Back to Baltimore: Jacksonville is a 10-point favorite, but Dave Tuley believes the market has overreacted. He points to the Jaguars’ narrow win over an injury-depleted Eagles team and loss to Houston as reasons to question laying double digits on the road.
» Read Tuley’s Takes on every NFL Week 9 game
Some good injury news: Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett have returned to practice after stints on injured reserve.
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🏈 Three NFL Week 9 Bets Worth a Closer Look
I went through Steve Makinen’s NFL analytics report, putting more weight on current ratings, coaches and quarterbacks than old franchise trends.
One underdog stood out: All three of Steve’s ratings systems agree it’s getting too many points, with projected edges ranging from 3.5 to 4.5 points. I found two more plays worth considering, including a total supported by the ratings and a longtime coach’s betting history.
» See my 3 NFL Week 9 best bets in the VSiN Community
Coming later today: Steve Makinen’s own NFL Week 9 Best Bets.
🏈 Miami Loses a Heisman Contender Before Notre Dame
A high ankle sprain has changed the betting market for Saturday’s showdown. Miami star Malachi Toney was injured in Wednesday’s practice and will undergo surgery, with a possible return for the College Football Playoff.
At Circa, Notre Dame moved from -5 to as high as -8.5 before settling at -7.5. Toney, previously the third Heisman choice at +400, is off the board. Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith is now +170, followed by Miami teammate Darian Mensah at +220.
What does Steve Makinen think? He liked Notre Dame -6.5 before the full extent of the injury was known. Asked whether he’d still play -7.5, Steve said yes, but he’d prefer to wait for a possible return to -7 rather than chase the move.
» Read Steve Makinen’s Week 10 college football best bets
» Check the latest Circa college football betting splits
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🏈 Thursday College Football: Another High Total
Two nights of MACtion give way to the American Conference and Sun Belt tonight. UTSA–Florida Atlantic has a total climbing toward the mid-70s. FAU rewarded Over bettors against North Texas last week; Adam Burke examines whether another shootout is in store.
» Read Adam Burke’s Thursday college football picks
MACtion follow-up: Yesterday, we highlighted Makinen’s Effective Play-by-Play Ratings making Central Michigan a 9.2-point favorite despite the Chippewas opening as a 1.5-point underdog. Central Michigan closed -3 and won 35-7.
» Explore Makinen’s Week 10 Effective Play-by-Play Ratings
🏀 The Angle Is Back
Follow The Money producer Luke DiVasta has posted his first college basketball play of the season using “The Angle.” His selection is available in the VSiN Community.
» See Luke’s first pick of the season
» Explore Makinen’s College Basketball Starred Edges — VSiN Pro
Coming later this morning: Adam Burke’s college basketball Best Bets.
DonBest College Basketball Rotation Book: Updated weekly.
» Get the rotation book for $4.99
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🏒 Can McDavid Keep This Going?
Connor McDavid is treating the NHL like a video game. McDavid leads the league with 40 points through 16 games, including 31 assists. Edmonton has the NHL’s top three point producers: McDavid, Leon Draisaitl (29) and Evan Bouchard (28).
VSiN NHL analyst Jonathan Davis sees an opportunity against Anaheim. McDavid has recorded at least two assists in each of his last three regular-season meetings with the Ducks. Anaheim has gone Over in five straight, and nine of the last 12 regular-season meetings have produced at least seven combined goals.
Jonathan’s betting angle: McDavid 2+ points paired with Over 6.5 goals, plus a smaller standalone play on McDavid 2+ points.
» Read JD’s NHL Best Bets at VSiN.com/NHL later today
A Complimentary Pick From Wunderdog, Every Day
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Doc’s Sports: Strike Point Sports
Strike Point Sports has posted three straight winning football weeks, including a 7-Unit Iowa winner Saturday.
