Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, July 21, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* On Under projections so far when the SM rating simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Unders are 26-10 for +14.2 units and an ROI of 39.4%.
TODAY’s MATCH: PIT-NYY UNDER 9.5 (-1.0)
* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 395-196 (66.8%) for +60.76 units and an ROI of 10.3%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-150 vs MIN), PHILADELPHIA (-126 vs LAD)
* Teams on 7+ game winning streaks playing against an intraleague opponent with a win percentage within 10% of them have gone 60-22 SU (+25.93 units, ROI: 31.6%) when priced in the -350 to +100 line range since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-142 vs BAL)
Trend: Framber Valdez’s teams are 9-2 (+7.40 units) when he starts on the road against NL opponents with a > 55% win pct in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+101 at CHC)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 163-124 for +3.76 units and an ROI of 1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+101 at CHC), COLORADO (-107 vs WSH), LA ANGELS (-114 vs STL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 45-33 for +1.86 units.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CINCINNATI (+101 at SEA)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 58-92 for -38.9 units and an ROI of -25.9%! Fading these teams continues to produce.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+122 at ATL), HOUSTON (-126 vs MIA), SEATTLE (-121 vs CIN), ARIZONA (-137 vs ATH)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 107-143 start for -4.11 units. After losing about 14 units over the last month, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+124 at CLE), CHICAGO CUBS (-122 vs DET), ST LOUIS (-105 at LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 202-255 for -31.16 units. This ROI of -6.8% is much less than what we’ve come to expect.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (+105 at PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+109 at TEX), DETROIT (+101 at CHC), COLORADO (-107 vs WSH)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 172-108 for +43.47 units, an ROI of +15.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-112 at TOR), SAN FRANCISCO (-114 at KC), HOUSTON (-126 vs MIA), SEATTLE (-121 vs CIN), LA ANGELS (-114 vs STL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 130-156 start for -18.39 units (ROI -6.4%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-112 at COL)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 100-109 for +4.94 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+124 at CLE), MIAMI (+104 at HOU), ST LOUIS (-104 at LAA)
MLB Post-All-Star Break Trends/Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays look at how teams fare coming out of the All-Star break in previous seasons. This study looks at the first three series for each team after the Midsummer Classic, unless otherwise noted.
In the first three series post-All-Star break, home underdogs are 166-161 for +44.28 units (ROI: 13.5%) since 2019.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-107 vs TB), KANSAS CITY (-105 vs SF), COLORADO (-107 vs WSH)
* In the first three series post-All-Star break, games with higher totals (O/U >= 9) have gone Under at a 363-277-39 (56.7%) rate since 2016.
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAD-PHI (o/u at 9), PIT-NYY (o/u at 9.5), SD-ATL (o/u at 9), SF-KC (o/u at 9.5), NYM-MIL (o/u at 9), MIA-HOU (o/u at 9), WSH-COL (o/u at 13), STL-LAA (o/u at 9), ATH-AZ (o/u at 9.5)
TEAM NOTABLES (*first three series post ASB*)
* ARIZONA – 16-9 (+5.97 units) at home since 2021 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-137 vs ATH)
* ATLANTA – 38-50 SU (-17.94 units) overall since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-147 vs SD)
* CHICAGO CUBS – 51-33-5 (60.7%) to the Under overall since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CHC (o/u at 8)
* CINCINNATI – 27-13-1 (67.5%) to the Under overall since 2022 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-SEA (o/u at 7.5)
* COLORADO – 30-11-3 (73.2%) to the Under at home since 2018 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-COL (o/u at 13)
* COLORADO – 12-9 SU (+8.51 units) at home since 2023 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (-107 vs WSH)
* KANSAS CITY – 22-13 (62.9%) to the Under at home since 2021 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-KC (o/u at 9.5)
* NY METS – 24-16 SU (+9.95 units) on the road since 2018 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (+113 at MIL)
* PITTSBURGH – 7-17 SU (-6.39 units) on the road since 2019 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+114 at NYY)
* SAN DIEGO – 25-16 SU (+10.67 units) on the road in the -145 to +190 line range since 2021 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+122 at ATL)
* SAN FRANCISCO – 10-24 SU (-15.89 units) on the road since 2022 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-114 at KC)
* TAMPA BAY – 9-19 SU (-10.80 units) on the road since 2022 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-112 at TOR)
* TEXAS – 20-6 SU (+12.92 units) at home since 2023 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-131 vs CWS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 469-451 (51%) for +15.15 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-131 vs CWS)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2160-2042 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -266.95 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-150 vs MIN), PHILADELPHIA (-126 vs LAD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+109 at TEX)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2194-2771 (44.2%) for -272.28 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+122 at ATL), ST LOUIS (-104 at LAA), CINCINNATI (+102 at SEA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 657-551 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +17.27 units, for an ROI of 1.4%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-107 vs TB)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 395-196 (66.8%) for +60.76 units and an ROI of 10.3%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-150 vs MIN), PHILADELPHIA (-126 vs LAD)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 66-44-5 (60%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 36-17 Over streak in the last 53).
