Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Saturday, January 17 racing card at Fair Grounds, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Love and Trust (5th race)
Fifth Race
1. Love and Trust
2. Goodall
3. Feeling Groovy
LOVE AND TRUST missed a few works last fall but has gotten back onto a steady pattern, and not only has she worked fast, she has worked well – seems like she might be a real runner, in fact. Can’t break too slow from this wide draw – otherwise get stuck too far back or too wide on the turn. Drawn even wider – and requiring a scratch to get in – is the $525K Yaupon first-timer GOODALL, who does not have any holes in a long and strong work pattern and could turn out to be a gorilla. FEELING GROOVY managed second of 11 debuting at KEE, a solid if not especially eye-catching performance. She might be running into at least a couple fast ones here, too.
Here are Marcus’s thoughts on the other 12 races on Saturday’s Fair Grounds card.
First Race
1. Protonic Power
2. Next Level
3. Sabi
Sure, yeah, Hawthorne not a great colony of horses, and PROTONIC POWER had plenty of pace at which to run in his two turf wins there this fall, but he beat Calibrate by four lengths, and Calibrate is 7-2 in this turf route starter allowance. He used to do dirt before his year-plus layoff, but the dirt starts since he returned from that break suggest a horse who now needs grass, and I’m looking at those lesser races in that light. Don’t despite his 1-1 record on the grass much care for NEXT LEVEL on turf, and there’s not rain in the forecast, but were this race somehow to wind up on the main track (I fear Protonic Power would stay in) he’d easily be the most likely winner. SABI in his comeback run two starts ago looked like a very rusty horse and last out he took a considerable step forward. Faced tougher than these both starts and before those two races had won two of three on the FG lawn.
Second Race
1. Love Getaway
2. Mighty Hankerin
3. Miss Super Mo
There was an LA-bred dirt MSW on Dec. 20, and thus not entirely sure why connections debuted LOVE GETAWAY on turf the next day – unless (Occam’s Razor) they thought she was a grass horse. There’s little in the pedigree (sires have performed much better on dirt) to suggest that, and S David has trained several of this horse’s siblings. She pretty much lost all chance at the start, breaking from post 1 and mashed in several lengths toward the rail when horses outside her came in. Didn’t ever appear to be loving the lawn but still plugged along and was gaining on Paradise Ridge at the wire. No video, but there are fast dirt works, and the second-start surface switch could yield something much better. Suspect first-timer MIGHTY HANKERIN will go off favored below the 3-1 morning line odds, and obviously I have her rated highly here. Two CD work videos: I liked her better in the 9/18 move than the 10/11 gate drill, though the horse who outworked her there did finish an okay 4th in a $150K KEE maiden-claimer. Gap in works when she moved from CD to FG – not a huge concern. Trainer N Casse went 1-15 during ’25 with firsters. Over the last five years at FG he’s 0-22 at FG, 0-10 with firsters who went off at less than 10-1. MISS SUPER MO had a poor start two back while facing La-breds for the first time and last out got stuck in very tight quarters along the fence the entire stretch run. She’s capable.
Third Race
1. Different Gravy
2. Jackson Hole
3. Arabia Wild
First off, Thunder Buck’s supposed to run in the Lecomte, so he’s getting left out of this analysis. He’d win if he were in. DIFFERENT GRAVY at 8-1 compared to the much lower prices on JACKSON HOLE and ARABIA WILD doesn’t make much sense. Granted, Different Gravy shook loose on a clear lead going sprint (a dud) to route for his second start, and he was facing restricted maidens, but the horse actually accelerated after turning for home, unusual for a 2yo dirt route maiden, and was geared down the final half-furlong. Liked his race better than JACKSON HOLE’s debut, a one-turn mile that based on the horses who have run back looks to have been a soft spot. He came under heavy pressure around the turn and was hard ridden to a pedestrian victory, though of course he could be better as a real route horse. One post-race work video, where he appeared to be going heads up with Remsen runner-up Renegade before Renegade overpowered him past the wire and on the gallop out. ARABIA WILD took two IND defeats to start his career and beat a very, very modest group of FG maidens.
