Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Scott Ehlers handicaps the Wednesday, October 28 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 8.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Corona de Oro (8th Race)
Eighth Race
1. Corona de Oro
2. Ortley Avenue
3. Twilight Delight
CORONA DE ORO is by an 11% debut turf sire. His dam went 7-0-0-1 on the sod and earned a modest 10K. Lone grass sibling is 3-1-0-2 and earned 81K (won turf debut). Works continue sharp. What if this colt is better in a sprint? His distance Tommy is a nice 380. This colt ran well in his first three starts, and they were all sprints. Did you notice that he didn’t break sharp in any of those? Team Stewart are 14% with their debut turfers. If all stay in, then we count four speed horses in here. We are going to insist on a good price for this 3YO. ORTLEY AVENUE has had the lead at the first call in six of seven starts. Other speed to the inside and outside won’t matter if this guy can blitz them early. This colt is feeling great and now puts four races together. Yet to try the local sod, and he will have to break in a new jockey, but can’t fault anyone who circles his name. TWILIGHT DELIGHT broke 10th of 11 in his most recent but still beat over half the field home. With a better break, he would have run a Beyer top. He is bred to love a turf sprint with Tomlinsons of 340/392. Team Leitch have a flat bet profit in turf sprints, on the turf, and sprinting.
Here are Scott’s thoughts on the other eight races on Wednesday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Feral
2. Attersee
3. Discotheque
FERAL might be the value. It took eight starts to break his maiden, but what if he got a taste for winning and liked it? He beat first-time winners just before the layoff. He has now run back-to-back Beyer tops. Team Tomlinson are 19% off this type of layoff. Race flow is more than fair, and we like that win rider keeps the call. ATTERSEE got an 88 Beyer the last time that he tried an elongated sprint. This guy has yet to miss the exacta going seven panels. A poor break proved costly in his most recent. New barn is 12% off the claim. This post is fine, and his trip should be the same. DISCOTHEQUE draws the attack post and loves this distance at 5-2-2-0. He didn’t get a ton of play in his most recent when sent off at 14-1 and then tired late. Front bandages were added in that race, so check to see if those are gone today. Class drop is easy to see, but a new jock will be summoned as Irad broke his left ankle and is out for a while. SIX STRING PRINCE exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 77 and 82.
Second Race
1. Rapoport
2. Chanbersville
3. Catch the Breeze
RAPOPORT gets to save all the early ground with his rail draw, but added distance is what we like best. This gelding likes his new barn as he makes his fifth start for team Maker. Did this guy just not dig Kentucky Downs last out? Or was a mile too short? That race did come back key when 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 91 and 90. CHAMBERSVILLE is an improving 3YO, and we love, love, love these types as we get late into the year. That was a Beyer top in his most recent. Team McPeek turns this colt around rather quickly, and we think that is a good sign. Tactical speed in a race with little pace is another plus. CATCH THE BREEZE is just feeling great. His last race came back key when 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 60 and 86. Team McCarthy are 13% with their repeating winners. We like how this guy went from the West Coast to Kentucky and held his good form.
Third Race
1. Harbor Prince
2. Guns Allowed
3. Macchiato
HARBOR PRINCE tries two turns for only the second time, and his first was in start number two (solid second). Figs figure as this gelding puts three races together. Added distance might be the key as his sibs were best going long. Two of three siblings won routing while the outlier went 4-0-2-1. The best was a multiple route winner of 147K. Team Drury are a nice 20% going sprint to route. GUNS ALLOWED did get a 70 Beyer in his second start, and that was way back in March. This new gelding has to be more mature now, and that means faster. Works are solid for team Cox. MACCHIATO has some speed and could find the front end. Form cycle hints at better as this guy drops in class. A pace play first and foremost.
