Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Saturday, April 4 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 10.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Joe Shiesty (10th race)
Tenth Race
1. Joe Shiesty
2. My Boy Prince
3. Yellow Card
Those were not bad horses at all that JOE SHIESTY humbled last out in the Turfway stakes score. The one before that came at the expense of an even better horse, Howard Wolowitz. Turfway Tapeta specialist? Hardly. At least as good on turf and is proven over the KEE turf. Tough trip last fall at Keeneland, but an even worse one at Churchill. Almost like he doesn’t break as well from inside gates? When he does break, like last time, he’s got a great couple first steps. The gelding has run well enough stalking the pace but, to me, is at his best when he’s leading or pressing in the clear, and that’s the trip he gets here. MY BOY PRINCE really does want more ground than this, but even in sprints shorter than ideal, he comes with his big run. Will take some doing finding passage from the rear after breaking from post 2 in a full field. Showed no love for the local lawn in his two tries over it. Maybe YELLOW CARD’s grand showing last out in the Clocker’s Corner was an outlier. I don’t think so. He’s shown at least flashes from the start, got within a half-length of globetrotting turf sprinter Reef Runner in September.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other ten races on Saturday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Gethsemane
2. Thailand
3. Quality Mischief
GETHSEMANE is no star, but he appears to be coming around very nicely. Sprint debut that was too short, decent fifth going long in a race won by one of the Blue Grass favorites, and then a smooth Oaklawn maiden route score. He got a good trip in that race because he traveled so sweetly throughout for Irad Ortiz, who rides him back. Came to the wire with good energy, got an A for the gallop-out, and has since turned in three workouts (no video). Solid selection provided the track’s fair. THAILAND has only raced on turf and Tapeta but has logged every single timed workout of his career on the Keeneland dirt track. Some fairly recent workout video – he looks fast and sharp. QUALITY MISCHIEF outran his odds in two FG stakes before flaming out in the Risen Star. First Lasix FWIW.
Second Race
1. Accost
2. Gilded Bandit
3. Deep Flame
Soldier N Diplomat can’t go 9f, but he was a good 2yo who has sprinter-miler talent, and ACCOST almost beat him debuting at Saratoga last summer. Raced Aug. 30 in another fairly tough heat and didn’t work back until Jan, so we might guess he wasn’t at his best in that second start. Some Payson workout video available – quite encouraging. GILDED BANDIT has been working in blinkers since his blinkerless debut and races in them for the first time here. Trainer B Mott last five years adding blinkers to a second-time start in a dirt maiden: 3-15 wins. GB did well to finish fourth in his debut after falling out the back door and diving to the inside for the end of a sustained rally. Looked in bridle and engaged in the two blinkered drills. DEEP FLAME, a colt of modest stature, ran into a sharp front-running winner shipping from Payson to debut at FG. Decent showing, not all that promising to my eyes.
Third Race
1. Sippin Pretty
2. Solemn Vow
3. Swing Vote
Trainer I Wilkes,as you probably know, does not generally train to win with first-time starters. If a debut horse from his barn runs well, it’s usually a sign they’re pretty talented, and SIPPIN PRETTY ran very well in her debut. Showed a lot of speed, put away the other pace, finally succumbed to closing second-time starter Swing Vote. A prompt second-out winner – did that comfortably – even better than the margin and speed figure. Video of subsequent works in Florida and the recent one at CD – she appears to still be going quite well. Likely winner. SOLEMN VOW won her maiden well enough last fall at KEE that she gets a serious look here. Broke poorly and was twice steadied – significant trouble – into and early on the turn in her FG comeback race. Would have liked to see a little more late spark once she was clear, but figure that as much as anything was a stepping-stone to this. SWING VOTE ran down the top pick two back, then flopped in her two-turn and stakes debut. She’s got a good chance to bounce back but less upside than Sippin Pretty.
Fourth Race
1. Dyna
2. Honfleur
3. Rune
Lotsa turf fillies – very little speed. Unsure how DYNA off a pair of sprints where she had some pace wound up so far behind stretching to two turns in the Miss Grillo. Here, I expect her, with a good break, to sit just off the pace of Rune. Perfect pressing trip could be in order, and in this group, she’s got the ability to press her tactical edge. HONFLEUR in her turf debut and third career start took a nice step forward finishing second on Jan. 4 at Gulfstream. She worked back on Jan. 19 and has worked steadily since – seems clear that trainer C Brown been eyeing a KEE maiden for this filly. Probably favored. Not sure RUNE is a turf horse or a route horse, but she ran all right sprinting at TP last time and might make an easy, easy lead.
Fifth Race
1. Implementation
2. Praetor
3. John Hancock
7yo IMPLEMENTATION has made 30 starts and has been around the block. Made six starts in France and one in England to begin his career. Raced on both coasts. He was good in 2024 and even better in 2025 – stakes-winner better – for trainer S Joseph, who lost him for $80K to current connections last fall at KEE. First start after claim – good. Second start, with blinkers added – very poor. But if we just toss that race, note the fact that trainer M Maker kept him in Kentucky all winter, likely aiming for this meet, and that he’s back on Lasix, the case can be made that he can beat likely heavy favorite PRAETOR. Praetor gave Grande a battle in their common long-layoff comeback start Feb. 14 at Gulfstream. Grande came back to win the Ghostzapper last weekend – more workmanlike than brilliant. He did beat Sovereignty as a 2yo but his career has not yet gotten fully on track. He has a favorable draw and obviously can win – I just think he’ll be overbet. JOHN HANCOCK needs scratches to draw in from AE list and make his first start since the 2025 Louisiana Derby. Limited workout video from Payson – zippy in what we did see.
