UFC Vegas 123 Predictions:
The UFC Meta/APEX facility hosts this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 123 event. Preliminary action starts at 2 p.m. PT, with the main card beginning at 5 p.m. PT.
The card features 13 scheduled bouts, six of which are at Welterweight (170 pounds) and above. Eleven US fighters will be featured on this slate, but only two will have the advantage of minimal travel compared to opponents who must fly in from foreign countries and then make weight to compete in Las Vegas.
This fight slate is comprised of relatively novice, debuting and upstart athletes, as the UFC strives to place the abundance of low-end fringe talent on its APEX cards.
It’s my approach to always support the UFC. They produce 42 to 45 live events a year, which is no easy task, but this fight card is packed with athletes whose talent doesn’t meet the baseline standard for UFC fighters.
Any wondering why UFC finishes are on the rise? It’s because mismatches in matchmaking are far more frequent now that the roster includes some 200 fighters too many!
Last week, Grant Dawson -120 earned a one-sided decision over Tajik fighter Nurullo Aliev. Dawson’s grit ruled the day, and his wrestling sank his opponent. The fight ended in a unanimous decision, so the added .25u wager for the fight to end in split/Maj. Decision is a loser.
Digital profit 2026: 22-17-1 +7.57u
Renato Moicano -115 vs. Tom Nolan -105
Lightweight (155 pounds) main event
This main event features Renato Moicano, a 37-year-old warrior with deep experience. He’s faced the division’s elite and is quite verbally expressive inside and outside the cage.
Moicano faces a man four inches taller, Aussie Tom Nolan, who has a slight reach advantage and is also 11 years younger at 26.
Nolan is 4-1 in UFC competition, and since his debut loss to Nikolas Motta, he has won every fight while stepping up in competition with each opponent.
His last victory was an impressive unanimous decision over France’s Fares Ziam, which clearly set him up to face a high-profile opponent like Moicano in a UFC main event.
As with many Aussies, Nolan’s game is striking-based. He began his career on the Rugby pitch, then transitioned into MMA as a youth. Nolan’s height, reach advantage, striking, and youth will be weapons he can use against a man much older, more experienced, and a highly dangerous BJJ savant.
Renato ‘Money’ Moicano is one of the more gregarious athletes in the organization; his mixed martial arts game has been resurrected because of his intellect, his persona, and his poop talking.
Moicano was one of the few athletes who, years ago, understood how important popularity, magnetism and colorful presentation could be when folded into the direction the UFC had taken.
He transitioned from a mousy, awkward submission fighter to a verbose, podcasting, colorful character who spews, taunts, and challenges whenever a microphone is available.
Moicano evolved his persona in short order and became ‘Money Moicano,’ a loud, turgid, ranting personality that fans immediately gravitated toward.
Moicano’s transformation has captured the imagination of fans and the UFC, and his personality shift also coincided with a change in his fight results. Moicano rattled off four impressive wins from 2022 to 2024 before then-champion Islam Makhachev thwarted his schtick in a 2024 title fight.
Moicano never would have received that Lightweight Championship opportunity before he had created ‘Money Moicano.’
Saturday, Moicano, the personality and the BJJ/Muay Thai black belt, takes on an Aussie badger in Nolan, who has several physical advantages.
Once this fight begins, I look for Nolan to maintain distance and rely upon his stand-up. Nolan will not want to engage, let alone roll with Moicano, for that’s the single most efficient path for the Brazilian to get his hand raised.
No, Nolan must make this a stand-up fight and force Moicano to strike with him to enter the pocket, then attempt to clinch, clasp, and grab the Aussie, force him to the fence, and then onto the mat for a flogging.
Where this fight takes place will be critical, as Moicano will struggle to manage Nolan’s stand-up, while Nolan will give away much expertise if this fight hits the mat.
When the smoke clears, I expect Nolan, who opened -170 and is now darn near a pick ‘em, to have successfully managed Moicano’s takedown advances. I believe he will be tall, strong, and savvy enough to stay standing for much of this fight. Nolan’s height, reach, and especially his youth play in his favor the longer this fight goes, despite Moicano’s five-round championship experience.
In with the new and out with the aged!
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -210
Jeong Yeong Lee -175 vs. Julian Erosa +145
Featherweight (145 pounds)
South Korean Lee arrives at the APEX after dropping his last two fights to authentic featherweight talent, following close decision wins in his first two UFC battles. Those wins were against athletes no longer competing in the organization.
Lee will give up height and reach in this fight. However, he will be seven years younger than his opponent, which could give Lee an edge as he seeks to get his hand raised and avoid being cut by the UFC. Desperation is a great motivator, and besides his youth, Lee has plenty to fight for: another UFC contract.
Lee’s well-rounded attack can be exposed when facing world-class grappling talent, which his opponent happens to be.
In Julian Erosa, we have one of the more inconsistent fighters by way of results in the UFC, as well as one who holds great acumen in BJJ and grappling.
Erosa is also coming off two defeats, but they were to Melquizael Costa and Lerryan Douglas, two well-versed mixed martial artists. Also, in the Douglas fight, Erosa was injured, and he looked it in defeat.
Erosa, with a wealth of UFC experience, is looking to retire with a win over this mid-level fighter in Lee.
Erosa’s size, grappling, and drive to win put him in a great position to take the offensive, since he doesn’t really need to deal with his opponent’s power, which is something Erosa struggles with, as Lee isn’t shown to have fight-ending power.
Once the fight begins, it seems only a matter of time before Erosa clamps onto his South Korean opponent, drives him against the fence, then takes it to the mat, where his grappling expertise will drown him.
Erosa will benefit from knowing that, in this fight, his opponent’s power is nowhere near on par with the men he has faced recently. This will give Erosa the guts, grit, determination, and drive to floor Lee, then choke him out.
UFC Vegas 123 Best Bet: Julian Erosa +145
Erosa via submission is also a reasonable thought.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Under -135
My final releases for this week’s UFC Vegas 123 will be available Friday morning across all podcast platforms as well as on the GambLou.com webpage. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
