Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Saturday, October 24 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 10.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Sassmaster (10th Race)
Tenth Race
1. Sassmaster
2. Our Moneyman
3. Preside
SASSMASTER was working in company Oct. 17 with a maiden racing on Friday’s card. I mixed the two up and thought the maiden was on the outside, Sassmaster was on the inside, and thought I was seeing a mighty maiden, indeed. Nope – was seeing another very eye-catching drill from Sassmaster. Between works and races, I thought he could win the PA Derby, and while he didn’t, he was very much in range of two horses who run back in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, The Puma and Further Ado, and that after getting a little lost / imtimidated in upper stretch. Won from off the pace, breaking from the rail two back, and will have to do so again in a pace-packed field. It’s also a very strong field – but think he’s the best of a good bunch. One might have wanted to see a little more burst from OUR MONEYMAN once he finally was extricated from compromising traffic in the PA Derby, but the trouble was significant. The second to Leading Changed in the Indy Derby has aged well, hasn’t it? He lost to the Travers winner, after all. But are we seeing signs of hanging in his recent form? PRESIDE was gaining on Sassmaster when they met at Saratoga, and might well prove his equal, but he must cope with a challenging draw in post 10.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Saturday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Cosmopolitan Lady
2. Queen McKinzie
3. Pampered
Excellent card that gets off to a not-so-rollicking start – field of eight $20K maiden-claimers. Main Mischief as the 8-5 favorite, should that come to pass, would not be for me. Missed by a head last time with similar but faced just four foes. Defining characteristic of the race – a lack of pace. COSMOPOLITAN LADY has only sprinted on dirt and was close to the lead in her turf route – predict she can make the front. Sprints not terrible – not at all by this race’s standards – and she does have the pedigree of a route horse. Huge contrast to Main Mischief in field size – she’s faced 10 or 11 rivals in every start. Squint hard enough and you might see QUEEN MCKINZIE prepping for this route try in the early-meet sprint race, and her 1 1/2-turn Ellis mile two back seems to fit the spot. She used to be able to stick closer to the lead. PAMPERED wins or comes close if the turf form transfers to dirt – I’m just far from convinced it does.
Second Race
1. Majestical
2. Trusty Troutman
3. Justified Gift
Somewhat skeptical of MAJESTICAL on the class drop, as she showed some promise last winter and cost $375K, now runs for $80K, but guess this his just where she fits. Hasn’t come closer than five lengths in her four starts against winners. Needed another break following the Aug. 2 race, which was her first out since May 30, but work pattern/times suggest a horse who can win in addition to possibly getting claimed. If she’s not leading here, she’s just off the pace. TRUSTY TROUTMAN had some speed as a 2yo – not sure where it went. Not really holding the SAR flop against her – that one-mile configuration is awkward for a lot of horses, and she just, for whatever reason, didn’t come close to running her race. Seems like the main threat to favored Majestical unless JUSTIFIED GIFT makes an easy lead and gets brave. Done early in the $200K Remington Oaks last out, but those pace figures put her on a clear lead here.
Third Race
1. Mr. Tapps
2. Commitment Fund
3. Vehlen
Was fairly high on MR. TAPPS first time out despite the challenging debut going 1 1/8 miles on dirt. Ran a winning race, too, and, frankly, the jockey just moved too early, pushing hard before the 5/16 pole into a very legitimate pace. No surprise he was tagged late by two outside closers. Doubt the cut back to 1 1/16 miles with a short homestretch does him in. Also doubt he’s as high as 6-1 here. I guess COMMITMENT FUND could be as short as even money. Not sure I quite buy that 90 Beyer from his last race; horse that beat him came back to win an N1X at BEL, but his figure dropped a few points. Had an abysmal trip first out and almost certainly was best in that sprint. Trainer C Brown didn’t stretch him all the way out to a true route in his second start – perhaps that had to do with what races were available, but perhaps there’s not certainty he’s a true route horse. The truly excellent jockey might have been slightly too passive around the turn last time – by the time he got CF rolling, it was too late. Not in love with the way he goes – and did you know that 90 Beyer’s the second-highest figure by the progeny of the sire Silver State? VEBLEN got into a very fast race last out at BEL and might have been one start away from a competitive showing.
Fourth Race
1. Alright
2. Stir
3. Sneakily
Don’t see why BALRIGHT is so much worse than the supposedly more formidable players in this middling N1X turf-route allowance, but maybe she really will be 30-1, as the line predicts. Was roughly that price when she won her debut at Ellis, and again in the CD N1X. She’s the likely early leader here coming from two sprints into a route, but I think she can stay. Omaha Beach out of a Curlin mare? Seems route-y though, to be fair, her body type does lean sprint. That said, while she held on by a nose in the debut win, she wasn’t gassed – found more on the gallop out. Not seeing any official mention of the troubled trip she had last time; broke a little flat-footed, got caught in behind and between rivals, and not only was shuffled back into the turn, she had to wait and wait to get out of her box. Once clear and leveled off in the homestretch, she finished with interest, again galloping out like a horse who could run farther. Of course there’s the chance that STIR just was a horse for Kentucky Downs, but she was impressive enough in the debut win there that I’d accord her a chance up in class and switching to a standard American racing oval. Far more upside than most here. SNEAKILY made a decent run last out at Define, who was to run Friday in the Valley View – though I’m not sold she’s truly a graded-stakes horse. Sneakily has no speed and drawn wide – hard to like at the price.
