Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Saturday, February 14 racing card at Fair Grounds, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 8.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Expensive Queen (Eighth race)
Eighth Race
1. Expensive Queen
2. Medoro
3. Sweet Treasure
EXPENSIVE QUEEN was just a horse, rising only to Class 4 handicap ranks, during the overseas portion of her career. She’s a different horse in America. Must’ve gotten her last furlong at KEE in April, first start in US, in about 11.30, and that after a fast quarter mile before it. Very impressive run—impressive enough to make one think she’s a strong chance in a listed FG stake. I’m drawing a line through the Gamely—she never traveled in that race, worked a couple times after it, then got a long break—foot issues, the trainer said. Popped again in the off-turf Tapeta comeback, beating a solid rival, favored Vixen, and she’s meant to improve here second time back from the layoff. Margin of victory over longshot pacesetter Cupids Crush wasn’t all that, but MEDORO always seemed to have her measured—a very solid showing in her first start outside California. Doubt she runs any better than that here—might not have to. Thought SWEET TREASURE had a decent shot last month in the Krantz, but that pretty much disappeared with a bad stumble at the start. Never really looked comfortable, still gaining a bit at the end.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other 11 races on Saturday’s Fair Grounds card.
First Race
1. Rani
2. Yaudacity
3. Seeking Attention
You can’t understand RANI’s trip in her lone start without watching the head-on replay. Not long after the start, she decided, with no input from the jockey, to turn left and head down toward the fence from about the four path. You can see that the jockey is distressed by this turn of events. He leans very, very hard to the right trying to gain control of his mount. That doesn’t really work, the pair going into the turn with the rider more hanging on and hoping than riding a race. They negotiate, fragilely, the first part of the bend, whereupon the jockey decides enough is enough and comes off the rail, Rani making a sharp move to reach the pacesetter, sustaining it to take a lead to mid-stretch before—understandably!—flattening late. She gets a jockey change here to one of the strongest riders in the game. They could prove a good fit, and suspect the filly, who skipped the last race in this division, will prove more manageable in her second start. Talented, fair-priced. YAUDACITY broke through the gate pre-start last time while facing stakes company as a maiden. We can forgive her that showing. Her debut was pretty remarkable. As good as a win, really, considering the very strong sustained run she turned in. But sometimes that KEE turf form does not carry to other venues. And if she’s anything close to 8-1, I’ll eat my hat. Things went all wrong from the start for SEEKING ATTENTION in her debut. She never got untracked, but I suspect there’s talent here.
Second Race
1. Mojacar
2. Trouble Calling
3. Trombone
While the winner, the very promising Knock It Off, actually turned in the race’s fastest final furlong, MOJACAR debuting in a 1/17 dirt sprint MSW was second-fastest through the final furlong, that after already closing a lot of ground after a poor start. While this might in the end be a route horse, I suspect he’s quicker into the race this time, has less to do, and still finishes with verve. TROUBLE CALLING checked in a whopping eight lengths in front of Mojacar in their common last start, but had three races behind him going into that, and ran so much faster than in his previous outing that one wonders if he’ll regress. Cozy outside draws his last two and now breaks from the fence. TROMBONE fetched big money at a 2yo in training sale. May be a runner? Fast works often actually not a positive sign from this barn.
Third Race
1. Bear River
2. Usually Wrong
3. Autodrive
Perhaps beating my head against the wall, going back to BEAR RIVER here after he got thumped last out by USUALLY WRONG, but Usually Wrong going down to odds-on favoritism now, while Bear River in the past—including on the FG lawn—has run significantly better than he did last time. Was 6-1 in the Kenner and could go even a couple ticks higher here – good value. Usually Wrong deserved to get DQ’d two back, though he was much the best in that race. Crossed wire first in five of six turf starts and might actually be a budding star in the turf sprint division? Or, on the other hand, he hit a peak in his last two and now, viewed as a certain winner, he takes a step back? AUTODRIVE is 3-3 to start his career, an impressive feat as he has handled real steps up in competition. All three races on dirt, but guess what? He’s bred top and bottom to be a grass horse.
