Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Welsch handicaps the Thursday, April 2 racing card at Gulfstream Park, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 3.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Dime Papi (3rd race)
Third Race
1. Dime Papi
2. Song So Sweet
3. Oasis Prince
DIME PAPI second best off the claim vs. same kind despite fanning four wide turning for home in latest. Expect to see a little closer to the pace this time around. SONG SO SWEET back to a mile, a distance at which he posted Beyer topper two back, albeit while finishing a neck back of the preferred choice. Makes third start in four weeks today. OASIS PRINCE drops off dull one last time on Tapeta and obviously a big question mark trying dirt for first time here.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other eight races on Thursday’s Gulfstream Park card.
First Race
1. Four Guns
2. Gus Swayze
3. Gondorff
Assuming, although not overly confident, the turf course will be open for business when racing resumes on Thursday. FOUR GUNS returns to the grass(hopefully) coming off a pair of Tapeta sprints that should sharpen his speed for today’s assignment. Ran better than it looks seventh in turf bow after ducking in at the start and taking up in some traffic, getting shuffled back from close contention through early stretch. Luis Saez, might offer some value in opener. GUS SWAYZE is the logical choice, staying put off the claim after finishing third on the drop to this level last month. Had effort flattered when runner-up returned to win maiden for same tag by 4 lengths on Tapeta. GONDORFF the likely favorite off relatively well graded career bow vs. stronger earlier this winter. Over-matched, likely bounced at second asking from tough post. Hard to ignore.
Second Race
1. Soda
2. Mischievous Scout
3. Lucky Berry
SODA earned career best Beyer last time behind mega-class dropper Dirty Diana and came back with a sharp work over Tapeta prepping for this. Ready to graduate with a clean run. MISCHIEVOUS SCOUT comes off what might have been a much-needed try returning from a three-month hiatus. Was beaten just a neck in key race two back. Gets big weight edge from other main contenders with bug rider taking the call. Might try to steal this one gate-to-wire from the rail. LUCKY BERRY rallied widest and on the wrong lead while posting career best number of his own vs. same kind four weeks earlier. Should be coming best at the end.
Fourth Race
1. Hot Cocoa
2. Hope Town Girl
3. Harpy
HOT COCOA has been away a while and trying dirt for just the second time but has held own with perhaps better in all recent tries, and Beyers heading in right direction when given a break earlier this winter. Might prove bit of a sleeper in this weak spot. HOPE TOWN GIRL the obvious choice at short odds exiting big debut when no match for winner but half a pole best of others. May nod look back shortening to this distance. HARPY back on dirt for just the second time. Has not had the best of trips in his previous outings.
Fifth Race
1. Lazio
2. Carcone
3. Adversary
LAZIO steps up in company off a solid effort with Lasix added for new connections on 3/6, finishing second best following poor start, tough trip. Has since come back with another big move over the surface and well posted outside today. CARCONE getting ample class relief after holding own with much tougher last time. The same is true for ADVERSARY who drops out of same event when over-matched throughout. Expect improvement for this tag.
Sixth Race
1. Cost of War
2. Man With the Money
3. Night
COST OF WAR idle a long time since well backed for career bow at 2 (in key race at Churchill Downs) and showing a lot of speed in a.m. prepping for return. Gets full makeover, first time gelding and Lasix, for the return. Deserves another chance. MAN WITH THE MONEY hard to look past off the big effort over the surface last time when chasing, hanging late behind wire-to-wire winner and MSW dropper Cajun Gold. Need only repeat the effort to earn his own diploma at a much shorter price here. NIGHT continues to improve from a Beyer standpoint with every start and not far behind MWTH in pair’s previous encounter. Three Mile Gold has been keeping some pretty good company, including Wood-bound Napoleon Solo, in the a.m. and did show speed while trapped on dead rail in debut. Switches to grass, might prove sleeper at big balloons.
Seventh Race
1. Drama
2. Coqueta Blue
3. Velvet Rage
DRAMA chased home La Chismosa as the choice last time at Tampa, the latter finishing second behind 2-5 Tesselate in stakes over same track last weekend. Not facing that kind for this tag. May not look back. COQUETA BLUE another shipping south from TBD after flashing speed going seven panels, coming out second best in latest. Should sit a stalking trip on turn back to six panels. VELVET RAGE one of only three multiple winners in the field but coming off good effort last time on the Tapeta. Switch to dirt the key.
Eighth Race
1. Zevi’s Zone
2. Bronze Bullet
3. Skipping Stars
ZEVI’S ZONE chased Saffie Joseph trained odds on Gold Perl, faded late in his most recent start but not fading that kind returning to state-bred company. Blew out smartly for this. Might get brave at square price if able to strike the front early on with these. BRONZE BULLET the logical choice returning to a surface over which he hit the wire first in Pulpit Stakes in his 2yo finale only to lose the victory via a stewards’ disqualification. Figures to be coming on strong at the end. Stablemate SKIPPING STARS will be the bigger price of the pair but does figure to improve off last one when returning from three-month hiatus vs. similar. One on the synthetic at 2 and appears to have gotten the better of Bronze B when pair worked on turf on 2/6.
Ninth Race
1. Nyfive
2. Vanish
3. Noche de Damas
NYFIVE one of any number of potential win candidates in finale assuming this one stays on turf as scheduled(raining very hard while typing this). A game winner over the surface on graduation day when showing big improvement first time Lasix and continues to train forwardly out of that race. VANISH another who seems best suited for the grass. Missed a neck to 6/5 Duchessa last time at Tampa and the lone member of the lineup to have graduated under a $50K tag. NOCHE DE DAMAS on the improve from Beyer standpoint and a versatile sort who appears capable on grass or synthetic.
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