Sixth Race
1. Shoot It True
2. Buttercream Babe
3. Hey Bertie
SHOOT IT TRUE, 3-5 on the morning line, is a standout on paper and has been breezing – turf and dirt – like she’s going to run right to that form. If she does, it’s a battle for second. I’ll try to get BUTTERCREAM BABE into that slot over second choice HEY BERTIE. First time for a new barn for B Babe, and they try something new, cutting her back to a sprint. I could see that working. Video from one workout at Palm Meadows – encouraging! HEY BERTIE can be a tricky horse to ride – thus her showing two back. Had a decent enough trip and should have won her last race. Can’t handle an in-form Shoot It True.
Seventh Race
1. Saudi Crown
2. Crazy Mason
3. Multitask
Be You will be scratched, leaving a short field of moderate quality for a $350,000 race. While Crazy Mason has done some good work, SAUDI CROWN seems a much likelier winner. While he has thrived in two-turn miles, I’m not going to hold his one-turn Hanshin last fall against him – something clearly went amiss there. Looked to me like his same pretty damned fast self in the Oaklawn comebacker. Looks in his breezes like a very large handful for these foes to handle – especially as outside-drawn speed in a race lacking real pace. Best race to best race it’s comfortably Saudi Crown over CRAZY MASON for me. Add in the tactical advantage and a recency edge, and I lean solidly toward the Crown over the Mason. MULTITASK is … fine. Someone has to finish third, right? Needs the top pair to run well below form to stand a win chance.
Eighth Race
1. Counterbalance
2. Imaginationthelady
3. Just Aloof
Can’t say that after a first run-through of this field, I gave a lot of thought to COUNTERBALANCE. Diving in, there’s quite a bit to like. She was so-so last year at 2, and I rate her on her two races this season. I found the down-the-hill SA sprint win two back much more impressive on replay than on paper. Same with the one-mile China Doll. Only four rivals in that race, but Counterbalance was caught between horses in a tight spot turning for home. She surged clear, won going away, galloped out way in front. Like the look of her works, too, and hopefully she can use that pace to get position from a tough draw. Can say that I came into the first run-through expecting to like IMAGINATIONTHELADY. I do. But, oddly, all three of her races, as well as the recent workout video, left me wanting to see just a little bit more. I might be too harsh – she has a chance to be a very nice 3yo turf horse. JUST ALOOF might be quite all right. Not the toughest field in the Jimmy Durante, but she pummeled them. Appears to be working forward. And yes, I’ve left out the favorite, SISTER TROIENNE. Maybe the rider was too passive late in her last race – he didn’t ride any harder late in her two previous starts, and she won clear. Guessing she’s on the decline after six top efforts.
Ninth Race
1. Clicquot
2. R Disaster
3. Ragtime
What if CLICQUOT did all those good things last year despite the fact she was racing in routes, rather than because of it? Given her running style, the way she finished off the two-turn starts – yeah, can easily see 7f or a one-turn mile being her thing. Wasn’t far from being “good enough” to contend in this spot last year, and figure she’s better now than before her winter break. Work video suggests as much. Was very taken with the KEE drill after she shipped north from Palm Meadows. R DISASTER should be on a four-race winning streak. Not sure what happened at the head of the homestretch in her 2025 finale, but it cost her victory. Easy comeback run in the Hurricane Bertie – potentially perfect prep for this step up. But a tussle for the lead could leave the pace horses vulnerable. While RAGTIME was fine in Kentucky last fall, I think she left her best races at Saratoga. One-run closer could get a setup, for sure. The stable’s top jockey lands on Grand Job. Wonder if Ragtime needs this first race back to some extent.
Eleventh Race
1. Great White
2. Reagan’s Honor
3. Further Ado
Perhaps GREAT WHITE is a little bit of a reach her, but I don’t think he’s a stab. Huge horse, yet nimble and quick enough to win his 6f career debut. Had some minor excuses for his second out – I look at that as a stepping-stone race, not an indictment. Traveled like a winner throughout the Battaglia. Fulleffort closed to within a neck at the finish, but no shame there – Fulleffort looked fairly legit winning the Jeff Ruby, and in any case, I feel like Great White idled after hitting the front. Past the wire, he opened back up on Fulleffort through the gallop out. But for one breeze at TP when he was preparing to race there, he’s only worked on dirt. Works well, too, from the look of things. Trainer, at least, believes he can stick with any pace. REAGAN’S HONOR’s chances could hinge on how aggressive they are with speedy Creole Chrome, who I don’t think fits here. But even if CC wants to come out running, that doesn’t preclude Reagan’s Honor winning. He set a strong pace, beating elders in the FG N1X allowance, and was definitely not looking for the wire. Seemingly ideal preparation into this, and he even trained at KEE as a young 2yo so knows the surroundings. All FURTHER ADO did in his lone KEE start was win a maiden route race by 20 lengths. Stunning margin came because he met soft competition and turned in such a strong finish. His KJC was only decent, his Tampa Bay Derby merely solid, but even if the KEE track surface flattered him last fall, he’s back on that surface again now.
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