Before really diving into this series, I have a confession to make. I am totally fangirling over this series. Like, this is one of my favorite postseason series of all-time, at least that doesn’t involve my Guardians. The Padres vs. Brewers series has so much stuff to nerd out on and it truly is a fascinating matchup.
This is the eighth playoff appearance in nine years for the Brewers, who have only made the NLCS twice in that span, including last year’s sweep at the hands of the Dodgers. I love so much about this team and this organization and how they do things, but they’re just not well-equipped for the playoffs because they don’t hit for a lot of power. That said, with Jacob Misiorowski’s emergence and some of the other pitchers, including Logan Henderson and even Kyle Harrison, despite his late-season struggles, the rotation is decidedly more playoff-caliber than it was in the past.
Then there’s the Padres, who don’t have a great rotation, but have a true shutdown bullpen and have had one of the better offenses in the league down the stretch. The Brewers were second to the Yankees in runs scored, but the Padres, who jumped all over the Cubs in the Wild Card Round, were third in runs scored in the second half and in the month of September. One of the teams they trailed? The Milwaukee Brewers.
This should be a really good series and a chance for some players to become household names that otherwise might not be. I can’t wait to watch this one.
Padres vs. Brewers NLDS Odds
Brewers -180 // Padres +150
Total Games: 4.5 (+150/-180)
Padres vs. Brewers NLDS Schedule
Game 1 @ MIL: Saturday, October 3, 8:30 p.m. ET (FS1)
Game 2 @ MIL: Sunday, October 4, 4 p.m. ET (FS1)
Game 3 @ SD: Tuesday, October 6, 9:30 p.m. ET (FS1)
Game 4 @ SD: Wednesday, October 7, 10 p.m. ET (FS1) – if necessary
Game 5 @ MIL: Friday, October 9, 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX) – if necessary
Padres vs. Brewers Offense
Slight Edge: Padres
Both of these teams scored a lot of runs and did so in a variety of ways, but there is one reason and one reason only why I give the Padres the edge here. No team in this year’s playoff field hit fewer home runs than the Brewers. Home runs are the currency of the postseason. The team that hits more home runs in a series wins it more often than not. Now, with Misiorowski and Henderson, that gap in power is probably smaller, given that those are two very tough customers to make solid contact against.
But, the Padres, even with a pretty clear handicap at Petco Park, hit 29 more homers than the Brewers. San Diego also stole more bases, which is a big part of Milwaukee’s offense given that they don’t have the reliance or the capacity when it comes to the long ball. It was just two more stolen bases, but it does help the Padres close the gap in a way other teams may not be able to against Milwaukee.
I am skeptical about the Brewers for their .316 BABIP as well. They were one of three teams above .300 and Colorado was one of the other ones. The dimensions of Coors Field coupled with the hitting conditions always have the Rockies near the top of that list. The Pirates were the other team. The highest playoff team otherwise was the Dodgers at .297. The Brewers were seventh in Hard Hit%, so that helped the cause, but also just 21st in Barrel%.
San Diego, like Milwaukee, was a top-10 team by Outs Above Average per Statcast, so San Diego, in theory, should be able to take away some hits that the Brewers might have gotten against other teams, possibly dragging the BABIP down a bit.
But, I don’t want to be all doom and gloom about the Milwaukee offense. Nobody walked at a higher rate than the Brewers at 10.6%. Per FanGraphs’ all-encompassing baserunning metric, BsR, the Brewers were the fourth-best team in that department. They also had the fifth-lowest pop-up rate, which is huge because those are effectively strikeouts. And, the Brewers also had the lowest Chase Rate in baseball. Not chasing pitches not only helps with drawing walks, but also helps with making better contact. It is hard to drive a pitch outside of the zone, but making strong swing decisions allows a team to maximize its contact and that definitely had something to do with the high BABIP.
So, because of the power edge, the Padres get the nod here, but I can see why the Brewers were such a successful offense during the regular season.
Padres vs. Brewers Pitching
Edge: Brewers
It is virtually impossible not to give the edge to the team that has the league’s Cy Young Award winner. Misiorowski was simply spectacular and he wasn’t the only one, as the Brewers finished the regular season second in ERA at 3.51, second in xERA at 3.54, and fourth in FIP at 3.72. Even with Misiorowski, though, the Brewers were just fifth in starter ERA.
