Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Friday, January 9 racing card at Fair Grounds, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 3.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Lost in the Sauce (3rd race)
Race 3
1. Lost in the Sauce
2. Spielman
3. Daredevil Doug
This is one of those “Festival of Droppers” bottom-level maidens. LOST IN THE SAUCE, a $180K 2yo auction buy, needed some 15 months between a tame career debut and his second start. Went from that MSW to $50K maidens, had another break, then showed little and dropped to $20K. I dunno – maybe there’s just nothing there, but I watched a couple work videos from months ago, and the horse doesn’t seem to go that badly. The quick, near-bullet Jan. 2 drill at FG doesn’t come up on video, but it does seem notably quick for a horse starting at the lowest maiden class the track offers. Blinkers off, FWIW. SPIELMAN dead-heated with Lemon Sohn in a $30K maiden last out, and while both horses returned from layoffs, Spielman’s was much longer, and he’s the one I’d take to improve a touch in the second start of his form cycle and considerable class drop. DAREDEVIL DOUG one of the few who actually started for this $12.5K tag last out. The one horse who beat him was taking a major drop in class, and DD turned in a solid showing, a repeat of which puts him in the hunt.
Here are Marcus’s handicaps on the other seven races on Friday’s Fair Grounds card.
Race 1
1. Jayjayjay
2. Roadside Banker
3. Runner Runner
The trainer J Sharp claimed JAYJAYJAY for himself out of a solid enough career debut two back, ran him once, apparently sold privately to current connections. Little concerning that Sharp didn’t have an interest in trying even one more time. Still, while beaten a dozen lengths last out, he was easily the best of the four to come out of that race and into this one. Rail draw really did him in last time, forcing rider to go up early into a duel that sapped him late. Speed here, too, but guess he can sit just off them. The price is unlikely to be right. ROADSIDE BANKER after showing zilch in two turf routes to start his career either benefited from a switch to dirt sprinter, class relief, or a combination of factors in an improved last-start performance. One of four here who ran in that Nov. 28 race, but unlike the other three he skipped the 12/19 race at this level and comes into this fresh. If you squint hard enough you can see him improving enough to win. 14-race maiden RUNNER RUNNER has taken five losses in $5K maiden-claimers and can’t be trusted at all to close the deal even if you believe the contending two-turn Delta sprint last out is repeatable at FG.
Race 2
1. Honor Azteca
2. Leah’s First
3. Cloudy Lass
Rain in forecast Thursday into Friday and while doing these final selections Wednesday, I have to try and balance turf and dirt potential in the grass races. If this race were on turf HONOR AZTECA might get slotted second behind LEAH’S FIRST, but Honor Azteca’s the one with contending form on both surfaces. Did face tougher last out and while just seventh in that grass race she was beaten only about three lengths while posting the fastest final quarter mile (23.52) among the 10 starters. Both trainer and jockey are having quite the FG meet. Leah’s First not only faced 11 MSW foes last out while making just her second career start, first around two turns, first on turf, but she did so breaking from post 11. All in all, not a bad try, and she ought to hit pretty hard with $30K maiden-claimers. Class drop for this Iowa homebred by a $5K stud does not feel negative. CLOUDY LASS in her first two-turn and turf try raced competitively, showing a nice turn of foot for the class level, but if she didn’t stay that mile (and it looked like she didn’t), how’s she going to deal with the added half-furlong in this race?
Race 4
1. Canal Street
2. Lady Star
3. Awree
Really don’t want CANAL STREET at a short price in her turf debut, but there’s a more than decent chance this race is rained onto dirt, where she’d be a likely winner. The sire hasn’t gotten many grass runners, nor is there much turf in the immediate family. The opposition here is limited though, and maybe because she’s inherently “better” she could get it done on turf as well as dirt. LADY STAR might merely have regressed second start back from a break after a competitive showing in her comeback run. I can’t find any other explanation for her mild sixth at this level last time out after she’d nearly cleared the condition in November. Has other turf routes, even at FG, validating the 11/28 performance. AWREE has zero speed and needs racing luck but looked in her last two starts like a better horse than she’d been a year ago at FG.
Race 5
1. Sippin On Gin
2. Cosmic Train
3. Mangum
SIPPIN ON GIN is listed at 5-2 but looks like a shorter priced favorite than that dropping from stakes into an N4L LA-bred allowance. Went 3-3 last FG meet – including Crescent City Derby win — after stretching out to routes, and ran in November like a rusty horse who “needed” his comeback start. Obviously overmatched by G2 winner Touchuponastar on Champions Day but still showed there he’d progressed from spring to fall. Worked back twice since and can come forward again. Was hard to split the two Delhomme horses, COSMIC TRAIN and MANGUM. Cosmic Train a little concerningly flat Nov. 22 in the Jake Morreale and starts for the first claiming tag of his long career, but with this 7yo that looks more realistic than entirely negative, and there’s a chance a couple hook up on a strong pace, which is what he needs. Mangum part of a slow pace in the Champs Day Turf, but that race still collapsed to the closers. As with his stablemate, he’s entered under the claiming option in order to run him where he belongs.
Race 6
1. Bless the Broken
2. Being Myself
3. Pretty Sassy
BLESS THE BROKEN, away since June, wasn’t especially fast in the spring despite her Kentucky Oaks third, and lacks the positional pace to make her own race. Sounds like a recipe for a vulnerable favorite, but I still think she comes back too strong for this limited bunch of N2X allowance foes. Gotten in plenty of miles for the comeback run and did well over this track a year ago. BEING MYSELF for whatever reason (shipping? no Lasix?) wasn’t herself last out in the Mother Goose. Lightly raced and won well enough two back in a CD N1X allowance that one can imagine her taking down the favorite. PRETTY SASSY has less upside than Being Myself but did the best work of her career in two Fair Grounds dirt routes last season.
Race 7
1. Shining Star
2. Cairo Dream
3. Mom’s Palace
Suppose at the expected low price we are not supposed to trust the one race that makes SHINING STAR the favorite in this N2X allowance, but I was impressed enough with the way she looked to land on her regardless. Chilean-bred did nothing in her N American debut last May – but did a lot in her first turf try. Impressive move through a narrow rail gap to totally take control of that IND N1X turf sprint allowance. Opened a huge lead before jockey started asking and continued drawing clear even while failing to change leads. Suppose they could have looked at the stakes race on Saturday but this obviously is more of a stepping-stone start. CAIRO DREAM came back last month from a long layoff looking like a horse who had improved by leaps and bounds during her down time. I like her to run back to that competitive showing at this class level if not improve upon it. MOM’S PALACE didn’t run to her turf form on Turfway synthetic last out and might struggle to sustain her pace through the long FG homestretch.
Race 8
1. People Force
2. Hey Boss
3. Ben Dreaming
Impossible race! PEOPLE FORCE’s pattern: turf, turf, sloppy track, race he needed. There is form back there that puts him in the hunt at a price, and I’d expect to see pace to set things up for a closer. Also potentially closing is steep, steep class dropper HEY BOSS. Hard to know how to handle horses like this, but the barn does win regularly with the type. BEN DREAMING exits a long string of turf races probably at least in part because he needs a lower claiming tag than $10,000, which is the bottom in FG grass races. His dirt form is … acceptable.
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