Week 8 College Football Power Ratings and Projections for Every Game

Week 8 College Football Power Ratings

Some college football seasons challenge you more than others. The sheer inconsistency of so many teams has made it very difficult to feel like I’ve had a proper power rating on the majority of the nation’s programs. That’s not because of a lack of effort or sticking strictly to my longstanding process. It’s because there is a lot of parity, but also because these teams are just more volatile than ever with so many new faces on the field and on the sideline.

I’ve spent a few weeks questioning the usefulness of setting my own lines. It is nice to have a guide to refer to when looking at games early in the week. But, I do find myself handicapping games more qualitatively than quantitatively, in the sense that I’m making fewer wagers on Sunday and Monday. Injury information has something to do with that, but really it’s just about taking time to let the results sink in and take a deeper dive into the X’s and O’s of the matchup.

I do think there’s still value in the sense that adjusting my numbers and analyzing what happened over the weekend does keep me from overreacting too much one way or the other, which is important because teams can look so wildly different from week to week. I don’t want to get into the bad habit of letting one data point mean too much and set me down the wrong path. Also, singular data points may mean more now than ever before. It’s an internal monologue I have every week and think about when writing this article, making team updates, and forming my initial opinions.

This past weekend also showed us a lot. Georgia beat Alabama and then lost to Auburn as a three-score favorite. Ohio State survived against Indiana, but it was another week in which that loss to Texas looked worse. Notre Dame got tested for the first time and failed. Mario Cristobal nearly pulled a Mario Cristobal against Florida State. Remember when Missouri stomped Florida? Then Florida won in Austin and Missouri got blasted by Ole Miss, a team Florida beat by 24. So, yeah, things are all over the map and I can’t help but wonder if this is our new normal.

Week 8 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Georgia	93.5	2.5
2	Notre Dame	92	3.5
3	Miami (Florida)	89.5	3
4	Ohio State	89	3.5
5	Indiana	87.5	3.5
6	Alabama	86.5	3.5
7	Mississippi	86.5	3.5
8	LSU	86	3
9	Texas	86	3.5
10	Florida	85	2
11	Oregon	83.5	3.5
12	Tennessee	81.5	2.5
13	Utah	81.5	2.5
14	Missouri	81	3.5
15	Wake Forest	80.5	2
16	Oklahoma	80	3
17	Texas Tech	80	3.5
18	Houston	79.5	2
19	Nebraska	79	2
20	USC	79	3
21	Auburn	78.5	2
22	SMU	78.5	3.5
23	Kentucky	78	2
24	BYU	77.5	3.5
25	Oklahoma State	77.5	2
26	Iowa	76.5	3.5
27	Texas A&M	76.5	2
28	UCLA	76.5	1.5
29	Northwestern	76	1.5
30	South Carolina	76	2.5
31	Louisville	75.5	3.5
32	Arizona	74.5	3
33	Michigan	74.5	2.5
34	Florida State	74	2.5
35	Virginia Tech	73.5	2
36	Boise State	73	3.5
37	Baylor	72.5	1.5
38	Mississippi State	72.5	2
39	Wisconsin	72.5	2
40	Duke	72	2.5
41	Penn State	71.5	2.5
42	TCU	71.5	2.5
43	Kansas State	71	3
44	Minnesota	70.5	2.5
45	North Carolina	70.5	2
46	North Carolina State	70.5	2.5
47	Washington	70.5	3.5
48	Clemson	69.5	2.5
49	Virginia	69.5	2
50	Kansas	68.5	2.5
51	Oregon State	68.5	3.5
52	Illinois	68	2.5
53	Iowa State	67.5	2.5
54	Arizona State	67	2
55	Arkansas	67	1.5
56	Cincinnati	67	1.5
57	James Madison	67	3.5
58	North Dakota State	67	3.5
59	Purdue	67	1
60	UCF	67	2
61	Vanderbilt	67	2.5
62	New Mexico	66.5	2
63	Pittsburgh	66.5	2.5
64	Colorado	66	2.5
65	Georgia Tech	66	2
66	Michigan State	66	1.5
67	West Virginia	66	2
68	Memphis	65.5	2.5
69	Liberty	65	2.5
70	North Texas	64.5	2.5
71	Boston College	63.5	2
72	California	63.5	2
73	Texas State	63.5	2
74	Fresno State	63	2
75	Navy	62.5	2.5
76	UTSA	62.5	3.5
77	Maryland	61.5	2
78	Rutgers	61.5	2
79	Army	61	2.5
80	UNLV	61	2.5
81	Syracuse	60.5	2.5
82	Tulsa	60.5	1
83	Air Force	60	2
84	Louisiana-Lafayette	60	2
85	Tulane	59.5	2.5
86	Washington State	59.5	3
87	Florida Atlantic	59	1.5
88	South Florida	59	3
89	East Carolina	58.5	2
90	Louisiana Tech	58.5	2
91	Toledo	58.5	3.5
92	Connecticut	58	3
93	Georgia Southern	58	3.5
94	Georgia State	58	1
95	South Alabama	58	2
96	Stanford	57.5	1.5
97	Western Michigan	57.5	3.5
98	Florida International	57	2
99	Nevada	56.5	1
100	Utah State	56.5	3
101	Troy	56	3
102	Jacksonville State	55.5	3.5
103	San Diego State	55	2
104	Temple	55	2
105	Appalachian State	54	2
106	Arkansas State	54	2.5
107	UAB	54	2.5
108	Old Dominion	53.5	1.5
109	Marshall	53	3.5
110	Ohio	53	3.5
111	Middle Tennessee	52	1.5
112	Rice	52	3
113	Wyoming	51.5	2
114	Coastal Carolina	51	2
115	San Jose State	51	2.5
116	Delaware	50.5	1
117	Kennesaw State	50.5	2.5
118	New Mexico State	50.5	2.5
119	Hawai’i	50	3
120	Western Kentucky	49	3
121	Colorado State	48.5	2
122	Miami (Ohio)	48	3.5
123	Eastern Michigan	47.5	2.5
124	Central Michigan	47	3
125	Buffalo	46	2
126	Missouri State	46	2
127	Southern Mississippi	45.5	2
128	Sam Houston State	45	2
129	Northern Illinois	43	1.5
130	Kent State	42.5	1
131	Massachusetts	41.5	1
132	Ball State	40.5	3
133	Bowling Green	40.5	2
134	Charlotte	40.5	1
135	UTEP	40	1
136	Akron	38.5	2
137	Louisiana-Monroe	38.5	2
138	Sacramento State	28.5	2