Fourth Race
1. Goodall
2. Island Flower
3. Thesewallshaveears
Could easily have made GOODALL the day’s best bet, though really doubt we see anything close to the 5-2 morning line. Popped the gate breaking from post 12, crossed over and set a strong pace, and while no match late, the one horse who beat her looks quite talented. Love that very slow half-mile breeze into this, classic work for a very fast horse from this barn. There’s no point honing her speed. The idea is to teach her to use it better. We’ll see that today. Got a look at a couple videos of ISLAND FLOWER working. She looks like a runner, and looks very fast—really wants to get it on. All will hinge on the break from post 1. If she gets away cleanly, good things could happen. If there’s any misstep, she’s in trouble. THESEWALLSHAVEEARS, who probably has less speed, was in the same position last out as Island Flower, debuting in a sprint from post 1. Useful learning experience. Fairly sure she’s going to improve considerably, perhaps not quite enough to win first prize.
Fifth Race
1. Sonare
2. Wooten Warrior
3. Ocala Gala
SONARE could not come close to keeping up with a fast sprint pace last out when making his career debut and won’t have to, stretching out to a route in his second start. It’s the last 40% of his race that’s the key. He started picking up steam and was really rolling by the furlong grounds, hitting the line full of run, galloping out with aplomb. Bred to run long and absolutely should. Also like WOOTEN WARRIOR stretching out to two turns, and he has two sprints as foundation for this. He also has a bad draw, post 12, and will need plenty of luck overcoming it. OCALA GALA did set a fairly strong pace last time, but he was the 1-2 favorite and probably should have sealed the deal that day? Horse who ran him down, his stablemate, raced competitively, coming back as the heavy favorite in a first-level allowance but didn’t win. Price will be too low again here.
Sixth Race
1. Attache
2. Tough Catch
3. Furio
ATTACHE was a very well-intended horse last out, perhaps a winner with a better post position. Any improvement he shows second time back from the break will come here for new connections who claimed him for $50K on Jan. 15. I like the claim. The gelding, at times, has been consistently fast enough to knock out this second allowance condition. Worked back twice, including a bullet half-mile (if only we could see the work on video, not just look at the time!) and ran into an undefeated winner last time who might be pretty damned good. Don’t see anything of that quality in this race—unless it’s TOUGH CATCH. Tough Catch did run well—his best yet—when last seen at Mahoning Valley on Nov. 24, but not sure the $300K Steel Valley Sprint was quite the race it’s been at times. Same question, but even more so with his Sugar Bowl win at FG. Has logged fast work for 4yo debut and still has upside. FURIO off since June but fired fresh clearing the FG maiden ranks in January 2025. Ignore his route races. He wants to sprint, and since he never worked back after the Maxfield in June, fair to guess something went amiss in that race.
Seventh Race
1. Double Entendre
2. Kelz
3. McBridge
DOUBLE ENTENDRE is bred like a route horse, looks like a route horse, ran like a route horse last month, splitting the field in a sprint debut and now actually gets to route. Strong feeling this has been the target for a couple months, and that he won’t get very close to that 8-1 morning line. Blinkers on for the third time, starting KELZ last out, and the horse improved massively. Not just a good second to a promising winner, but a good second with a spot of trouble and a decent chance to continue improving. That sudden race-to-race improvement Kelz showed last time? Not going to be surprised if his K McPeek-trained stable-mate, MCBRIDGE, does something similar. Strong chance this is meant to be a route horse, and he not only debuted in a sprint, but in an especially fast-paced and generally fast sprint.
Ninth Race
1. Hit Show
2. Time to Win
3. Accelerize
HIT SHOW probably will be an odds-on favorite here. I’m surprised how willing I am to accept a short price on this horse. While he won the Dubai World Cup last year, Hit Show has never truly been a top-class performer, but this renewal of the Mineshaft is far removed from being a top-class race. No one will beat the horse if he comes back to his Clark run last fall, and the work pattern for his ’26 debut, a prep for a return to Dubai, has no holes. Just looks better than these, and the two I’d consider as alternatives, TIME TO WIN and ACCELERIZE, don’t hold all that much appeal. Time to Win, after requiring four tries to win a maiden race, comes to this after back-to-back victories, and while the maiden got a much higher speed figure, his last-start allowance score was the better performance. He’d need to do better than that to take down Hit Show, and while a first try at a middle distance around two turns could work well, I’m not sure this horse has quite the upside I’d like to see. Credit to Cadet Corps for finishing a close third last month in the Louisiana, but Cadet Corps looks like a fully exposed horse, and the fact he ran so close to Accelerize makes one wonder just how strong was that Mineshaft. I suppose Accelerize might just be a disinterested work horse, but you wouldn’t take much encouragement from two workout videos subsequent to his last race.
