Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Wednesday, September 23 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 9.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Rockfest (9th race)
Ninth Race
- Rockfest
2. D Bigalow
3. Telecaster
How can I put this gently? The jockey who rode ROCKFEST in all his turf tries struggles to get into a rhythm with his mount – this horse is a little awkward, it seems, in the best case, and the combination of horse and rider has worked against him in all the recent trips. Kind of weird that he very much looks put together like a route horse but has come forward sprinting. Besides the relatively tough trips, he somehow managed to catch three very legitimate winners while racing during the dying days of Hawthorne. Strong fit for $50K and should get a decent trip. Granted, it was forever ago, but I look at the way D BIGALOW ran fresh on TP Tapeta in December 2024 and wonder if coming back fresh in his turf debut (the trainer has good numbers with first-time turfers) doesn’t bring out something better than we were seeing last form cycle. Might be able to slip into the pocket behind a quick pace. TELECASTER might be considerably better turf sprinting than his race three back implies, but with all his speed and with all the other speed entered, this might be the wrong race for him.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other eight races on Wednesday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Abundance
2. Problem Solved
3. My King Air
ABUNDANCE away from races for the better part of 16 months – but should get the right price to live with that – potential value that won’t adhere to the favorite in this race. Claimed for $30K, they got one race out of him, then the layoff – pretty positive sign he returns for a $20K running for a rich purse. No idea what the works mean since we can’t see them – and doubt the big gap from 7/22 to 9/6 is a deal-breaker. HAW did have a clocker after they ceased racing, but I wonder if all the breezes there were actually getting timed. Was clearly “fast enough” before the layoff, and his last two routes make this cut back to 6 1/2f seem like a good thing, his lone sprint try coming on debut sans Lasix and blinkers. PROBLEM SOLVED is due to regress off the near miss Aug. 23 but could take a slight step back and still contend on a nominal class hike off claim. Did lose a lot of ground last out. The fair price on MY KING AIR probably is 2-3X the price you’re going to get first time off the Sharp (5-12 this meet) claim and with J Ortiz named.
Second Race
1. Spurgeon
2. Laughnowcrylater
3. Suited and Booted
SPURGEON did get a decent setup, winning last out, but even accounting for that, ran an impressive race relative to the class level, and what’s notable is how much more quickly than usual he jumped into the fray. Just wasn’t up to MSW competition but aired for a $30K tag, immediately claimed, kept at higher class levels, then aired again (and claimed again) when dropped back to $30K – all of which makes this $30K N3L starter a strong fit. Sailed home in his lone CD one-turn mile try. Some concern that he gets mired down inside behind a moderate pace. LAUGHNOWCRYLATER is going to be overbet based on the two big figs from last fall – which he could not duplicate in his lone race this year — and the presence of jockey J Ortiz, who the money has been eagerly following. Other than a gap 8/15 – 9/2, he’s worked regularly since the June 26 comeback run – maybe there wasn’t a race for him at Ellis, and maybe connex didn’t want to Ellis – and he’s back at the same starter level. I doubt he returns to last fall’s form, especially at a one-turn mile, as the horse definitely seems to prefer true routes and, in fact, debuted over 1 1/16 miles. Maybe regarding SUITED AND BOOTED too lightly, but he’s not only had only one race in 15 months and none since October, he’s been a pace-dependent one-run closer. That 9/12 half-mile from the gate was more like a 6f solo race when you factor in the long gallop out through which he was strongly urged.
Third Race
1. Doctor Jeff
2. League of Legends
3. Social Hour
The beauty of DRF Formulator is you can set the PPs for lifetime and easily look way back into a horse’s career, which can be very useful in cases like DOCTOR JEFF. 12-line pps he’s all turf and synthetic, and the “dry fast” dirt record shows up 3-0-0-0. First of all, the wet-track win came over a good surface – his debut, a BEL MSW, albeit rained off grass. Next out, he set the pace and faded to fifth, hardly a bad effort, in the G2 Saratoga Special, and the following May, racing after a long winter break, he flopped in the G3 Chick Lang and didn’t start again for about 10 months. Fourth dirt start came when he returned from that long break, a perfectly acceptable tiring 7th beaten less than 5 lengths in an LRL N2X allowance. Sure, it’s a major claim and drop, but if he wins and gets claimed, connections one month after acquiring the horse come out about $15K ahead. Think he’s well enough meant, and that Ortiz will get him off the fence soon after the start to work out an outside closing run into a fast pace. LEAGUE OF LEGENDS went over the top when last seen following to high-end performances, but even at age 9 should be able to contend at this $12.5K claiming class, provided he gets the pace setup he requires as a one-run closer – and it certainly looks like he will. SOCIAL HOUR way, way, way down in class, from $50K last time. Doubt he hits his baseline, and drawn inside will be forced to use his speed and get too much of hot fractions.
