Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Scott Ehlers handicaps the Monday, July 27 racing card at Gulfstream Park, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Noffies Late Nite (7th race)
Seventh Race
1. Noffies Late Nite
2. Bodacious Queen
3. Ignis Cor
NOFFIES LATE NITE is by an 11% debut sire and a 10% debut turf sire. Her dam went 8-2-1-1 and earned 148K (no turf ). This is her first foal. Works are plentiful for this 4YO and we are starting to like older debut maidens more and more. BODACIOUS QUEEN beat over half the field home four back and that was the last time that she tried the grass. Not sure what happened last out. Are connections using that poor race to drop down and steal a purse while avoiding a claim? IGNIS COR exits the key common race where 2 of 2 returned to win with figs of 57 and 50. Second time with new barn can’t hurt nor third time in a turf sprint. WINNING DEFENSE is by a 11% debut turf sire. Her dam went 18-6-2-4 and earned 132K on the green. Lone grass sibling is 1-0-0-0. THE COROMOTO is by a 6% debut turf sire. Her dam went 6-1-2-1 on the green and banked 59K. One of four sibs won on the sod. DILLY DALLY is by a 9% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the green. Six sibs failed to win on the green.
Here are Scott’s thoughts on the other eight races on Monday’s Gulfstream Park card.
First Race
1. She’s Trippin
2. Victorious Secret
3. Idiom
SHE’S TRIPPIN has run back-to-back Beyer tops and did so in her only two turf starts. She sheds the blinkers today and that is a 40% move for this barn. We like this rail start. VICTORIOUS SECRET has speed and could easily find the front end. Added half furlong could help if 395 distance Tommy is any indication. This filly will have to break in a new pilot. What if next door neighbor shows some zip? This filly did pass a runner in her turf debut. Good horses often find a way to win. IDIOM is by a 6% debut turf sire. Her dam went 3-1-0-0 on the green and earned 17K. Lone grass sib is 5-1-1-1 for 17K. Grass and distance Tommies are encouraging at 312/376. SOLITARY PASSION is by an 8% debut turf sire. Her dam went 8-0-1-1 on the green and earned 8K. Lone sibling never tried the weeds.
Second Race
1. Coralline
2. Golden Safari
3. Daughter’s Legacy
CORALLINE is by a 31% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam went 4-1-0-0 and banked 12K. Two of four sibs won and both beat winners (333K and 54K). This filly cost a cool quarter of a million even though sire fee was only 15K. Works and post fit nicely. GOLDEN SAFARI is by a 20% debut sire. Her dam went 17-4-2-3 and earned 42K. This is her first foal. Win early sire is main calling card. DAUGHTER’S LEGACY is by a 0 for 4 debut sire. Her dam went 33-6-4-4 and earned 121K. Lone sib is 8-1-0-0 for 6K. A 19% debut barn calls the shots. GOLDEN GREY is by a 17% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. One of two sibs won and is a multiple winner of 39K. PAN HANDLE MICK is by a 0 for 8 debut sire. Her dam went 9-2-0-1 for 51K and this is her first foal. NO CALLER ID is by a 13% debut sire. Her dam went 7-1-0-1 and earned 30K. Lone sib is 10-1-1-2 and earned 57K. DAMA DU SUCRE is by an 8% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced and this is her first foal.
Third Race
1. Gus Swayze
2. Chalky White
3. Commendatore
GUS SWAYZE is a hard trier that is good on the dirt, synth, and turf. This improving 3YO goes for a new barn that is 28% off the claim. He got a Beyer top only two back and that was his first and only try going seven panels. Recent sharp works before his most recent are interesting as is the fact that this guy caught a good sod last out. This spot looks ideal. CHALKY WHITE has never missed the exacta going this tricky elongated sprint distance. New barn is 18% with recent acquisitions. Works are rock solid, including those Arindel drills. COMMENDATORE broke his maiden going this far only two back. Did a good dirt hurt last out? We do like that connections return this guy to win distance. Class drop might be key.
Fourth Race
1. Noble Pride
2. Wordondastreet
3. Motor City Man
NOBLE PRIDE was buried on the rail going seven panels in his second start but still ran evenly. Added furlong has to help while 3 of 7 sibs beat winners. Team Fawkes sees fit to raise the class bar, and who are we to disagree? WORDONDASTREET is a grinder that returns off the freshening. Works are perfect. This colt is often a great price. A one turn mile is a good fit. MOTOR CITY MAN didn’t do much in his debut, but he got needed race experience and that is what matters most. Three of six sibs beat winners. A pair of recent works is just right.
Fifth Race
1. Duchess Eleanor
2. Kate the Smate
3. Bella Jak
DUCHESS ELEANOR cuts back to a sprint and that might be key. Her 399 distance Tommy screams sprint. She caught a good dirt three back when going six furlongs but what if she didn’t like that track? The next sprint back, which came 7 back, was her maiden breaker versus 32K foes at Tampa. There is not a lot of zip in here and this filly could show speed. KATE THE SMATE lost as the chalk off the layoff but still ran OK. Voided claim will scare some but not us as we see too many return to run well. This filly could find the front end again and gets in light, which might help sharpen her early zip. BELLA JAK is just better in her last pair and she did so at 30 and 60 to 1. Those were Beyer tops on top of that.
Sixth Race
1. Elusive Chalice
2. Bundalay
3. Starship Spectacle
ELUSIVE CHALICE broke last in her debut and then beat one home. Great, that helps today’s price. This filly is bred to love sprinting with her 412 distance Tomlinson. Team Orseno is 16% off this type of layoff and 15% with their second-time maidens. In fact, trainer stats are good across the board. BUNDALAY has speed and comes in fresh. There isn’t much pace in this race. She draws inside but isn’t stuck on the rail. Just in case, this horse did pass runners two back. STARSHIP SPECTACLE is better of late. Can she put three good races together though? There is a reason why horses are at this level and consistency is not one of them.
Eighth Race
1. Latch the Hatch
2. Icelander
3. Noble J
LATCH THE HATCH has run well on numerous tries going either 6 1/2 furlongs or seven, so today’s one turn mile might be ideal. This guy has some speed and does like this dirt. Gonzalez returns and this horse often responds well to him. Was six furlongs a tad short previously? ICELANDER did get an 81 Beyer going this distance only two back. Was that a classic bounce in his most recent? Or were those Hcap foes too tough? How about a bit of both? NOBLE J is feeling great. Something must have gone awry three back, hence the time off. Gonzalez leaves for our top pick, so Husbands picks up the call but doesn’t ride all that often for this barn.
Ninth Race
1. Sabian
2. Giant Teddy
3. Es Aristocratico
SABIAN catches a race with good pace. Those turf sprints only two and three back certainly fit. He got a confidence boost last out and this barn is 21% with their repeating winners. GIANT TEDDY has speed but can stalk. This outside post is ideal. This guy has run well in both grass starts here. Voided claim just doesn’t faze us much. ES ARISTOCRATICO came to America for a reason, right? We thought this guy might fire in his US debut, but alas he didn’t. Breaking last didn’t help matters. What if this guy digs the grass? Dam and sibs all raced in Argentina, so no help there. Sire is 0 for 1 with first turfers (2 for 5 with all turf starters). Any horse that can win 10 of 22 starts is interesting. REDHOTNOTBOTHERED is by a 10% debut turf sire. His dam went 3-2-0-1 on the green for 50K. Four sibs failed to win on the green, but one did hit the board.
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