Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Thursday, March 19 racing card at Fair Grounds, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 9.
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BEST BET: Orizzonte (9th race)
Ninth Race
1. Orizzonte
2. Energize
3. Money Game
ORIZZONTE, like his mother, might be a bi-surface kind of horse, but until he runs back for a second time on grass, I’m guessing he’s better on dirt. Far from certain, though, given his mighty stretch surge Jan. 24 when beaten a neck making his turf debut in his first start since May. Took him forever to wind up and come with his run, but he was rolling at the furlong grounds in a one-mile race surely short of his best trip. Ample recovery time since that strong comeback and likely to break through here. That said, ENERGIZE did run two races last fall, especially the CD score, that put him in the win mix. No Lasix in his last two starts, and two lively works since returning to FG. Has speed, but it’s of the rateable variety. MONEY GAME 2-2 to start career – but those two races came last March and May. The B Cox barn, of course, frequently has long layoff horses primed and ready for routes first time off the bench. But this horse wasn’t especially “fast” last year, while being especially slow out of the gate.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other ten races on Thursday’s Fair Grounds card.
First Race
1. Whiskey Bee Gone
2. Clearly Colossal
3. Lewis Memorial
WHISKEY BEE GONE has done little running in his two career starts, and the $30K claim price paid in his debut looks like it’s not working out – which is why connections run the horse in an LA-bred $10K maiden-claimer before the barn heads north for the spring and summer. Lively drill and the trainer, a former jockey, long has thrown a bone here and there to young riders who don’t get many live mounts. CLEARLY COLOSSAL is the race’s other steep dropper, he even more so than WBG, and like Whiskey, he shows a fairly fast half-mile drill for this start. Also, like Whiskey, we have no real idea if he can run a competitive race. Just that class relief might help. LEWIS MEMORIAL has lost maiden-claimers for $5K and $7.5K, but going one mile or thereabouts at the right class level — this one — he’s been pretty consistently competitive. Can’t rule out of win contention since we’re “projecting” with the top two.
Second Race
1. Django
2. You Belong Here
3. C Mac Da Boss
Third race of his form cycle and down to his lowest class level, solid two-race foundation behind him now, improvement from Race 1 to Race 2 after his return to action – seems like DJANGO is set up to break through with his third win. Lacking pace, he can’t make his own race, and the move will have to start on the turn at this short-stretch mile, but still think he turns the tables on YOU BELONG HERE and gets home in time. YOU BELONG HERE might not have regressed all that much last out following his Jan. 10 victory, fresh off a nine-week break – he just ran into a very sharp front-running 3yo winner who got eight pounds from the elders. No such horse in this race, though YBH is a little light on established competitive form, especially vis-à-vis Django. C MAC DA BOSS can slip loose on the lead and has run his best with that sort of trip, but just wonder if he has quite the class/speed to fully press that potential pace advantage.
Third Race
1. Miss Maximus
2. Beamer
3. Anajuliaforever
MISS MAXIMUS was claimed by these connections for $15K thirteen months and 11 races ago, and only now drops below that price. She does so because her form is solid – ready to win — she hasn’t won since May, and the FG meet is about to end, leaving this barn racing for considerably lower spring and summer LA purses. Is well meant, capable, and was taken out of preferred trip last time with a poor start. What a fine claim BEAMER has been for these connections – doesn’t at all look like an obvious horse to claim, but after being taken for $5K and freshened up, she immediately knocked out that first La-bred allowance condition. Has held form through three more starts, comes into this fresh, and still racing under starter-allowance conditions. ANAJULIAFOREVER first off the claim bumped up her Beyer Speed Figure 19 points while running a career best by 16 points. Interesting. The 5.5f suits and can’t at all rule out a wire job from this rail draw.
Fourth Race
1. Run of the House
2. Sight
3. Fake Smart
RUN OF THE HOUSE hasn’t raced in just over one year, though, somewhat interestingly, he did post timed workouts in April, May, June, and July. Also worked twice in New York mid- and late December before being shipped to FG and getting onto a regular breeze pattern. Put it all together and the horse feels well meant for $15K, half his lowest claim price, returning from the extended break. He’s “fast enough,” looks like the main speed of the race, and notched his only win while running fresh. SIGHT I suppose could be favored dropping from a debut MSW score and three allowance tries. Work pattern has thinned out and seems from here like connections are trying to lose the horse as much as win the race – which is not to say he won’t do, but that the price probably will be wrong. Similar dynamic with FAKE SMART, whose only previous claiming price was 10X this amount. No idea if he can show his best in a dirt sprint.
