Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, September 23, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Chris Sale’s teams are 20-2 (+15.48 units) in his last 22 starts as a home night favorite of -188 or more
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-271 vs CIN)
Trend: Under the total is 35-15-1 (+18.35 units) when Sonny Gray’s teams are in the -130 to -155 favorite line range since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-BOS (o/u at 6.5)
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 181-96 SU (+46.35 units, ROI: 16.7%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-131 at ATH)
#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: PITTSBURGH -143 vs STL (simulation has line at PIT -189)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are around the profitability line at 217-174 for +2.43 units (ROI: 0.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (-131 at ATH), DETROIT (-169 vs WSH), NY METS (-109 at TEX)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. For the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 95-139 for -48.79 units and an ROI of -20.9%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (-131 vs TOR), BALTIMORE GAME 2 (-122 vs TOR), HOUSTON (+108 at SEA)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, with a couple weeks left, they are now 157-242 start for -35.82 units (-9% ROI) after losing about 46 units over the last three months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+118 at PIT), COLORADO (+130 vs AZ), KANSAS CITY (-102 vs CWS), ATHLETICS (+109 vs LAA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 116-61 for -19.50 units, ROI -11%!
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-271 vs CIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season has been slower than usual, 320-388 for -25.49 units, ROI -3.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+186 at LAD), TAMPA BAY (+113 at NYY), HOUSTON (+108 at SEA), NY METS (-109 at TEX)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 257-183 for +40.71 units, an ROI of +9.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-126 at PHI), BALTIMORE GAME 2 (-122 vs TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-118 at KC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 183-223 start for -54.41 units (ROI -13.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 85-106 for -20.45 units and a solid ROI of -10.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – PHILADELPHIA (+105 vs MIL)
3+ games – CLEVELAND (+113 at BOS), LA DODGERS (-224 vs SD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 169-192 for +4.53 units.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-102 vs CWS)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 427-491 but for +84.18 units and an ROI of 9.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+138 at DET), TORONTO GAME 2 (+102 at BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 55-27 SU for +13.61 units (ROI: 16.6%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-169 vs WSH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 482-463 (51%) for +15.47 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-127 vs HOU)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2322-2909 (44.3%) for -270.88 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+114 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (+182 at LAD)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 694-578 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +23.88 units, for an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+130 vs MIN), SEATTLE (-127 vs HOU)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 119-175 SU (-29.40 units, ROI: -10%) as
underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+113 at BOS), MIAMI (+147 at CHC)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 181-96 SU (+46.35 units, ROI: 16.7%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-131 at ATH)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams that have won their last three games and are road favorites versus an opponent with a losing record have gone 119-49 (+33.33 units, ROI: 19.8%) in their last 168 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-162 at COL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-118 at KC)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 224-170 (+28.09 units, ROI: 7.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+113 at BOS)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 282-182 in their last 464 tries (+47.02 units, ROI: 10.1%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+113 at BOS)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 169-175 (-78.94 units, ROI: -22.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-224 vs SD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 657-658 for +8.99 units, good for +0.7% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN FRANCISCO +134 (+31 diff), CINCINNATI +217 (+20), SAN DIEGO +186 (+18), TORONTO GAME 2 +109 (+13), MIAMI +147 (+12)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PITTSBURGH -143 (+46 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX -118 (+28), BOSTON -137 (+19), DETROIT -169 (+11)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 run edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 30-18-2 for +9.20 units and an ROI of 23.4%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TB-NYY OVER 6.5 (+1.0), NYM-TEX OVER 7.5 (+1.0)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) ST LOUIS (76-81) at (952) PITTSBURGH (80-77)
Trend: Over the total is 53-39-2 (+10.10 units) when PIT is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): STL-PIT (o/u at 7)
(953) MILWAUKEE (98-59) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (87-70)
Trend: PHI is 17-34 (-14.84 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+105 vs MIL)
(955) CINCINNATI (73-84) at (956) ATLANTA (92-65)
Trend: CIN is 51-51 (-20.55 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+1.5 at ATL)
Trend: Chris Sale’s teams are 20-2 (+15.48 units) in his last 22 starts as a home night favorite of -188 or more
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-271 vs CIN)
(957) MIAMI (77-80) at (958) CHICAGO-NL (87-70)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 21-27 (-22.17 units) when he starts at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-179 vs MIA)
(959) ARIZONA (83-74) at (960) COLORADO (57-100)
Trend: Under the total is 43-29-4 (+11.10 units) in AZ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-COL (o/u at 11.5)
(961) SAN DIEGO (87-70) at (962) LOS ANGELES-NL (97-60)
Trend: Robbie Ray’s teams are 33-13 (+21.87 units) when he starts against NL opponents since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+182 at LAD)
(965) TAMPA BAY (96-61) at (966) NEW YORK-AL (90-67)
Trend: Gerrit Cole’s teams are 12-12 (-7.44 units) in his last 24 starts vs Tampa Bay
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-136 vs TB)
(967) CLEVELAND (82-75) at (968) BOSTON (84-73)
Trend: Foster Griffin’s teams are 12-4 (+10.71 units) when he starts as a plus-money underdog since the beginning of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+113 at BOS)
Trend: Under the total is 35-15-1 (+18.35 units) when Sonny Gray’s teams are in the -130 to -155 favorite line range since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-BOS (o/u at 6.5)
(969) CHICAGO-AL (81-76) at (970) KANSAS CITY (67-90)
Trend: KC is 13-32 (-18.71 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-102 vs CWS)
(971) LOS ANGELES-AL (60-97) at (972) ATHLETICS (62-95)
Trend: Over the total is 45-28-3 (+14.20 units) in ATH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-ATH (o/u at 9.5)
(975) WASHINGTON (74-84) at (976) DETROIT (74-84)
Trend: WSH is 49-31 (+9.51 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at DET)
(977) MINNESOTA (74-84) at (978) SAN FRANCISCO (65-93)
Trend: Over the total is 47-26-7 (+18.40 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-SF (o/u at 8)
Trend: SF is 36-60 (-10.59 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+130 vs MIN)
(981) TORONTO (77-80) at (982) BALTIMORE (76-81) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Max Scherzer’s teams are 28-11 (+12.61 units) in his last 39 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO GAME 1 (+109 at BAL)
Trend: Chris Bassitt’s teams are 29-16 (+6.63 units) when he starts in day games vs opponents with a losing record in last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (-131 vs TOR)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #9: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City, Tue 9/22-Thu 9/24
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 32-11 (74.4%, +23.04 units) when hosting the Chicago White Sox
– The ROI on this trend is 53.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-102 vs CWS)
Trend: Under the total is 15-3 (83.3%) in the last 18 meetings at Kauffman Stadium as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-KC (o/u at 8.5)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:05 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): TORONTO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, SAN FRANCISCO, NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, NY YANKEES
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Friday, September 25)
SPONSORED
RECORD BREAKER! ROBERT FERRINGO just had one of the biggest football weeks in Doc’s Sports’ 56-year history! Robert banked +3,720 with his football picks (documented HERE) and added another +2,350 with his football props (documented HERE). That is an electrifying +6,070 in winnings and he’s looking to add to it this weekend!
Access his premium picks at Doc’s Sports with a free $60 new member account. Get your free trial here!
