Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Friday, October 2 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 3.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Master Queen (3rd race)
Third Race
1. Master Queen
2. Virabhadrasana
3. Seaside Startup
Guess is that MASTER QUEEN will be overlooked here, but her debut win at CNL – lone dirt start – visually more impressive to me than VIRABHADRASANA’s second-out SAR maiden score. Didn’t run a step at CNL – and thus just throwing that race out. We don’t get work video from CDT but that was at least a fast recent half-mile. Virahadrasana clearly needed her debut – finished with interest, for sure, and the race clearly woke her up, given the much improved last second time out. Did get a great trip – in part because she put herself there – but I liked the way she finished off, and third-place Foxiest returned to air on closing weekend at CD. Am not strictly “against” her, but she’s going to get blasted in the win pool, and there might be opportunity with Master Queen. SEASIDE STARTUP managed to never leave the rail en route to debut win at SAR, though you’d have to think the $150K maiden-claiming tag caps the upside to some extent. `I actually liked the way she looked/ran, but, FWIW, the barn hasn’t won a KEE fall dirt race since 2022.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Friday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Queen of Queens
2. Belle Ofthe Dance
3. Mom’s Cheesecake
No sign from her first five runs that QUEEN OF QUEENS is a turf horse – I look at her long-layoff comeback over the KD turf through that lens – she might be fine on grass, but a dirt horse demonstrating strong form regardless of surface. Every reason (not in for a claiming tag) to expect second-after-layoff improvement; anything meaningful that direction and she stands a strong chance of winning. Can keep up with what ought to be a moderate pace but happy to stalk-and-pounce, and 7f might be ideal. Drawback? She’ll be a pretty low price. BELLE OFTHE DANCE one of five coming out of R6 on Sept. 10 at CD. Noroomformischief actually ran quite well there, but I fear regression after three straight improved performances, and she stuck closer to a slow-paced contest than did BELLE OFTHE DANCE, who also finished with interest and I’d guess has a step forward forthcoming. Looks like a 7f horse to me. MOM’S CHEESECAKE flat in that Sept. 10 race, but was coming back from an extended break and likely aimed toward this start at her favorite track. Probably doesn’t win, but probably does outrun odds.
Second Race
1. National Eclipse
2. Raising Kane
3. Mena
Going through this field, I was going to say the race is low-key shaping as fast-paced – but there’s nothing low-key about it at all. A forest of front-running types, several drawn outside, and if those are ridden to their best advantage – at least in terms of who they are, if not tactically – it’s hard to envision anything but a fast pace. NATIONAL ECLIPSE was going to look like a win contender regardless, and the race should shape his way. Course and distance winner in a $30K maiden-claimer two Octobers ago and solid showings in both 2025 KEE meets. One of four exiting R8 Sept. 10 at CD – run over a “good” track that seemed especially laboring – everyone came home slow off a moderate tempo. Obviously will need luck breaking from rail and trying to wend his way through a bulky field. Maybe RAISING KANE is “better” than National Eclipse – finished in front of him last two times they met – I still like NE to turn the tables. Raising Cane bottomed out at Ellis over the summer – seems back on the way up now. He, too, has presumably the right style. MENA claimed for $62.5K in November, hasn’t been in for lower than $50K since, and also hasn’t won. The steep drop, long time between last race and next work, and expected price – can’t get behind it.
Fourth Race
1. Fast Gun
2. Staged
3. Rules and Regs
Six-race maiden FAST GUN lost two in a row as the favorite and probably favored again. She went the wrong way at Ellis – based on the spring form, she was supposed to be “better” than those horses. Just doesn’t seem like a two-turn horse, and apparently found even the 1 1/2 turns at Ellis too much for her. She’s been freshened, though, and looks like a horse who could really respond to a break. Combine that with cut back to 7f — possibly her best trip — the decent speed she brings to what looks like a relatively paceless race, her spring form over the surface, and the level of competition here, it seems like belated graduation day. One workout video up for first-time starter STAGED, the half-mile from the gate on Aug. 22 – I quite liked the look of it. Plenty of breezes, and I wanted to take her on top, but the barn has such a slim history (at least last five years) with horses like this. No idea if RULES AND REGS can transfer the turf form to dirt – and she trains over synthetic at SKY – but if she did, she’d stand a solid chance.
Fifth Race
1. Pillar of Beauty
2. Light Won Up
3. Laigina
Looks like Kentucky Downs was not for PILLAR OF BEAUTY – she really never lifted her hooves last time out. Not sure a testing 6 1/2 furlongs is what this horse wants in any case – looked better suited to a snappy 5 and 5 1/2, as in the Gulfstream starts and two back at SAR – probably her best race, and the two-turn mile two back might have been a red herring – sat just off a slow pace and sprinted home. Plenty of speed in front of her this time; guess there’s still at least a touch of upside. I was very high on LIGHT WON UP after her turf debut – wasn’t totally wrong, but she didn’t prove to be the horse I thought I saw. In fact, her fifth-place finish last out at KD seemed like a step in the right direction – she went head and head on the lead with the very talented Sapphire Beach and finished just a nose behind her as three from farther back swooped into the trifecta. First Lasix, for whatever that’s worth, and could sit a favorable stalk-and-pounce trip – though I wish she had a little more pounce to her. Nothing but turf routes for LAIGINA – until Kentucky Downs last out. Granted, that win came over a stiff 6 1/2, but if she’s meant to be a one-run, one-turn closer, this shorter distance might still be all right.
