Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Welsch handicaps the Saturday, February 21 racing card at Gulfstream Park, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 2.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Celebrity Warrior (12th race)
Twelfth Race
1. Celebrity Warrior
2. Conciliation
3. Vekoma View
CELEBRITY WARRIOR stumbled badly at the break, got fanned extremely wide trying to make a race of it around the second turn, and into the stretch of her 3yo debut. Back to preferred surface and getting a mulligan for her last. Was second best to Ultimate Love in the Selima, that one finishing fifth as tepid favorite in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. CONCILIATION is a new face to the category who appears to be working forwardly on the dirt prepping for career bow. Hard to gauge from breeding standpoint being the first foal to race out of an unraced mare. VEKOMA VIEW is well-bred for the going, being kin to G1 placed Cliffs. Ran a strange but promising race over very wet Tapeta course at first asking when spinning wheels mid-stages before coming on strongly at the end. Dreaming of Joy a half to Malathaat who earned $3.7 million but all of that coming on dirt. The face this one debut on grass perhaps a bit of a red flag at what figures to be short price out of this barn.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other eleven races on Saturday’s Gulfstream Park card.
First Race
1. Little Georgie
2. Jokette
3. Three to G
LITTLE GEORGIE turned in solid main track bow behind her own stable mate and even money favorite La Dolce Vita, has been freshened, now switches to the turf off several decent inner course breezes, including swift 1/2 on 2/6 when best in company with multiple allowance winner Ultimate Authority. Sheds blinkers, might get brave if able to get the early jump on the speed in here, including heavy favorite Three to G. JOKETTE may be bets of the two Walsh-trained first-time starters in this lineup, especially off her work on 2/13 with MSW grass winning mate Surprise Ending. Should offer some value here.Lots to like about THREE TO G off game career debut except the price, likely to be very short with Irad taking the call. Has been in Gargan barn all along, train serving days at the time of this one’s only previous start.
Second Race
1. Sweet Dream Lady
2. Affluenza
3. Nasti Z
SWEET DREAM LADY paired Beyer top figures in her last two starts, was beaten a neck for second money in latest by Turkish Pistachio, who came back to defeat same kind with 74 Beyer in her next start. Well posted to take advantage of what has been the track bias of late. AFFLUENZA has shown promise in the a.m. going into debut and got pinned down on a dead rail throughout. Comes up tagged for second try and deserving of another chance although drawn near inside once again, must avoid another inside trip. . NASTI Z held own in the a.m. prepping for her debut with Justina, who beat $50K company, including preferred choice on 1/4. Demands a ton of respect launching career in this spot.
Third Race
1. Gallant Knight
2. Lou the Body
3. Sound of the Beast
GALLANT KNIGHT stays put off the claim and a game effort in defeat when pinned down nearest rail by ultimate winner Sound of the Beast. Draws outside that rival, lures Irad for rematch. Can turn the tables with the right trip. LOU THE BODY had a slow start, ran bang up second dropping for this tag for the first time earlier this month, the winner benefiting from track bias closing full of run down the center of the course. Rajiv stays. In good position to get back on winning track, turning back to this distance off series of longer tries. SOUND OF THE BEAST a logical choice off his last pair but benefited from the track on both occasions and drawn inside today. Perhaps vulnerable today at another short price.
Fourth Race
1. Loud Applause
2. Lodato
3. G Speedy
LOUD APPLAUSE hard used contesting pace when dropped to bottom last time now picks up veteran rider and could stand some catching ala graduation day if away clean and able to clear off from his inside draw. LODATO well spotted off the well-graded maiden win. Strictly one to beat. G SPEEDY another getting some class relief while returning to preferred surface for the occasion. Was reclaimed by current connections earlier in the session.
Fifth Race
1. Harpy
2. Little Gussie
3. Tiger Eye Pearl
HARPY plunges to the bottom for local bow. Had brutal trips in both previous starts in N.Y., her last outing coming against a very strong field from which winner ultimately became a stakes winner. Held own with allowance-winning mate Wooton in one of her recent Tapeta drills. Expect to see her on or with the pace from outset with a clean beginning. LITTLE GUSSIE a beaten favorite in each of her last three starts but getting additional class relief off the claim and Irad up for the first time. Now or never in here. TIGER EYE PEARL demands respect simply by being a new face to this weak category. Workout reports indicate she will debut with blinkers today.