That’s not a slight, but it is to say that a five-game series is probably better for them than a seven-game series. Miz had a 1.80 ERA with a 2.12 xERA and a 2.17 FIP over 174.2 masterful innings. Henderson had a 2.47 ERA with a 2.73 xERA and a 3.32 FIP over 98.1 innings. I don’t think I would give Dustin May a start in this series, as he hung a 5.65 ERA with a 6.06 xERA and a 5.06 FIP over his 10 starts. I’d roll with Robert Gasser, who had a 3.98 ERA and pitched well down the stretch. Harrison really fell apart late, but still had a sub-4.00 ERA as a starter.
On the plus side for Milwaukee, whoever doesn’t start becomes a multi-inning relief option and they have a lot of good ones there, including Shane Drohan, who was rough as a starter, but strong as a reliever. Even Chad Patrick in shorter doses might be very effective. The Brewers have the quality and the quantity in a five-game series. If they win this series, we’ll see if they do in a seven-game series.
For the Padres, what they got from Michael King was a huge lift. What they got from Nick Pivetta is probably more of what to expect from the rotation. King took a no-hitter into the seventh in Game 1 against the Cubs. Pivetta struggled his way through 3.1 innings. Had a Game 3 been required, the Padres would have had to decide between Robbie Ray and Walker Buehler. So, starting pitcher depth is not a strength for this team and even King had a 4.40 xERA and a 4.13 FIP to go with a 3.21 ERA during the regular season, as he didn’t miss a lot of bats and had a bit of an elevated walk rate.
But, just as the Brewers have the game’s most electric starter, the Padres have the game’s most electric closer in Mason Miller and he’s the final boss of a bullpen group that is simply excellent. San Diego was fifth in reliever ERA, tops in xERA (by 0.25 points), and second in FIP. Adrian Morejon is a multi-inning weapon and the group runs five or six deep with reliable arms.
However, the Brewers, without nearly as much fanfare, were third in reliever ERA, second in xERA, and fourth in FIP. Trevor Megill had 30 saves to Abner Uribe’s six, but Uribe had a 1.97 ERA in a fireman role. Aaron Ashby was extremely valuable with 87 innings over 74 appearances. Even with a dud of a second half from Antonio Senzatela after he was acquired from the Rockies, this was a standout group.
I think people will be surprised in this series just how good the Brewers bullpen actually is, especially with all the attention paid to San Diego’s.
Padres vs. Brewers Miscellaneous Notes
These were two strong defensive ballclubs. By Outs Above Average, Statcast’s primary fielding metric, the Padres were tied for eighth with the Brewers with 19 OAA and 15 runs prevented. The Brewers had 16 runs prevented. So, a nominal difference there to be sure. One area where the Padres might have an edge is with catcher framing. Willson Contreras was one of the worst framers in the league among regular catchers. Luis Campusano was also below average, but a bit better than Contreras.
I thought Craig Stammen did a great job in his first playoff series. He got Pivetta out quickly to turn it over to a well-rested bullpen in the fourth inning. I also think Brewers skipper Pat Murphy has a great mind for the game and I think he should do well here. Stammen kind of had things fall into his lap nicely in that Cubs series, as his team played from in front and made it easy. When he does have to make higher-leverage decisions, I’m curious to see how it goes.
Padres vs. Brewers NLDS Prediction
Lean: Padres +150
I lean with the Padres solely because of the price. I think -180 on the Brewers is a little rich, but I do think that they win the series. What makes this so difficult to bet is that Misiorowski should be in very good shape in Game 1 and that’s part of the reason why this price is shaded so high. If Miz wins Game 1 as expected, the Brewers become a really heavy favorite to win the series. I don’t think that the Padres pull that upset, but we will see.
I considered Over 4.5 Games as a pick here, as I could see this series going long. Both of these teams can score, both can protect leads, and the long travel could be a factor for the visiting team. At +150, that’s probably my favorite bet of this series, but one that I’m not sure I will lock in.
Instead, I think there are a lot of ways to attack this series on a game-by-game basis, live, or with the player prop markets. That’s how I would approach this one rather than taking a pre-series position.
Other series previews: White Sox/Guardians | Yankees/Rays | Braves/Dodgers