Sixth Race
1. Saltwater Soul
2. National Forest
3. Kingside
We don’t get Ellis Park work video, but there are two up for SALTWATER SOUL before he left Saratoga. Have to go with that; I thought I saw there – a real talent. Looks like he has speed, but he also appears to be professional and rateable, and I love the way he goes. Those are some very lively Ellis drills as barn put the finishing touches on what sure seems like a well-intentioned debut. All that said, NATIONAL FOREST could just prove too much as the favorite. He had to be pretty hard used from a wide draw in order not to lose too much ground on the turn, and that might have caught up with him in deep stretch, where the front-running winner started getting away. That horse hasn’t run back, but third-place Staunch won well over a one-turn mile last week at Churchill. Trainer B Walsh with two first-time starters here, with General Jack working over Tapeta at Turfway and KINGSIDE doing his training on Churchill dirt. There’s one work video up for Kingside – alas, it shows four horses working out of the gate and identifies only Kingside. I thought as a son of Upstart he might have an especially Upstart-y look to him, but I couldn’t pick him out. In any case, the barn warmed up late in the CD meet and might have some live ones at KEE.
Seventh Race
1. Viking
2. Hymn
3. Nakatomi
VIKING has been ultra-impressive – even more so visually than the speed figures and running lines – since a barn change sent him to trainer D Fawkes. He does face a higher level of competition here, for sure, but smacked around decent horses in Florida. Can’t just go to the front and won this – there’s too much speed – but the guess is he’d be perfectly happy coming from fifth or some such as long as he doesn’t get buried. One work video since the last race – encouraging enough. The G1 Forego winner is supposed to look mighty good in the G3 Phoenix – but the older sprint division has been a mess this year, and HYMN probably has no decided edge here. Feel like the 100 Beyer doesn’t quite line up with his Vanderbilt two back; not convinced he maintains the recent form surge, and fairly convinced he’s better off at 7f. This field came up somewhat tougher than the one NAKATOMI beat winning the ’25 Phoenix – but not enormously so. His limits are his limits, and he’s certainly not going to run any better than he did a year ago, but the SAR prep probably was very useful and the horse does thrive at his home track, KEE.
Eighth Race
1. Seneca Park
2. Lucky Bernadine
3. Mightily
Golden Pal, of course, was a crack sprinter, but it’s early to label his offspring as strictly sprinters. He, in fact, has a debut route winner in this very race – Golden Maiden. SENECA PARK, a daughter of Golden Pal, hit the line in her excellent sprint debut still full of run, and she certainly wasn’t laying down at the end of 6 1/2 furlong Untapable last out at KD – far from it, in fact, wearing down a tough foe and edging clear before appearing (the KD gallop-out presentation needs some work) with more still in the tank. To me, she’s the most talented horse in the race, and the question just is whether she can stay. That said, LUCKY BERNADINE did flash some real ability in the second-out KD maiden win last start, and we already know she can route. I see her continuing to improve and would guess LB’s the one SP has to hold off if she comes to the furlong grounds with a lead. My biggest takeaway from the Kitten’s Joy at Colonial is – look out for Popcorn. He looks like a bear and runs Sunday at KEE in the Bourbon. MIGHTILY was considerably better than all but her in the Kitten’s Joy. As one can see, I’m fading the PG Johnson at SAR, which produces three starters here. Only five went into the gate in that race, one was eased, and the favorite ran poorly.
Ninth Race
1. Summer Starlet
2. Emphatic
3. Forever Carina
Saratoga can be Saratoga, and SUMMER STARLET, for all that she looks like a route horse, has yet to route. And I still can’t quite get over the fact this filly, all nearly 17 hands of her, went off at odds of 15-1 in her debut. As good as she was first time, she improved considerably last time – sticking closer to the leaders, and doing so easily, while still producing a powerhouse finish. Weirdly, has her third rider in three races. I just can’t try to beat her, though EMPHATIC looks like the one if you’re inclined to do so. The CNL debut / MTH Sorority route an odd one for this stable, but out on the other side of those two starts, this filly looks serious. She rates and she finishes – took a breather to 3/16 pole last out and still had another gear. Favorable work video since that start. FOREVER CARINA, sister to 2026 KY Oaks winner Always a Runner, did get an excellent setup in her winning debut, but to her credit did make the most of it. She might be a serious talent and ought to be a fair price.
Tenth Race
1. Michael’s Cove
2. The Brigade
3. My Boy Tony
A huge number of real turf route influences in the deep pedigree of MICHAEL’S COVE. Go ahead and say it: “So what?” That’s fine, but we’re looking at a horse who just found himself two starts ago with a switch to turf and now is asked to go from one mile to 1 3/16 miles. Obviously a good pace setup last time, but there’s very little pace entered in this absolutely wide-open N1X allowance. I’d be shopping for prices. THE BRIGADE looks more solid than many, but surely can’t do any better than his last two and must cope with a poor wide draw – at a relatively short price. MY BOY TONY fits decently – a phrase that could have been written before any one of his seemingly innumerable defeats at this class level.
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