Sixth Race
1. Phoenix of Wit
2. Starship Melody
3. Jalila
PHOENIX OF WIT shaky nod in always wide open category. Won similar condition last month at Tampa, remains eligible for category by virtue of the money won in that race, one which produced a couple of next-out winners. Was second best to Chad Brown’s Peak Hype last fall in N Y, that one subsequently finishing fourth in the Pebbles S. Should be forwardly placed throughout in this lineup. STARSHIP MELODY back to preferred surface and did run career best Beyer last time on grass when second best behind wire-to-wire winner. Looked sharp blowing out for this last week on main. JALILA checked to last at the break, got hung very wide around the opening turn, never menaced when back with allowance company for first time four weeks earlier. One more chance with a cleaner trip against this kind.
Seventh Race
1. Jimmies Big Day
2. To the Eastside
3. Zydeceaux
JIMMIES BIG DAY broke from the rail, ran very well in defeat with same kind last time getting pinned near inside late stages, holding well for second money behind runaway winner who finished full of run out in better footing near mid-track. Has outside draw while back at preferred distance today. TO THE EASTSIDE exits a very strong race won by classy old Mish and from which runner-up I Don’t Get it already returned to win at even money with an 80 Beyer in his next start. Inside draw the main concern. ZYDECEAUX looks like the speed of the speed coming in fresh off the bench, might take these a long ways if kept out in better foot on the front end.
Eighth Race
1. Ovechkin
2. Fancy Gentleman
3. Autobahn
OVECHKIN didn’t have the best of trips after getting shuffled around on second turn switching to turf, trying two turns for first time in 3yo bow. Dons shades, has shown enough promise in the a.m. on dirt to suggest best may be yet to come. Should offer some value behind FANCY GENTLEMAN exiting promising second behind well-graded debut winner Thunderously when making his two turn bow on 1/10 while finishing on deep rail to boot. Strictly one to beat at a short price. AUTOBAHN also had misfortune to catch a very promising member of the 3yo division, Canaletto, when finishing third trying a mile last time. Should move forward off the effort and well posted outside with Irad.
Ninth Race
1. Maggie Go
2. Afrodita
3. Pretty Lavish
MAGGIE GO gets tepid call returning to turf and trying the surface for first time against allowance opposition. Ran well in U S debut against decent bunch of G3 foes last summer at Monmouth and should benefit from last one on the main. AFRODITA another who has held own with much better, but the fact she comes up tagged to be eligible for the race conjures up a bit of a red flag. Beaten just a few lengths by Silver Moonlight two back. PRETTY LAVISH had to take up briefly on the turn, finished best of all when dropping into the category for first time last month and another with stakes experience that figures to fit well with cleaner sailing. Lady Kathryn figures to get loose on an easy lead at a square price. Just a question of how far she’ll carry that speed at a square price.
Tenth Race
1. Con Compania
2. Damon’s Mound
3. Wound Up
CON COMPANIA wanted no part of a mile and one sixteenth making first start since changing barns via private purchase last fall. Back to what he does best, well posted outside, should sit a perfect pace stalking trip with plenty of speed drawn to his inside. DAMON’S MOUND has cycled back to top form again for Mott barn, beat much weaker last time but still the class of this field. Could find making the lead a little more difficult with this bunch at yet another short price but still the one to fear. WOUND UP ran credibly behind Knightsbridge making local bow in the Mr Prospector and not facing anything near that kind while turning back to six panels for this.
Eleventh Race
1. Mi Triguena
2. U Know When U Know
3. Compass Rises
MI TRIGUENA and U KNOW WHEN U KNOW stepping up in class off conditioned claiming wins to open company but both exiting career best performances from a Beyer standpoint and perhaps able to handle the hike in their present form. Each capable of running from off the pace, which might do them well in a race that features plenty of early pace if holding together at scratch time. Two of many to consider in this one. COMPASS RISES re-claimed by current barn and did beat same kind for Rodriguez two back. Another who should come running at the end.
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