Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Saturday, October 23racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 8.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Lush Lips (8th race)
Eighth Race
1. Lush Lips
2. Expensive Queen
3. Mandanaba
LUSH LIPS emerged last year as North America’s leading 3yo middle-distance turf horse. She flashed home a very impressive winner in the Honey Fox this past February, a mere prep for the Jenny Wiley at Keeneland, and was set to go off favored in that race before coming up with an injury. Reportedly nothing especially serious, and LL never left the track, but it took forever to come right. Even before the Ellis comeback run, connections had this race, then the BC Filly and Mare Turf in mind. You’d want an easy first start back to build into the second and third races of the cycle – and it looks like they just left the filly underdone. I assure you – Lush Lips is a far, far better horse than anyone else in that Ellis race. She dawdled along on an easy lead, cruised into the homestretch while opening up — and completely ran out of gas. I 100-percent believe the trainer saying that defeat woke Lush Lips up. She’s apparently trained with great verve since the Ellis race, and I expect her to pick up here where she left off this past winter. Fair to mention that the listed 8-1 odds seem like a pipe dream. Lush Lips at the time of the Jenny Wiley was the superior horse to her stablemate EXPENSIVE QUEEN – and Expensive Queen went out and dead-heated for win with Segesta. EQ was the best horse in the race – Segesta got a great bob and would have lost in another half-stride. And then E Queen got hurt and went out of training. She’s an exciting horse, still with upside, and the barn believes she, unlike Lush Lips, won’t need a race. MANDANABA made a little mistake, jumping something on the SAR course, that might have cost her the Just A Game in June. Classic Q, at her peak, won that race, but I’d take top form Lush Lips and Expensive Queen over top form Classic Q. Freshened, Mandanaba returned to action Sept. 6 and lost to an unaccomplished German rival in what, presumably, was a prep for this.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other ten races on Saturday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Mayfield
2. Unlimited
3. Alworth
MAYFIELD took betting action but didn’t have much of a trip debuting Aug. 16 at Ellis, where, frankly, he showed little in the end. Back to the drawing board. Gotten in five drills since that debut, and those on video show a horse ready to show why he was 2-1 in his first start. Expect major improvement. UNLIMITED has been training at Ellis Park, where we get no workout video. The breeze pattern and workout times, though – very, very suggestive. ALWORTH had a bad trip in his debut and lone start, and ran into a very sharp B Baffert-trained winner who earned a 95 Beyer in a blowout victory.
Second Race
1. Chancery
2. Dormie
3. Never Sleep
Can’t find replay of CHANCERY’s sharp winning debut because there was a mid-race injury there – but suffice it to say he won quite well. The old-school trainer eschews a stakes jump and takes advantage of a relatively rare early-autumn 2yo first-level allowance. One post-race work video is available – and it suggests he wins at a short price. DORMIE’s debut score over four foes at poor Hawthorne is whatever, but he showed last out at Prairie that he can stalk the pace and finish decently – which should be the right trip in this pace-packed short field. NEVER SLEEP no doubt was sharp, winning his lone dirt start among three races, but he seems to be all speed and might not be quick enough to clear pace rivals here.
Third Race
1. Episist
2. Miss Pharaoh
3. Tulip
EPISIST really didn’t get much of a run from a wide draw making her turf debut three back at Ellis, and after the end of that 1 1/16-mile race, she galloped out like a horse looking for more ground – which she was. Didn’t quite get the 12 furlongs two back, but also might not have been quite as fully formed that race as she was eight days later, blasting home a sharp 9 1/2-furlong maiden winner. Two key questions: Is she just a Kentucky Downs horse? And after two strong races over such a short span, can she hold that form? My guesses are yes and yes. MISS PHARAOH came back this year a meaningfully better horse than she was in 2025. Won fresh racing 9f over the KEE course, got rained off second start, and third race of her cycle she ran into Amberglen, who came right back and blitzed Saratoga graded-stakes foes. Not as good last out at Kentucky Downs – but then Kentucky Downs is its own little world, and that run should have her spot on for the return to KEE. TULIP I guess merits her 3-1 favoritism off the near miss this level last out at SAR – but I’m not quite sold when factoring in the lowish price and a bad draw.
Fourth Race
1. Autodrive
2. Floodlites
3. Lips Say Bliss
AUTODRIVE almost certainly “needed” his August long-layoff comeback race, and while well-beaten, he showed enough there to suggest he’s at least the same horse we saw in the spring. Turf experiment failed in April, and in the start before he ran into Built and Maximum Bourbon, both at least minor players in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. At the listed odds, I’d take him all day and every day over morning-line favorite FLOODLITES. That horse has won three of four – an $80K N2L claimer, a soft AQU N1X, and a KEE N2X where his four rivals included his stable-mate, who finished second. He’s got two races out of 11 that merit a short price – and not sure that either of those even tells a true tale. LIPS SAY BLISS only turned back to sprints four races ago. He ran two big ones right off the bat – performances that fit this spot – then was off Lasix the final start of his last form cycle, and tried turf (no good) last out in his comeback race. He’s worth using at the expected price.
Fifth Race
1. Stowaway
2. Who Dey
3. Render Judgment
Yeah – no. Honestly, I have no clue in this race. But I don’t have the option of passing. Funny – lone recent work video up for STOWAWAY is not very good at all. I’m still taking him, even though he’s on a losing streak dating to May 2024. Do know he stays, he’s run well over the track, I don’t mind him coming into this fresh, and he should be a fair price. WHO DEY drawn way outside, which is not great, and I still, to this day, wonder if he’s not best suited to something like a one-turn mile. Ran quite well at KEE as an early 3yo in the 7f Lafayette. And don’t hold that 1-10 Ohio-bred loss too much against him – that horse Fair and Square is a 10f specialist who has always given Who Dey problems. I trust him more than most here to hit his baseline. I just can’t tout RENDER JUDGMENT to win at something like 3-1. To me, he has zero upside, and his baseline kind of makes him just one of many plausible winners here. On the figures, he ran a career-best last out at SAR – and probably can’t do any better than that.