Week 8 PR Adjustments

Up: FIU +2, Western Kentucky +2.5, Georgia Southern +2, Texas State +1.5, Tulane +1.5, Charlotte +1.5, Michigan State +2.5, Army +2.5, Florida State +2.5, Boston College +2.5, Oklahoma State +1.5, Navy +3.5, Louisiana +3, West Virginia +1, TCU +1.5, Texas Tech +2.5, Colorado +2.5, Tennessee +2, Kentucky +1.5, Arkansas +1.5, SMU +3, Tulsa +3, Air Force +3, Middle Tennessee +1.5, Coastal Carolina +1, Houston +1, Ball State +1.5, James Madison +2, Washington State +3.5, Ohio +3.5, South Alabama +2.5, Iowa +1.5, Mississippi +1.5

Down: Jacksonville State -1, Delaware -2.5, Kennesaw State -1.5, Sam Houston State -5.5, Colorado State -4, Memphis -2.5, Purdue -3.5, Temple -3, Ohio State -4 (Sayin inj.), Indiana -1.5, Northwestern -1.5, Maryland -2.5, Pitt -1.5, Kent State -1.5, UMass -1.5, UTSA -1.5, Cincinnati -1, Baylor -1.5, Arizona State -3.5, Notre Dame -2.5, UCLA -3, Wisconsin -1.5, Oregon -1, Alabama -2, Vanderbilt -3, Sacramento State -3, Mississippi State -6 (Taylor, other inj.), UNLV -2, App State -1, Utah -1.5, Virginia -3, Kansas -2.5, Bowling Green -2, Northern Illinois -1.5, Stanford -2.5, UL Monroe -2, Nebraska -1.5, Miami (FL) -1.5, Texas -2

Washington State +3.5: Owen Eshelman injected a lot of life into the Wazzu offense in the loss to Oregon State. I think he’s an enormous upgrade, especially as a dual-threat guy

Navy +3.5: We saw a cameo appearance for Braxton Woodson, but I really like where this team is at with Jackson Gutierrez at the helm

Ohio +3.5: Now that they’ve settled on a starting QB with Nick Poulos, we’re seeing Ohio do what they usually do in the MAC