Fifth Race
1. Calicoco
2. Passing Judgment
3. Southscape
CALICOCO got into two speed duels to start his Fair Grounds season, ran into two sharp horses who beat him in his third out, went too early into a solid pace two back when caught again, and, rating better than he had earlier, still got too much of a good pace last time before being run down by Big Chopper on the inside and PASSING JUDGMENT on the outside. This time – finally – he should get an easier trip, controlling the pace, and while Passing Judgement got him last time, it’s Calicoco with the stronger long-term form. It should be close, however. PJ “needed” his comeback run two back, and the other two times he and Cali have met the margin between them has been a nose and a neck. SOUTHSCAPE eked out the N1X victory last time and doesn’t look like the kind of improving horse who can win right back one rung up the class ladder.
Sixth Race
1. Maximum Promise
2. Vamos Carlitos
3. Rothko
MAXIMUM PROMISE went 0-8 last year at age 3 and ended his campaign with an odds-on defeat racing at this class level over Turfway Tapeta. That said, his Beyer Speed Figures, at least, bumped up to a new range with the addition of Lasix and the subtraction of blinkers, and even the sixth in his most recent dirt start might well suffice here. Good-looking work pattern since coming to FG from OP. Needs some pace help. And speaking of pace, VAMOS CARLITOS went right into chase mode behind the very strong pace set by the very good 3yo Reagan’s Honor – we see it often, horses that press a fast-paced winner throw in the towel and fade late. He’s capable of something better, though the ceiling’s not especially high. ROTHKO can win but probably won’t be worth the bet. Knocked out the maiden win last time at 3-10 while facing just five foes, and the visual was even more meh than the running line.
Seventh Race
1. Dawn After Dawn
2. The Great Maybe
3. Myiyla
DAWN AFTER DAWN won well enough at IND last summer but generally has finished off all those route races like a horse who might benefit from a cut back in distance. She gets that here while holding firm for the $30K claim price this owner paid two starts ago. Six-week break since her last out, three works, and likely to improve. Jockey B Hernandez rides DAD after piloting THE GREAT MAYBE last time, which means … I don’t know what. On paper, The Great Maybe should be the shorter price between the pair, but maybe the betting public sees things like I do – that her best races are fading below the horizon in the rear-view mirror. MYIYLA seems to finish better on turf than dirt, but he even KEE main-track try from last fall puts her in shouting distance of win contention. Second start after layoff, first time for a tag, and, as usual, don’t let the lack of works misguide you, as it’s relatively common with this barn.
Eighth Race
1. R T’s Gem
2. Blessed Assurance
3. Diva Beach
None of R T’S GEM’s three grass races suggest that she’s actually a grass horse – in fact, they make her look like a dirt horse who can’t show her best on turf. But, two things. 1) None of those three grass races came for her present trainer, who has won at a very high percentage before and after running afoul of HISA rules and winding up in the non-HISA state of Louisiana. He does very well with grass runners, too, despite the more chaotic nature of grass racing. And 2) There is perhaps one true “turf” horse in the race, which could turn into a war of attrition. Here’s another one who’s not a turf horse – BLESSED ASSURANCE. As with R T, a look back at her specific turf starts tells the same tale as the 2-0-0-0 record: They weren’t very good. That despite the mare’s dam being by the turf horse and turf influence Theatrical. Were the race on dirt, she’d fit very well on current form. DIVA BEACH is the “turf horse” in the race and maybe that alone will get it done. I might be treating her too lightly since her form has steadily improved since last summer, but still don’t quite trust at the expected price.
Tenth Race
1. Englishman
2. Donegal Light
3. Silver Talisman
ENGLISHMAN listed at 4-5 on the morning line, and even that isn’t low enough. It’s a watch-not-bet sort of race as far as I can see, since I have no interest in trying to beat this horse. Have gotten a look at some FG work video, and yeah – he looks like all that. Perhaps tops out as a one-turn miler, but had no trouble getting 7f in his wickedly fast lone start and clearly has more than enough speed for 6f. Could not ask for a better draw given the circumstances. DONEGAL LIGHT beat a short field at Delta in his debut win, but the runner-up had more than six lengths on the third-place finisher and DL was pretty impressive. Same owner but new barn as he graduates to the bigger time, and has gotten a feel for the FG surface with two local moves. A hint of exacta value perhaps, at least compared to SILVER TALISMAN. Silver Talisman ran into a sharp (stakes-bound) winner last time – and might meet the same fate here.
Eleventh Race
1. You Good
2. Syvestar
3. Doolgaroux
YOU GOOD’s last win came the last time he was able to make the front and dictate pace, and that seems like a plausible trip here, too. Used to be you could get some value on a horse like this coming off a poor start – but that’s rarely the case in this era if said horse is “live.” Still, he was 6-1 in a better showing two back and might not take too much action. SYVESTAR second, third, and fourth in his three tries down at this $5K “B” claiming class. He’s not getting any faster, is a closer, and the pace here figures slower than in his last two races. DOOLGAROUX wheels back on short rest, is out of his conditions (N3L in an N4L claimer) but can make at least a minor dent down for the claiming price where he belongs.
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