Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 27. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Monday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Monday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Merrill Kelly Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115) vs. Pirates
Diamondbacks at Pirates – 6:40 pm ET
Kelly has recorded three strikeouts in each of his last two starts, and he’s only averaging 3.6 strikeouts per game this season. However, the Pirates have been miserable when it comes to avoiding Ks against righties this season. They have a strikeout rate of 23.6% against them this year, and things have only been worse recently. In the last 10 games in which Pittsburgh has faced righty starters, the team has a strikeout rate of 34.4%. For context, the Angels have the highest strikeout rate in the league at 25.1%. Kelly really should be able to do some more damage than usual with his swing-and-miss stuff, even if this is a game the Pirates are favored to win.
Max Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+118) vs. White Sox
Yankees at White Sox – 7:40 pm ET
Fried looked on point with his stuff in his first start back from injury, striking out seven against the Pirates on July 22. Well, the southpaw should be able to rack up some Ks on Monday, even if his leash isn’t all that long. This season, the White Sox have a strikeout rate of 24.7% when facing left-handed pitching. So, while this is a hitter-friendly park and the weather makes for even more hitter-friendly conditions, I like Fried to reach six Ks.
Tatsuya Imai Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+128) vs. Angels
Astros at Angels – 9:38 pm ET
I mentioned the Angels having the highest strikeout rate in baseball earlier, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that I’m targeting them with a strikeout prop. It also shouldn’t come as a surprise that I’m going to it with Imai. The Astros righty has had an up-and-down season in Houston, but he comes into this start having recorded at least eight strikeouts in three of his last five outings. Well, we don’t need eight this evening. We’ll take seven.
Additional Picks
Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100) vs. Mariners
Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140) vs. Athletics
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Max Scherzer Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+132) vs. Nationals
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 4.60 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -208 — a +24.4% edge to the Over.
Evan Carter Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-146) vs. Mariners
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.80 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -503 — a +24.1% edge to the Over.
Kyle Manzardo Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130) vs. Reds
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.61 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -401 — a +23.5% edge to the Over.