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-CHC (o/u at 8)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 108-153 SU (-20.77 units, ROI: -8%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+101 at CHC), KANSAS CITY (-105 vs SF)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 197-236 SU for +37.03 units and an ROI of 8.6% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+124 at CLE)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #6:
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 50-37 SU for +21.39 units (ROI: 24.6%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ST LOUIS at LAA (-104 CURRENTLY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 43-108 skid (-40.86 units, ROI -27.1%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+104 at HOU)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 20-25 (+8.79 units, ROI: 19.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 104-188 (-64.70 units, ROI: -22.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+104 at HOU)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 313-325 run (+9.42 units, ROI: 1.5%).
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+104 at HOU)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 202-160 (+20.14 units, ROI: 5.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-142 vs BAL)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 165-169 (-74.44 units, ROI: -22.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-136 vs NYM)
Winning Streak Betting System #11:
Teams on 7+ game winning streaks playing against an intraleague opponent with a win percentage within 10% of them have gone 60-22 SU (+25.93 units, ROI: 31.6%) when priced in the -350 to +100 line range since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-142 vs BAL)
Winning Streak Betting System #12:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine games in a row or more, the lowest priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 48-26 (+23.12 units, ROI: 31.2%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-142 vs BAL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 414-404 for +10.21 units, good for 1.2% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +109 (+28 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MILWAUKEE -136 (+34 diff), ARIZONA -137 (+29), NY YANKEES -137 (+22), PHILADELPHIA -144 (+18), LA ANGELS -114 (+18), BOSTON -142 (+11)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 run edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 15-8-1 for +5.48 units and an ROI of 23.8%. On Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Unders are 26-10 for +14.2 units and an ROI of 39.4%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: PIT-NYY UNDER 9.5 (-1.0)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 97-77 for +10.8 units and an ROI of 6.2%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PIT-NYY UNDER 9.5 (-1.0), ATH-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), LAD-PHI UNDER 9 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(955) NEW YORK-NL (42-59) at (956) MILWAUKEE (63-37)
Trend: MIL is 33-18 (+4.92 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-136 vs NYM)
(957) WASHINGTON (51-50) at (958) COLORADO (40-62)
Trend: WSH is 36-14 (+17.92 units) on the run line in away games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-1.5 at COL)
(959) MINNESOTA (49-52) at (960) CLEVELAND (53-48)
Trend: Over the total is 32-15-3 (+15.50 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-CLE (o/u at 8)
Trend: Under the total is 12-3-1 (+8.55 units) in night games with starter Parker Messick in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-CLE (o/u at 8)
(961) TAMPA BAY (57-42) at (962) TORONTO (46-54)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 15-20 (-12.26 units) in his last 35 starts vs AL East foes
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-107 vs TB)
(965) CHICAGO-AL (53-46) at (966) TEXAS (50-50)
Trend: TEX is 8-15 (-7.09 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-1.5 vs CWS)
(971) DETROIT (47-53) at (972) CHICAGO-NL (56-44)
Trend: Framber Valdez’s teams are 9-2 (+7.40 units) when he starts on the ROAD against NL opponents with a > 55% win pct in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: Framber Valdez’s teams are 13-8 (+4.92 units) when he starts as a slight underdog (between -108 to +105) in the last 6+
seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+101 at CHC)
(973) MIAMI (52-49) at (974) HOUSTON (48-54)
Trend: Over the total is 26-15-3 (+9.50 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-HOU (o/u at 9)
(975) ST LOUIS (51-48) at (976) LOS ANGELES-AL (40-61)
Trend: STL is 39-18 (+13.36 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at LAA)
Trend: Over the total is 17-9-1 (+7.10 units) when LAA faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): STL-LAA (o/u at 9)
(977) ATHLETICS (43-57) at (978) ARIZONA (51-49)
Trend: Under the total is 31-18-1 (+11.20 units) in ATH road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-AZ (o/u at 9.5)
(979) CINCINNATI (45-54) at (980) SEATTLE (51-50)
Trend: Under the total is 11-5 (+5.50 units) in the competitive -140 to +140 line range with starter Chase Burns in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-SEA (o/u at 7.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #32: Minnesota at Cleveland, Mon 7/20-Thu 7/23
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 39-18 (68.4%, +21.77 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 38.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-150 vs MIN)
Series #35: Chicago White Sox at Texas, Mon 7/20-Wed 7/22
Trend: TEXAS is 15-3 (83.3%, +9.85 units) in their last 18 games versus the Chicago White Sox
– The ROI on this trend is 54.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-131 vs CWS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, TEXAS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): MINNESOTA, LA DODGERS, PITTSBURGH, NY METS, ST LOUIS, CINCINNATI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, DETROIT, MIAMI, ST LOUIS, CINCINNATI, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, July 24)
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