Mississippi State -6: Something of an adjustment, as the Bulldogs have tailed off, but a lot of that can be attributed to the injuries for Kamario Taylor and Fluff Bothwell

Sam Houston -5.5: I fell for what I thought were some clear improvements from the Bearkats at the outset of the series. I was way off. I knew Sam Houston started with a ‘S’, though. But, they deserved a huge downgrade after I had them comfortably favored against Western Kentucky and they mustered just three points

Ohio State -4: The Buckeyes are on a bye this week, so we won’t see what the loss of Julian Sayin really means until Halloween against USC, but it surely looks to mean something

Colorado State -4: Jim Mora Jr. fired the DC and it didn’t make an ounce of difference

Arizona State -3.5: I try to give good head coaches like Kenny Dillingham more runway to improve than others; this team hasn’t improved

Purdue -3.5: The Boilermakers have all sorts of problems. Ryan Browne is okay. The rest of the team not so much

My Week 8 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away	Home	Line
10/20	Middle Tennessee	FIU	-7
	Missouri State	Delaware	-5.5
	South Alabama	Marshall	+1.5
10/21	New Mexico State	Sam Houston	+3.5
10/22	James Madison	App State	+11
	Liberty	Kennesaw State	+12
	East Carolina	Memphis	-9.5
10/23	UMass	UConn	-19.5
	Duke	Virginia	+0.5
	Army	Tulsa	-0.5
	Air Force	Wyoming	+6.5
	NC State	Stanford	+11.5
10/24	West Virginia	TCU	-8
	Boston College	Georgia Tech	-4.5
	Rice	Florida Atlantic	-8.5
	Syracuse	North Carolina	-12
	Sacramento State	Ball State	-15
	Indiana	Michigan	+10.5
	Western Michigan	Toledo	-4.5
	Pitt	Miami (FL)	-26
	Texas Tech	Cincinnati	+11.5
	Miami (OH)	Central Michigan	-2
	Akron	Kent State	-5
	Eastern Michigan	Ohio	-9
	BYU	UCF	+8.5
	Bowling Green	Buffalo	-7.5
	Tennessee	South Carolina	+3
	Rutgers	Northwestern	-16
	UL Monroe	Troy	-20.5
	Georgia State	Arkansas State	+1.5
	USC	Wisconsin	+4.5
	Baylor	Kansas	+1.5
	Virginia Tech	Clemson	+1.5
	UTSA	Tulane	+0.5
	Hawaii	Northern Illinois	+5.5
	Louisiana	Southern Miss	+12.5
	LSU	Auburn	+5.5
	Iowa	Minnesota	+3.5
	Oregon	Illinois	+13
	Colorado	Oklahoma State	-13.5
	Houston	Utah	-4.5
	San Jose State	Nevada	-6.5
	Michigan State	UCLA	-12
	Kansas State	Arizona State	+2
	Iowa State	Arizona	-10
	Ole Miss	Texas	-3
	Oklahoma	Mississippi State (w/o Taylor)	+5.5
	North Texas	Navy	-0.5
	Cal	SMU	-18.5
	Old Dominion	LA Tech	-7
	Texas A&M	Alabama	-13.5
	Vanderbilt	Kentucky	-13
	Boise State	Washington State	+10.5
	San Diego State	Colorado State	+4.5
	Utah State	Texas State	-9
	North Dakota State	New Mexico	-1.5

Games to consider:

NC State -7 (-11.5) at Stanford: Long trek for NC State, but they are off a bye. Stanford beat Elon 34-7, but the Phoenix rushed for 220 yards and 6.5 yards per carry.

Indiana -7 (-10.5) at Michigan: Status of Josh Hoover (who wasn’t good against Ohio State) matters here; I think Indiana can score, don’t think Michigan can.

Buffalo -4 (-7.5) vs. Bowling Green: Pete Lembo’s a good head coach; I don’t think Eddie George is. I think the Bulls are getting better. BG is not.

Virginia Tech +2.5 (-1.5) at Clemson: Show me something, Dabo. For that matter, show me something, Big Game James.

Auburn +9 (+5.5) vs. LSU: Tigers were a little bit of a wrong-side winner per the box score, while LSU trounced a severely shorthanded Mississippi State team; I like Auburn and Alex Golesh a lot

Minnesota +6.5 (+3.5) vs. Iowa: Row that boat, PJ!

North Dakota State +4.5 (+1.5) vs. New Mexico: The Lobos have a great defense, but that offense is abysmal.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.