Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Patrick Moquin handicaps the Wednesday, July 22 racing card at Colonial Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: White Rocks (4th race)
Fourth Race
1. White Rocks
2. Delray
3. Kinzie Queen
WHITE ROCKS is an overwhelming contender coming out of second-level allowance company at Churchill Downs, where he finished second with an 85 Beyer on June 11; if the Delacour trainee carries that form to Colonial, she should not have an issue against these; her stalking style allows her to get close more often than not, and though she is looking for her first win since February last year, much of that can be ascribed to the company she has kept. DELRAY is another one trying to snap a long losing streak, though she does not offer quite as much upside shipping from Parx; that being said, she cut back to six furlongs last time out and matched the top pick’s 85 Beyer finishing second in a sharp allowance that included graded stakes winner Kappa Kappa; she’s ready to take this trip. KINZIE QUEEN has been keeping elite company since her 3-year-old campaign, serving as a witness to history in the Grade 1 Alabama and mixing it up rather well in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan; she didn’t show in a $150,000 stakes at Delaware last time, but she could improve in allowance company.
Here are Patrick’s thoughts on the other seven races on Wednesday’s Colonial Downs card.
First Race
1. Sedenya
2. Shesa Mischieflady
3. Scat
SEDENYA didn’t have much to show in two starts last year, but she will make her 3-year-old debut for the lowest claiming tag of her career and could fire fresh for McMahon; there’s not a ton to go on beyond that, besides the fact that she clearly seemed to figuring things out through some rough trips when she was last seen; she offers upside in a lacking field. SHESA MISCHIEFLADY returned as a 3-year-old last month and ran a solid race on synthetic, running third with a 40 Beyer in a $7,500 maiden claimer; she showed next to nothing in her lone start on dirt last year, so this isn’t a slam dunk, but she’s clearly in form against a group with plenty to prove. SCAT has run well back in her two starts for McCutchen, which were separated by the better part of a year; she earned a much better 43 Beyer in her juvenile debut than she did when she returned in June, but those numbers only mean so much based on the way she has been finishing; at the very least, the class relief should get her closer.
Second Race
1. Keys
2. Sassy Sof
3. Adelita
KEYS will make her debut for Casse with plenty of upside, as she has been prepping at Colonial for nearly a month ahead of this debut; sire Upstart wins with 17% of juvenile firsters and has naturally passed down plenty of ability in dirt sprints; the dam Street Minstrel was a talented but lightly raced allowance runner at Oaklawn and has since produced the Grade 1 winner Street Band, as well as stakes winner Henro and three-time turf winner Trobairitz; a lot to like about the $150,000 purchase. SASSY SOF will make her debut for D’Angelo and has been training exceptionally well at Palm Meadows; sire Into Mischief has a reputation that precedes him and strikes with 15% of juvenile firsters; the dam Golden Curl was a stakes winner on turf and has not yet produced another starter; dirt might not be the only surface that works for this one, but it’ll probably do the trick. ADELITA will switch from turf to dirt in her second start for Campbell, though her third on the grass last time was admirable for a debut; both the sire and dam were stakes winners in dirt sprints, so this could be a winning move.
Third Race
1. Diane Lee
2. Roadrunner the Cat
3. Pearl of Pearl
DIANE LEE is coming off a pair of fourths at Laurel and has not won since early September last year, but the filly will now drop in for a tag and retain Ruiz in the saddle for Milosevic; the closing filly has run at long odds lately and seems to be in a much more suitable spot to make up the ground at the end in this one. ROADRUNNER THE CAT is the likely pacesetter in this field for Russell and might be hard to catch; she returned from a lengthy break last month and faded to a distant fourth in a conditioned claimer, but that effort can be excused because of the time off; she still had plenty of speed that day and might have her wind in the late stages at Colonial, where she looked strong last August. PEARL OF PEARL has won her last two starts for D’Angelo and will keep climbing up the ladder at Colonial; she has shown a clear desire to win in her victories at Gulfstream and Colonial, and though she will have to improve against these, she has been trending in the right direction and deserves the chance.