Fifth Race
1. Hard Champ
2. By La Rina
3. For My Sake
Fair guess that if HARD CHAMP runs back to her debut, a dirt sprint, she either wins or comes close, and there’s no reason to hold the KD turf flop against her. We have work video here, and it sealed the deal for me. Wouldn’t call her brilliant, but like the way she’s been going at KEE, and in the most recent drill we can see, she goes very well outside Ontario, who got up to an 87 Beyer winning an N2X allowance at Saratoga this summer, albeit on turf. BY LA RINA keeps running well enough to win and finishing second, and I’m not sure that’s changing here. Here’s what I wrote about FOR MY SAKE when she was entered for $50K on 10/14: “What are we to make of For My Sake? The trainer, based for much of her career in NorCal, is 0-16 this year and was 1-42 during 2025, and appears to have been operating a three- or four-horse stable this season: All due respect, but how does she end up with a first-time starter in a $50K MCL at KEE? Moreover, one that has done most of her prep work at the Aiken training center in S. Carolina – long time ago, we used to see Aiken-based 2yos debuting at KEE in April – haven’t seen a KY horse with Aiken works in quite some time. The two owners have never had a horse with the trainer, nor, from what I can find, owned a horse in partnership. For My Sake, a mere $5K purchase, shipped into the CDT and worked a swift half-mile from the gate on Sept. 26. Interesting.” Was scratched from that $50K claimer to run for $100K – also interesting.
Sixth Race
1. Just for Pipa
2. Booked
3. Grand Yaupon
Churchill has a big 2yo card on Sunday, and that might have hurt the Bowman Mill – five-horse field includes a Florida shipper and a first-time starter from relatively obscure connections. JUST FOR PIPA was 19-1 in his debut and not only won, but had something left at the finish, judging by the spirited gallop out. Feels like a horse who could quietly improve second out while generally disregarded in the win pool. BOOKED just has too much early-season precocity followed by form stagnation for me to accept the short price. Granted, he could easily win at a short price, and I’d favor him over stablemate GRAND YAUPON, whose speed figure at Remington seems plumped up. Rail-drawn CONVICTION has plenty of speed. $800K 2yo purchase this spring debuted in August at Gulfstream? What gives?
Seventh Race
1. Quartz Mountain
2. French Sand
3. Joyful Flight
QUARTZ MOUNTAIN was 13-10 debuting against 10 foes in a SAR turf sprint MSW – “they” liked her. Speed and fade there, speed and fade second time out, and now the switch to dirt. Searched trainer W Ward with turf-to-dirt 2yos in maiden sprint races, and over the last five years, he’s 7-6-1-0 with that move, and the one horse that didn’t win lost by a nose. Strong! Notice that J Ortiz named on both Quartz Mountain, who’s stuck on the AE list, and FRENCH SAND, who is not. Was only grudgingly that I switched from French Sand on top to Quartz Mountain, because French Sand’s two work videos were very encouraging. Both were from the gate, and she breaks like a rocket. Sept. 16 she might have gone too fast too soon, and appeared to get a little weary at the end of her gallop-out. Oct. 7, she was very intentionally reined in after coming into the homestretch – she briefly resisted but quickly relented. Looked like the filly had learned lessons since the 9/16 breeze – and grown up physically, too. No work video for first-timer JOYFUL FLIGHT, but the Flightline filly has been breezing fast and consistently at the training center on Lexington’s far north side.
Eighth Race
1. Tumbarumba
2. Hit Show
3. San Siro
TUMBARUMBA finished third in the $20 million Saudi Cup – that’s an accomplishment! Did well in that one-turn 1 1/8-mile contest, but the real surprise to people like me who had him pegged as a miler at heart was the Al Maktoum Challenge the race before Saudi – 1 3/16 miles around two turns was supposed to be too far for this horse, but he stayed on very well against a sharp winner – and all this after leaving the life he’d long known in America to join a new trainer under far different circumstances in Dubai. Look back before he left and find two wins followed a strong fourth in the BC Dirt Mile – are we just looking at a really late bloomer? Sadly, no work video from Churchill, but the pattern is perfect, the drills very fast, and he’s gotten all the way out to six furlongs. Can he do the nine furlongs in his first start since March 28? The price should be right to find out. HIT SHOW actually didn’t run that bad in the Pacific Classic – that pace just crushed anyone who was near it save victorious Knightsbridge. Hit Show moved solidly around the far turn and remained in hailing distance of the leader at the three-sixteenths pole before running out of gas. But seventh-place Forged Steel, who had a somewhat similar trip and finished second, came back to win the G1 Goodwood. Hit Show’s the two-time defending Fayette champ and 3-3 at KEE. Only recent work video was a nothing half mile in early September. Guessing he still has hit. Seeing a lot of early and middle pace here, and the race has fall-apart potential, which SAN SIRO needs. Wanted to believe he’s hit a new level this fall, and he did work well at KEE for this, but not sure he’s really a different horse than the longer-term form says.
Ninth Race
1. McCready
2. Remember Mamba
3. Bottas
Digging deep with MCCREADY here but know this horse very well, and think he might be capable of making a dent at a long price. And to me, there’s no one really to fear in the race. REMEMBER MAMBA is blinkers on (no recent work video) but from Day 1 seemed like a horse who needed nine furlongs or farther to hit peak form. His development flattened out over the summer, but I do expect him to return sharp and ready. BOTTAS is more a true miler than Remember Mamba, but comes to this after the two best races of his career, and got a setup in both of them. Mildly skeptical? As for McCready, he had a bad trip when Remember Mamba beat him at Fair Grounds over the winter and a far worse trip in the Black Gold – he really might have been best in that race. Took all kinds of betting at KEE in the spring, and made the money stand up, if only barely, but A) don’t think he wants to lead, and B) not sure he wants to run as far as 1 3/16 miles. The off-turf Delaware win June 27 actually was a good showing, and the horse didn’t come close to approaching his best form last out at SAR. Quite the encouraging work pattern.
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