France vs. Spain
Dallas Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Tuesday, July 14th, 3:00 p.m. ET
What a first World Cup semifinal we have in store in Texas as two European heavyweights collide. In my opinion, these two elite squads are hard to separate, but with France +130 clear favorites, the value may lie on the other side of the market.
There is enough juice in that +225 Spain moneyline price that we can look at the derivative markets, and I wouldn’t put you off the +0.25 Asian Handicap. However, betting them to reach the final looks the best route in. This fixture has all the ingredients of a tense, tactical semi-final between two familiar foes where extra time or penalties are a realistic outcome, making the “to qualify” market very attractive.
Spain has conceded just one goal in their five matches, controlling possession and dictating tempo to rarely give opponents a sight of their goal. Allowing few clear chances is especially important against a French side built to punish teams in transition.
Despite the enviable firepower at his disposal, expect Didier Deschamps to revert more to type for this clash and not be too open too soon. We should see Les Bleus remain compact, soak up pressure then play on the break, while the Spanish patiently retain the ball, probing for a breakthrough.
It feels to me Spain’s incredible form has been undervalued, especially with this game on neutral territory. They are unbeaten in regulation time across their last 36 internationals and can equal Italy’s record here.
La Roja has only lost one game in the last four major tournaments, a run that spans 27 matches and none of the last 14 of those. While coach Luis de la Fuente has yet to taste defeat at a World Cup or Euros, winning 12 of his 13 games in charge at them and has won both meetings with the French.
With the market favoring France, Spain must offer the value. They have all the tools to come out on the right side of what should be a semifinal of fine margins, even if it takes 120 minutes or penalties to decide it.
World Cup Best Bet: France vs Spain – Spain to qualify at +120.
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