Sixth Race
1. Doncho
2. Joe Shiesty
3. Okiro
The only hesitation with DONCHO – his two races over the KEE grass course. Both were well off his best, but if they can be excused – and I think they can – he’s a great chance to win this. Know there was a particular excuse for the most recent KEE try – he tore a muscle coming awkwardly out of the gate and needed plenty of time to recover. This horse has shown speed and talent from the start, first on dirt. He once was a one-way speed horse but has become progressively versatile and will be happy sitting just off JOE SHIESTY on a moderate pace. Not much of a trip last out at SAR. Reported has trained for this with real verve. JOE SHIESTY took a comfortable early lead last out at Ellis and made the most of it – though he can finish decently off a faster pace, too. Likes KEE, is fresh, and should set the pace, but Doncho has the upside at a better price. With a more favorable trip, OKIRO would have finished heads up with Joe Shiesty in the Ellis race in August. He’s susceptible to bad luck since he has no speed – a one-run closing sprinter. Don’t know what moved him up this year, but since he got good, he’s been very good, and if I thought there was sufficient pace entered here I’d have taken him for the upset.
Seventh Race
1. Echo Sound
2. Zeitlos
3. Eclatant
I think ECHO SOUND is better at 6f than 7f, the distance she ran last out in the G1 Ballerina, and that was a good fourth – just 1 1/2 lengths out of second – in a race dominated by star sprinter Ways and Means (who’ll win the BC Filly and Mare Sprint), and in which she had a tough trip. Made a minor bid for the lead from an inside draw, didn’t get there, got stuck in behind and eventually had to make her way off the rail and come around as Ways and Means began looming outside her. Held pretty tough to the furlong grounds and kept on well to the finish. She’s got a better post here in a relatively paceless race and stands a strong chance of winning, though I’d guess she’s a lower price than the published odds. ZEITLOS likes KEE and had a real excuse in this race a year ago. She’s fine on turf but in the end probably better on dirt, and the surface switch should stand her in good stead. The drawback: she needs more pace than she’s going to get. Almost left ECLATANT out of the top three. She had two very fast races in the winter and spring, including the G1 at KEE, but really struggled, I thought, in the Churchill win and was simply dismal last out in the Ballerina. I’d bet against a bounce-back if she’s the short price the morning line forecasts.
Ninth Race
1. Q B Rocket
2. Coach Pope
3. American History
Can see why Q B ROCKET went off 6-5 in his lone start, Saratoga MSW on 8/15, when you see his work video from 8/1 at CD. Went with National Forest, a good second at Ellis in his debut and favored to win a KEE MSW on Friday – all due respect, but Q B Rocket was in a different league from him that day. Easy, easy debut win – and while he showed a lot of speed, the horse looks nothing like a run-off. Excellent gallop-out (looked intentional, as though they already were looking at the stretch to two turns), and (no video, alas) the work pattern post-race has no flaws. I give him a solid chance to take down favored COACH POPE. That horse was second in the maiden race of all maiden races at SAR – I exaggerate for effect, but the winner was very smart, the third horse a monster second-out maiden winner at Saratoga. Second out, in the CD one-turn mile, Coach Pope sat on the fence just off the lead, slipped between horses at the 3/8 with a dazzling move, and a-i-r-e-d. My concern – he’s done a lot already in two starts and probably has less upside on the day than Q B Rocket. That’s a position I take in great part because CP’s a short-priced favorite. Not much of a speed figure for AMERICAN HISTORY’s debut score, but I can’t fault it. Smooth traveler finished with great energy and galloped out with aplomb. Maybe the speed figure underrates him.
Tenth Race
1. Rhetorical
2. Zulu Kingdom
3. Lake Forest
RHETORICAL, already having won this race a year ago and finished quite a solid fourth in the BC Mile, really popped when allowed to lead in the Turf Classic at CD in May. Was that a breakthrough race? Looks like no – but he started fighting a foot problem shortly thereafter that got him, well, wrong-footed. Acted up badly before the 4stardave, the trainer said. Recent work video – a turf horse breezing on turf, has looked pretty spectacular. Guess I’d like to see him just take the lead from ZULU KINGDOM and let the chips fall where they may. Would say Zulu Kingdom hasn’t quite followed up on his Maker’s Mark Mile comeback win in April the way one might’ve hoped. Rhetorical in any case had a claustrophobic trip in that race, Notable Speech a brutal one. I don’t quite see him as a BC Mile horse – but he can be a Turf Mile horse for sure. LAKE FOREST’s claim to fame is winning a $10 million (Aussie dollars) 7 1/2f race as a 3yo. He has done some good things in Europe, too – but not enough to make me feel confident. Was life and death to hold a distant second behind Notable Speech last out at York. Has no speed and is a bit of a tricky ride.
Eleventh Race
1. Right in Time
2. Niosa
3. Life On Marz
If I have the right horse in work videos, and there’s a little question about that, RIGHT IN TIME can really run. Supposedly three works up for her, all strong, the most recent, 9/25 from gate, especially powerful. She looks physically advanced, travels very strongly, seems professional enough. NIOSA has been based at KEE since she started breezing – she’s not the physical specimen Right In Time appears to be, but her works appear to have gotten better and better. Rail draw obviously a challenge for 2yo firster in full field. LIFE ON MARZ has worked (on video) like she is very much ready for her debut. Most recent team drill featured a very long and encouraging gallop-out.
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