Tenth Race
1. Montador
2. Cameo Performance
3. Kupuna
MONTADOR first caught my eye—and many others’, I’m sure—stretching out from a long-layoff sprint comeback to win powerfully at Kentucky Downs. But let’s go back to the sprint comeback. This is a true route horse, 1-1 at this 1 1/8 mile trip with a strong gallop he probably can sustain for 10 furlongs, and he still was able to get up in a 5 1/2-furlong dash? The only blip in his development, the fifth in the Commonwealth at Churchill in November, was followed by the easiest of wins in the Woodchopper. Much tougher foes this time than last, but Montador can get a good trip, and I think he’s ready for the step up. CAMEO PERFORMANCE definitely teases, throwing hints and not following through on them. I should probably tread carefully with his Bradley run last month, but I thought CP had to wait long enough for room on the far turn that it compromised his chance of winning. Had a second pause in mid-stretch and hit the line full of run, galloping out in front. I look back at his Muniz Memorial, like this a 9f FG turf race, and wonder if he might not finally break through. Cannot fault KUPUNA’s form since a $100K claim in September, but, to me, he peaked last month winning the Bradley, and I wonder if he can come right back to that while trying to stretch out to 1 1/8 miles. His lone dirt start beyond 1 1/16 miles, the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby, yielded a distant seventh, though other factors surely contributed to that dud. Against the two morning-line favorites, Brilliant Berti and Lagynos, neither of whom suits a race this long.
Eleventh Race
1. Majestical
2. Luv Your Neighbor
3. Just Singing
Agrippina will be scratched after coughing, which removes one of several clearly talented fillies with upside from consideration here. I am probably going to feel stupid leaving Bella Ballerina out of the top three, but hear me out: It’s not that I think she’s going to finish fourth or worse, but that I wanted to include these three other fillies as worthy plays against a favorite likely to go off considerably lower than her 2-1 morning line. The competition in her maiden win was soft, and we’re still not sure how strong a race the Golden Rod was. No doubt, BB could emerge from this as an Oaks favorite, and that’s fine. Confident that MAJESTICAL is better than her speed figures. She showed a great attitude and aptitude in her debut, sitting chilly behind a wall of horses turning for home before a hole opened and she shot through it. She got out too late to win, but ran a winning race with an excellent gallop out, and backed up those first-start impressions with a dominant two-turn FG maiden score. Gotten a week more rest than those who ran in the Silverbulletday and is set, from a good tracking spot, to hit a new level. LUV YOUR NEIGHBOR likely wins the Silverbulletday if she’s more forwardly ridden into a glacial pace. The new jockey will make sure to deploy whatever pace she possesses. Blinkers on, and from the look of her Feb. 7 work, they might make a meaningful difference. The horse drawn just inside her in the Golden Rod dumped the jockey at the break, and JUST SINGING had to jink right a bit to stay clear of the human hitting the ground—whatever gate speed she has, and it’s not all that much, was out the window. Yes, the Golden Rod pace came up hot, which helped JS, but I still really liked her stretch run. Is she ready to win first time back from a winter break, and in a race that could unfold at a modest pace? Maybe not quite? Hard ignoring Powered by Family, too, given her impressive sustained run in the route maiden score. If she breaks any better than in her first two races, however, it’ll be a surprise.
Twelfth Race
1. Courting
2. Paladin
3. Golden Tempo
COURTING must improve considerably to have any chance at favored PALADIN, who beat him seven lengths when they both last raced, in the Dec. 6 Remsen, and I think he has that kind of improvement in him. The raw material is there – this is a colt made like a Classic horse. And from the appearance of workout video, the addition of blinkers in the middle of February has changed the way Courting goes about his business. Courting gets into his works on the bridle and ready to roll, something that was not the case last even in January. His body has honed, too, like a colt who’s had a very, very good winter. Carson Street goes to the lead, Chip Honcho presses him, Paladin sitting third. No one else has any pace, unless newly blinkered Courting gets into the race like he’s gotten into his works. If he does, he’ll get a good trip and have a decent chance at a minor upset. Paladin might wind up a touch overbet but deserves strong favoritism. Renegade’s Sam Davis Stakes win last weekend flattered the Remsen form, and Paladin, too, appears to have wintered very well. No easy task going from a debut sprint to win a two-turn graded-stakes second time out, which is what GOLDEN TEMPO has done. I think he’s a better horse than his speed figures, but I’m not sure he’ll be any faster out of the gate than in his first two starts, and this time he’s tasked with running down stronger competition than he beat in the Lecomte. I’d guess connections would take a closing third and feel good about going into the spring. CHIP HONCHO, blinkers off with a new jockey, ran well in the Lecomte considering his lousy trip. Not totally giving up on him.
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