Fourth Race
1. Classic Time
2. Dapper Moon
3. Clear as a Bele
CLASSIC TIME hasn’t raced since March but sure didn’t “need” his first start back from a half-year layoff when he sprinted in an La-bred allowance — this kind of race — in February. Ran fine going two turns in the Crescent City Derby but could top out as a closing sprinter. Expect him to come back firing, and I think he can run these horses down at — presumably – a reasonable price. DAPPER MOON figures favored, and deservedly so. Feels like he already should have cleared this LA-bred condition but since easily winning his last LA-bred sprint allowance DM raced only in open company and in routes. Got back to LA-bred sprinting this meet, broke through the gate in his stakes comeback, narrowly missed last out in a race at this class level but populated by two horses faster than these. Can’t quite trust him at the expected price. CLEAR AS A BELE thrived over the summer after being claimed by these connections and has past good form at FG, but I doubt he returns to action quite the same horse as when he went out.
Sixth Race
1. Knock It Off
2. Tapit’s Gunner
3. Mojacar
Again, as I have been railing about for weeks, the lack of Fair Grounds workout video, which he had the last couple years, is killing me. Turns this back into a guessing game for those not privy to morning training. Guess it’s obvious on paper that KNOCK IT OFF has promise. By the incredible debut sire Vekoma, long local work pattern for a Hall of Fame trainer who does not for the most part – despite some quick recent drills here – breeze his horses fast. TAPIT’S GUNNER needs a scratch to draw in from AE list and showed about nothing in his debut, but this barn’s young horses can improve dramatically from race to race early in their career, and this one is blinkers on with a fast work since his run. Am pretty sure MOJACAR has ability but also would guess the horse will require two turns to hit his best mark.
Seventh Race
1. Bear River
2. Can’t Deny It
3. Wendelssohn
Not sure how one gets to 8-1 on BEAR RIVER. He’s 2-2 on the FG lawn, won two important turf sprint stakes last summer while racing against much stronger competition than this, didn’t handle dirt in his last race, and two back ran in the — Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Seems like he could be favored. He only really found himself about a year ago and can at least maintain the level he hit last year if not exceed it. There’s other speed, sure, but he doesn’t require the lead to run well. CAN’T DENY IT might require the lead, but does have a better draw farther outside than Bear River. He also lacks anything like BR’s credentials (despite also being 8-1 on the line) but is unbeaten in three turf sprints, the first over this course, the most recent in a stakes-class KEE allowance. Feel certain the barn has aimed at this spot for quite some time. I doubt WENDELSSOHN can carry his strong Thanksgiving Classic dirt form to the turf course – but not impossible.
Eighth Race
1. Reagan’s Honor
2. Ocelli
3. Liberty Valance
REAGAN’S HONOR didn’t fall out the back door debuting last month in a sprint, but he also couldn’t quite keep up with pace and went evenly throughout – you know, like a horse that needs two turns. Gets that here, has worked twice between starts – should improve enough to contend. OCELLI would get the nod on top had he not drawn so poorly in post 12, and if he weren’t going to take a lot of betting. The blinkers could really help – he lost focus in the upper stretch last time before coming again late for a good second behind Lecomte runner Thunder Buck. Nothing wrong with any of LIBERTY VALANCE’s first three starts – beyond the fact he’s still a maiden. Was drawn wide last time, and beaten two back by Lecomte runner Mesquite, who did seem to ease up after making the lead.