Fourth Race
1. Statutory
2. Spill the Sugar
3. Enticing Moves
STATUTORY only cost 10K, so the drop isn’t as big as it might look on paper. We spy four sibs that earned over 200K. Works are rock solid as this filly puts races together for the first time. Her distance Tomlinson of 421 screams sprint. Here comes a better effort with Arrieta up. SPILL THE SUGAR just ran a Beyer top and did so in only her second start on a fast track. In fact, this 3YO has gotten a Beyer top in both starts going this distance. A better start might help more than anything. ENTICING MOVES has beaten over half the field home in all three of her starts. She has improved her Beyer in all of her starts. Of course, we like this outside post when sprinting. Race flow is average at best, but that just means this 4YO won’t be that far off whoever finds the front end.
Fifth Race
1. Greystone
2. Lahainaluna
3. Caragogo
GREYSTONE can run all day, so 11 furlongs is no problem. Current form is sharp, while last race came back key when 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 96 and 90 (two more finished 2nd with Beyers of 99 and 95). Those double layoff lines three back are water under the bridge as this 6YO strings three races together. Lasix is returned, while race flow is more than fair if all stay in. LAHAINALUNA was denied a clean trip last out. It is never easy to break your maiden going 12 furlongs, but that is what this colt did only two back. Win rider returns and is 24% for Team Sharp. This barn is on a roll this year. A pair of recent works is just right, and notice how fast they were. CARAGOGO is speed. If afforded an early breather, she could prove troublesome to run down. Is this colt a new route horse? A better price than our top two picks, we would think.
Sixth Race
1. Noroomformischief
2. Epic Prankster
3. She’s Not a Joke
NOROOMFORMISCHIEF gets class relief as she drops into starter foes. This filly cuts back a full furlong and did run a Beyer top two back going six panels. Race flow is fast as we spy three in here with early zip. EPIC PRANKSTER popped and stopped off the layoff, but seven furlongs is a tough task off a layoff. This filly has speed and draws outside main pace foes. She gets in light, and that will help her early zip. Wire please. SHE’S NOT A JOKE has some well-spaced works for her return. Is this the type of horse that has trouble versus allowance foes but just seems to click versus easier? Those races two and three back help our case. This mare wants to pass runners, and race flow is more than fair.
Seventh Race
1. Cartier Gold
2. Love Divine
3. Aegis
CARTIER GOLD catches a race light on pace and draws the attack post for the distance. This filly puts races together for the first time and goes second time seven panels. This filly did beat over half the field home in both starts. We like that Saez keeps the call. Lone knock is that team Servis are 0 for 13 second off this type of layoff. LOVE DIVINE was improving by the minute until her most recent when she broke 11th of 12. Out the window that goes. Tactical speed and outside draw go hand in hand all with team Asmussen in your corner. AEGIS exits a key race where 2 of 8 returned to win with figs of 84 and 78 (another finished 2nd with a 77 Beyer). Turfway works are well spaced, and this horse has never run poorly when sprinting. Is this filly the speed? GET INTO IT is by an 11% debut sire. Her dam went 20-5-3-3 and earned 226K. Two of four sibs won, and both beat winners (946K and 65K). M’S MABEE BABY exits a key race where 3 of 9 returned to win with figs of 70, 55, and 73.
Ninth Race
1. Perpetua
2. Yasmin
3. Sharp Mindset
PERPETUA ran evenly in her debut even though she broke last. That race came back key when 2 of 3 returned to win with figs of 69 and 64. Lone sibling is 25-1-3-4 and earned 66K. Local works are well spaced. How much has this filly matured since last being seen in July? YASMIN tried better in her first two starts at Oaklawn. Her turf debut two back was better than it looks, and she was right there with a furlong to go. Her most recent was poor, but it was also her first start at KD. She puts three races together and should love sprinting with a huge 453 distance Tomlinson. SHARP MINDSET ran OK in her first two starts. That wasn’t the case in her third start, so did something go awry, hence the time off? Nothing wrong with her return race at Horseshoe Indy, where the racing is improving by the minute. This filly gets in super light as she tries the dirt for the first time. Trainer stats are just good across the board. MO BISCUIT exits a key race where 3 of 7 returned to win with figs of 49, 62, and 63.
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