Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Scott Ehlers handicaps the Monday, July 13 racing card at Gulfstream Park, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Spicy Princess (4th race)
Fourth Race
1. Spicy Princess
2. Olivia Valentina
3. Calathea
SPICY PRINCESS was well thought of as a maiden even if it took her a while to break through. She tried winners and stakes foes both for the first time two back and ran a nice second while getting a Beyer top. Connections knew they had something so they tried graded foes before the layoff but something went awry. After this freshening, she should pick up where she left off. OLIVIA VALENTINA likes this sod well enough and has now run better in two of her last three starts. She can put good races together and now returns to the green all for a 21% turf barn. CALATHEA is by a 7% debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced. Two sibs failed to win on the green but one did hit the board. This mare is cross entered in a 100K turf stakes so this is the better spot. If able to secure an early advantage, she might prove troublesome to run down.
Here are Scott’s thoughts on the other eight races on Monday’s Gulfstream Park card.
First Race
1. Gallega
2. Come On Poppi
3. Whiskey Whim
GALLEGA is by a 5% debut turf sire. Her dam went 2-0-0-0 on the green and this is her first grass foal. Do you see her last race? Throw it out. You can’t run off pre-race and then prove reluctant to load and hope to have anything left. That race did come back key when 3 of 8 returned to win with figs of 67, 61, and 54 (two more finished 2nd with figs of 63 and 50). This filly goes from a 6% barn to team Joseph. Of course they find a better spot. Works are well spaced. COME ON POPPI is feeling good and now strings four races together. She can handle the grass and goes for a high-percentage barn. WHISKEY WHIM is better on the grass, right? She draws fine but only gets an average pace to chase. LOVE OF J is by a 6% debut turf sire. Her dam never tried the green and this is her first grass foal.
Second Race
1. Cuddle the Kitten
2. Mary Marguerite
3. Mamuka
CUDDLE THE KITTEN is two for two on the dirt and the same going this one turn mile. What is going to change today? Connections find another good spot as musical jocks continue. MARY MARGUERITE did finish 2nd in her only start on the dirt, and it came here in her debut. Will she like a one turn mile though? Her figs figure, but she has lost as the chalk in back-to-back starts. MAMUKA has now finished 2nd in both starts on this dirt. Is she a new dirt horse? She is often a good price but doesn’t get any pace help today. TERRIE T exits a key race where 2 of 2 returned to win with figs of 69 and 61.
Third Race
1. Nenas Star
2. Facet
3. Let Loose Lucy
NENAS STAR got an early breather off the layoff yet still tired. She won’t have to go that quick in this spot to again find the front end. Maybe a new jock can ration her speed a tad better today. FACET was only a length back with a furlong to go in her most recent, so that was a better race. Now she puts three races together and drops in class. We like to call this the money run. LET LOOSE LUCY is by an 0-for-2 debut sire. Her dam went 3-0-0-0, and this is her first foal. Her lack of breeding info just has to help the price. We spy some works that are more than interesting. Plus, we like older maidens making their debut. OUR PERFECT AMANDA exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 69 and 69.
Fifth Race
1. Complexed
2. Candy Addiction
3. Operation Torch
COMPLEXED is a hard trier that finds a good spot all for a top-shelf barn. He has speed but can stalk, and we like versatile horses. Regular rider tags along and the price might be decent. CANDY ADDICTION ran well one, three, and four back. He was denied a clean trip two back. Race flow is OK, and we bet this guy is a good price. Outside post does hurt a tad. OPERATION TORCH was hard held two back, but it worked when victorious at 7/2. Tough to be rank and run well, which was the case last out. Which version are we going to get today? New pilot is noted.
Sixth Race
1. High Ambition
2. Vermont
3. Lord Henry
HIGH AMBITION is by a 15% debut sire (all debut stats are for 2YO’s only). His turf sire is 1 for 1 with debut turfers (all starters). His dam was unraced, and this is her first foal. If team D’Angelo wants a turf sprint for a debut, then we pay attention. VERMONT is by a sire that has yet to have a grass starter (at least that is what our computer says). His dam went 9-1-0-2 on the green and banked 36K. Lone turf sib is 4-0-0-0. Team Braddy are 18% with their maiden 2nd-time starters. LORD HENRY is by a 9% debut sire and a 7% debut turf sire. His dam went 5-1-1-0 and earned 44K (0 for 1 on the weeds). Lone sib is 10-2-0-3 for 51K (0 for 1 on the sod). Trainer stats are solid across the board. SLEW DE ORO is by a 6% debut turf sire. His dam missed the board in only turf start and this is her first grass foal. EPIC IMPACT is by a 0 for 2 debut turf sire. His dam went 8-1-2-1 on the green for 79K (won turf debut). This is her first grass foal. WIN JET WIN is by a 12% debut turf sire. His dam went 1-0-0-0 on the green. One of five sibs won on the sod. ROAD TO MIDNIGHT is by a sire that has yet to have a turf starter. His dam went 9-1-0-2 on the green for 36K. Lone turf sib is 4-0-0-0.
Seventh Race
1. Navy Cross
2. Bettera
3. Saratoga Flash
NAVY CROSS fought hard off the layoff and was right there with a furlong to go before giving up the ship and the front end. He draws better today and could find the front end again. We spy more than a few tries before the layoff that fit here. What if he moves forward second off the layoff? Win rider returns in Perez, and of course we love that. BETTERA is feeling great but is stuck outside. He can put good races together and keeps win rider. We like how this guy can win on the dirt, turf, and synth. SARATOGA FLASH draws worst. He is going to lose some ground into the first turn, with the only question being how much. Maybe the class drop overcomes all. He has won the Tapeta before. Jock switch is noted.
Eighth Race
1. R Winchester
2. Wine Candy
3. Sonic Surge
R WINCHESTER goes from a 6% barn to a 22% barn and perhaps that helps. Make no mistake in that the previous barn did a wonderful job with this colt who won two of three at Tampa and with good Beyers of 73/76. Local works are rock solid. This guy comes in fresh and has some speed all in a race without a ton of speed. Oh, his last race came back key when 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 73 and 52. WINE CANDY did try better at Tampa before the freshening. We know this guy likes it here. Don’t forget that this colt did finish 3rd in a local stakes going six furlongs in the slop. SONIC SURGE is the one to beat. Form cycle hints at better while recent figs top everyone. This horse was claimed for 35K so this drop makes sense.
Ninth Race
1. Elenique
2. Warrior Sophie
3. Keepsake Box
ELENIQUE has tried two turns on the turf twice and ran well in both. We like how connections waited for this turf course to open after her maiden win. She is bred to like the green with her 348 turf Tommy. Race flow is fast if all stay in, and this filly wants to pass runners. Herrera should be a good fit for this horse. WARRIOR SOPHIE ran a Beyer top in her only turf start, which came just two back. Here is another that might like the green with her 334 turf Tomlinson. This filly cut back to synth sprint in her most recent and still held her form. We like that. KEEPSAKE BOX is better on the grass, right? A stalking trip works for us all for a high percentage barn. FIRST CLASS T L C is by a 12% debut sire and a 10% debut turf sire. Her dam went 28-6-4-6 and earned 150K (won 2YO debut). Said mom went 2-0-0-0 on the green, and this is her first grass foal. CURLY SUE is by a 12% debut turf sire. Her dam went 8-1-1-2 on the green for 61K. One of two sibs won on the sod. LADY SHARMA is by a 13% debut sire and 1 for 6 debut turf sire. Her dam was unraced. Lone sib is 3-0-0-0 (one turf start).
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