Fourth Race
1. Hesper
2. Tiger’s Legacy
3. Dr Fenn
Why not HESPER? He’s been fast enough in seven of his last eight races, and this placement – $16K N3L — looks a lot like his winning performance June 26 in a $20K N2L claimer, albeit against just five rivals. Fresh is the way to go with a horse like this, and why not enter to win right now since he showed last FG meet he’s not going to win an LA-bred N1X allowance. As mentioned many times in this space, light workout patterns and slow workout times are the rule not the exception with this barn. TIGER’S LEGACY has gotten the better part of seven weeks to recover from one of his stronger performances on Aug. 16 – which seems important with a horse who has struggled to string together contending races. Looks like he found his level last out, dropped down to $16K when beaten by horse coming down in class after a strong run for $30K conditioned claiming who pressed a moderate pace and got the jump. DR FENN is in and out and kind of slow but has an interesting work pattern, and this barn continues to send live horses who have been freshened into this meet.
Fifth Race
1. She’s Toasty
2. Soul of the Night
3. Passage Du Desir
Quite liked both of SHE’S TOASTY’s recent work videos, one outside a partner from the gate, the other inside her workmate going from the pole. I mean, to me, those were pretty good works for an MSW debuter, and this $50K sales buy debuts for $150K maiden-claiming. Good outside draw if she can show some speed, which seems to be in play. Taking both Cox entries here, SOUL OF THE NIGHT and PASSAGE DU DESIR, though not much feel for either, and in part because the limited work video from the other first-timers didn’t catch the eye. SOUL OF THE NIGHT debuted on turf but does not have a pedigree, FWIW, that would in any way preclude dirt. Most of the beaten lengths there behind winner who returned to capture KD stakes. PASSAGE DU DESIR didn’t really look ready for her debut – head held too high, traveling poorly down backstretch and around turn. Leveled out a little while not competitive in a solid Ellis MSW and should do much better.
Sixth Race
1. Just Do Believe
2. Revel Toast
3. Tetiaroa
JUST DO BELIEVE drops from consecutive allowance wins into a $50K B claimer, yet runs for a purse larger than the last two combined – can see why they bothered shipping her from East Coast. Comes out of the two Charles Town two-turn 7f races, but absolutely nothing wrong with her win three back going 6f on the full-sized oval. Trip she got there is the trip she gets here – a perfect one stalking a fast, contested pace. Hard to know what to make of REVEL TOAST’s recent work video – depends what you think of the first-timer Gut Reaction later on the card – she went about the same as he did. Just off the pace in her better runs, but see her dropping farther back this time, which would be to her benefit. Voided claim in April but they waive the claiming price coming back from the long break. Not totally sold. TETIAROA needed two tries at IND to finally knock out a first-level allowance win, that last-start seven-length victory not especially impressive visually. She’s one of a few plausible winners, but drawn inside, and with her running style, I doubt the race shapes in her direction.
Seventh Race
1. When I Go
2. My Birthday Gift
3. Gut Reaction
WHEN I GO forced pace, held decently for fourth of 12 in sloppy-track debut: Winner of that race came back to capture a CD N1X allowance, Beyer jumping from 48 to 66, and, in fact, every single horse to have run back out of the race earned a considerably higher figure – I just wonder if the number is too low. Tracking on rail last out, hole opened past the 3f marker, he shot through with strong acceleration, but in the end probably moved touch too soon. Galloped out all right vis-à-vis this stretch to a mile, which I think he will stay. MY BIRTHDAY GIFT interestingly was on pace, faded late in a decent try two back, then well off the leaders breaking from a very bad post, 12, in the 1 1/2-turn Ellis mile. Made steady wide progress and had a right to flatten out late, which he did, but another solid try. Lands in what looks like a pretty mild MSW. GUT REACTION RNA’d as a yearling for just $55K – can see why – he appears to be a large, growthy type who might still be a bit backward and probably was quite gawky as a yearling. Can see why he debuts at a mile rather than sprinting. Guess I’d rate the two work videos as decent enough.
Eighth Race
1. Pagode
2. Universe
3. Penalty Box
Not a bad field but still could see PAGODE going meaningfully below his 8-5 morning line. Is he a seconditis horse? Maybe – I don’t think so quite yet, though. Has had trouble maintaining a racing pattern, is the main thing. His long layoff comeback in June was very good, considering the race flow – and got him sold for $255K. What really sealed the deal for me was work video both at SAR and at CD, all the drills I watched very good, including the recent one at Churchill, in which he went solo and without blinkers and still impressed. Have never been a UNIVERSE fan, and the speed-figure and running line from his last race look better on paper than he looks on replay. Still, that was a decidedly improved run in a pretty good field for the level, and FWIW, out of nowhere he popped up with a big gallop out. I do think that might prove meaningful – as in this horse might really want 1 3/16 or 1 1/4 miles. Can see him taking another forward step. PENALTY BOX looks a little iffy to truly see out the distance, but they did try him at 1 1/4 miles once, and I think he could be in for a great trip pressing the moderate pace of AMOR PATRIAE, who I’d guess is using this comeback run as a get-fit race.
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