Ninth Race
1. Nanda Dea
2. Sweet Treasure
3. Epic Style
NANDA DEA was a star in Argentina and looked like she could be a star in the making in America, too: Her two wins in her first two N American starts both were much better than the bare margin of victory. She got hurt after winning over this course and landed in a very, very salty spot coming back from a long break. Showed nothing there, but I’ll guess she still has enough in the tank to beat this group, and something like the published price would be just fine. SWEET TREASURE has done little wrong and in fact a lot right throughout her career. Sharp winner two back at CD and did not quite get the right trip last out in the Pebbles, where she got into a tricky spot in the upper stretch and couldn’t quite recover. Gotta use her here. EPIC STYLE is way up in class off an N1X win, but that win came over the FG lawn, was her first try around two turns, and showcased – as she showed sprinting in New York — a very nice turn of foot. As you can see I am trying to beat the likely favorite MEDORO, who hits the road for the first time in her career. Wonder if she’s quite as good as she once was.
Tenth Race
1. Luv Your Neighbor
2. Atropa
3. Pashmina
Wasn’t enthused about LUV YOUR NEIGHBOR going into the Untapable and not especially enthused about the Untapable generally. But this filly did show she not only can stay two turns but that she’s better routing. Remarkably, she almost won with the jockey losing an iron at the 3/16 marker and never getting it back. Throw out her Woodbine race – she hated the synthetic. ATROPA is very much the horse to beat, the most likely winner, romping in her two-turn debut and a fine second last out in the Golden Rod, a stronger race than this. I suspect she’s closer to 1-1 than 2-1 here and can’t quite have her at the odds I expected. Maybe PASHMINA was exposed in the Untapable, and she was squeezed back and checked, she already was fading – but I think there might be a little more to the filly.
Eleventh Race
1. Reagan’s Wit
2. Lagynos
3. Theismann
Have to demand a price on REAGAN’S WIT, who hasn’t run since he chipped an ankle in his last race back in July. LAGYNOS figures favored, but beyond him I’m not sure who gets bet, and with Prat riding for DeVaux and a horse of obvious talent, I suppose he could take too much money. The horse was quirky at 3 but also very, very talented – talented enough that you could project him winning a race like this as a more mature and faster 4yo. Ran lights out in lone FG grass start. Can’t see how LAGYNOS isn’t a defined favorite here, and for sure he’s the most likely winner. Not a star but has held his own with considerably stronger competition than this and should come back strong enough from a freshening. THEISMANN was supposed to race in the Diliberto last month but missed the race for benign reasons. He could wind up controlling the pace and was good enough to reel off three straight on the tough KY circuit.
Twelfth Race
1. Moonlight
2. Sir Greylind
3. Just a Touch
MOONLIGHT might be a Churchill specialist and might need one turn for his very best – but I’m guessing neither of those things holds him back. He could get the run of the race, handled this surface well last season, has improved steadily and is set for a career-best. If as I guess both Acclerize and Willy D’s come out running, the pace here could turn quite strong, and while I don’t like SIR GREYLIND to run any better than he did last time, he could repeat that performance and get into the mix. JUST A TOUCH figures odds-on rather than 8-5 and at the top of his game wins this. However, he ended his last form cycle in August with a whimper and could face a thorny trip if the speed inside him decides to go.
Thirteenth Race
1. Golden Tempo
2. Stop the Car
3. White Tiger
GOLDEN TEMPO really caught the eye winning his debut last month in an FG sprint. He went last to first not because the race fell apart but because he finished very fast. Was always meant to be a route horse, and watching his work videos from a few months ago compared to recent drills – he’s gained so much muscle and lost his softness. Main concern is he takes too much betting and goes off negative value. STOP THE CAR kept up better than I expected in a one-turn CD N1X mile last time – not quite fair to say he won that easily only because a fast pace set things up for him. Faced squishy competition at KEE but won well at a distance short of his best. He’s supposed to be better at two turns, has worked fast prepping for this, and figures a square price. WHITE TIGER hasn’t done anything especially impressive (other than gallop out after his races and works like a horse who can run all day), but I think he was more superior last time than the bare margin of victory, and that he’s sitting on his best race in his first start at 3.ost 2. Win or lose, ‘DUELLO will keep the pace honest.with that trip against that race flow; will look to steal it and she could well be successful if she’s allowed to set her own pace on an unpressured lead.
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