Fifth Race
1. K. C. Chief
2. Summer Bee
3. Slippin Jimmy
K. C. CHIEF might not take this trip to Colonial, but the gelding has improved in each start since returning from a long layoff in May for D’Angelo; the gelding has only handled turf a handful of times in his career and didn’t appreciate it at all fresh off the break this year, but he has improved on synthetic and might have needed that start; if he can’t handle the grass, he doesn’t have to come here. SUMMER BEE dropped in for a $12,500 tag last time out and improved again to win with a 72 Beyer; Dini does not bring many runners down here to compete, but it’s hard to argue this gelding isn’t the right fit for this group; he has found more and more in recent starts at Laurel and Monmouth and should hang around in this group. SLIPPIN JIMMY finished third at long odds at this level off the layoff last time and might earn more respect after outrunning his 20-1 odds; he has not won since August 2024 and will cut back to 5 1/2 furlongs, but at least one of those could be a good thing, as he always seemed to handle sprints a little better; he deserves a second look.
Sixth Race
1. Beekman Street
2. Celtic Prince
3. Keen Talent
BEEKMAN STREET stepped up to a first-level allowance off the claim for Russell last time out and ran off the board, despite earning a near-best 73 Beyer for his performance; that suggests the trainer was suspecting improvement from a recent acquisition, but her confidence wasn’t entirely rewarded; he will drop down to a more appropriate level this time, and the connections’ original assessment should not be overlooked as he gets class relief. CELTIC PRINCE will remove blinkers after getting the worst of a massive blanket finish at Laurel last month, when he finished fourth by less than a length with a 64 Beyer; he has now run two strong races since re-entering Brion’s barn; maybe the equipment change gets him in the right state for another stretch battle. KEEN TALENT switched back to turf last time out and took a nice step forward in a late-flying performance, where he made up nearly seven lengths in the stretch to come up just short in a conditioned claimer; Farrior doesn’t often switch to the grass, so his decision to do so here is clearly in the gelding’s long-term interest.
Seventh Race
1. Siouxse
2. Candy Rockette
3. Integrity
SIOUXSE shipped to Aqueduct for a first-level allowance last month and encountered a group that might have been tougher than the $125,000 stakes she tried at Laurel on Black-Eyed Susan Day; Motion clearly thinks highly of the filly and he has found a more forgiving locale for her third start off the break; she will cut back to a mile, a distance she seemed to relish as both a juvenile and 3-year-old. CANDY ROCKETTE will make her first start for new trainer Russell after running four times for Mott to begin her career; the filly has earned two 71 Beyers so far, but one of those didn’t prove effective in a first-level allowance at Churchill Downs; the deep closer has been training well at Laurel ahead of this switch to the Mid-Atlantic. INTEGRITY shipped to Aqueduct for a first-level allowance last month and faded well back after scrapping for the early lead; she looked sharp on the front end in her maiden victory at Gulfstream in April, and she may have a better opportunity to build on that effort in a more forgiving locale.
Eighth Race
1. Little Georgie
2. Charlotte’s Cay
3. Charlibu
LITTLE GEORGIE is a standout contender shipping to Colonial for Joseph; the filly has clearly found another gear since switching to the turf at Gulfstream in February, having finished second in back-to-back maiden special weights in April and May; she will return off a short layoff and should keep moving forward. CHARLOTTE’S CAY did not improve in her second career start for Trombetta, when she shipped to Colonial and threw away a late lead to finish fifth with a 62 Beyer; she flashed far more early speed in that route effort than she did sprinting at Monmouth in May; the mile might be a sort of happy medium for her. CHARLIBU will make her first start for Russell and seems to be offering a slew of mixed signals; on one hand, sire Charlatan has passed down very little route-running ability on turf in his stud career, but the dam was a stakes-placed turf sprinter who also won at a mile; moreover, this filly’s recent workouts have been excellent and Russell has clearly been preparing her for a debut on turf; wait and see.
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