Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Thursday, April 23 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Episodic (6th race)
Sixth Race
1. Episodic
2. In Scope
3. Ruby Regent
You know who really loves winning races at Keeneland? Juddmonte Farms is who. The Juddmonte homebred first-timer EPISODIC has been working much of the winter toward her debut – believe me, she is ready. Not just ready, either, but a runner. Very taken with her work video. I think if she breaks, she wins. IN SCOPE also has looked quite good on the work video, but I doubt she’s quite as far along as Episodic, and where E appears to have the body type of a 6-8 furlong horse, In Scope has more, well, scope. RUBY REGENT to me doesn’t have anything like a synthetic-slanting pedigree, and don’t see why she can’t carry her fine Tapeta debut form over to dirt.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other eight races on Thursday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Colt Forty Seven 2. Gethsemane 3. Politics
COLT FORTY SEVEN’s last win, by four lengths, came at this same age-restricted $50K claiming class. Twas a one-turn race and this is two, but think he can stay the short-stretch 1 1/16 miles. Somewhat dull last time (though even that speed figure fits all right here), but was back on less than three weeks’ rest after a 100-1 participant in the Risen Star. Three back he ran into the sharp T Pletcher-trained Florida shipper Jackson Hole, who wired that allowance / opt claimer. Now freshened up, and though no video, those were lively CD drills. GETHSEMANE ran well enough in the OP maiden win and the last out N1X start at KEE that one wonders about the somewhat quick drop in for a $50K tag. Was surprised how close to the pace he stuck last out – and had no finish. Looks like an odds-on favorite that I don’t quite trust. POLITICS has made one start on a fast dirt track, and he won it. That was restricted MSW competition, which means he could do in a $50K 3yo claimer. Tough race, though, and I’m not ruling out anyone.
Second Race
1. Randie’s Rascal
2. Through the Years
3. Tolstoy
RANDIE’S RASCAL is bred top and bottom to be a grass horse, and very likely is, which is why she debuts in this turf sprint, though it means facing males. But this filly works really well on dirt, too, and does it consistently. Handled stablemate Joe Joe Dude in their team drill. She’s been sharp out of the gate and travels professionally – really like her here. THROUGH THE YEARS also clearly bred to be a grass horse, and that should be considered when looking at her dirt works, but, to me, RR has turned in the more impressive breezes. We have zero work video for TOLSTOY, which means it’s back to the bad old days of merely guessing off sire, dam, and a series of numbers on the paper.
Third Race
1. Turkish Pistachio
2. Alta Avenue
3. Traject
Don’t know why TURKISH PISTACHIO – aside from a poor beginning – ran so poorly last out. Don’t know why she ran poorly two back. But do know that if she gets back to her form three races ago, she can win this. Two fast half-mile works since her race – the one at KEE is on video. She goes solo and is asked, but really scooted along. The 6.5f would seem to suit. While she won on the lead, four races ago she stalked and passed rivals late – that’s the trip she probably needs in this pace-packed field. ALTA AVENUE closed to win at this distance over TP Tapeta two back. In a vacuum, she’d be just a fringe contender, but the race – on paper, at least – seems to shape in her favor. TRAJECT ran poorly two back, but can forgive the last out dud as she broke slowly from the rail, facing 10 over a sloppy track. Her win was good enough to contend here, but she did it on the front end, and that might be the wrong place in this heat.
Fourth Race
1. Cerberus
2. Kokomo Joe
3. Neigh Baby
CERBERUS broke slowly, got caught very wide on the turn – a recipe for losing at Gulfstream. The top two finishers in his debut – lone start – got away from the others, but Cerberus actually finished with decent energy, galloped out okay (from the little bit we could see). There’s Gulfstream work video from March 1. He worked with the S Joseph-trained Miami Frank – and outworked him, too – who on 3/29 won a GP N1X allowance with an 84 Beyer. This horse is set to improve second out with an added furlong and a longer homestretch. Still was a close call between C and KOKOMO JOE, who ran well enough in his debut over TP Tapeta and has shown spark in subsequent local works. NEIGH BABY travels all the way from NY for this $85K restricted maiden purse – will his case of second-itis travel with him? I couldn’t take a short price on this horse, and he’s likely to be quite a short price.
Fifth Race
1. Soleil Volant
2. Talbingo
3. Clyde’s Got a Gun
Test Score, according to his trainer, is far from the most brilliant workhorse, but he is a G1-level grass performer who will be one of the favorites in the G1 Turf Classic on Derby Day. SOLEIL VOLANT has been his regular workmate, and if you were going just off works, you might say it’s SV who’s the better horse! The trainer also was asked if SV always had breezed as well as he has into his 4yo debut – he has not. He’s a horse who just needed time to find himself. He did so at the end of last season, and I expect him to carry that forward into his 4yo debut. I’d expect the horse to be somewhat sharp after the winter break, and hoping he breaks alertly in a paceless race and can keep main rival TALBINGO in his sights. Talbingo oddly far back last time since he has plenty of positional pace, and even with a tough trip, he almost won again – the horse is a win machine. His trainer strongly believes the farther this horse runs, the better he’s going to get. CLYDE’S GOT A GUN gets the trip for sure, and has been fast enough in the past to contend, but he – like Daunt – often makes a run that falls short of victory. And unlike the 4yos I have on top, they are who they are at this stage.
Seventh Race
1. Etawa
2. Tricky Kitty
3. Worry Be Gone
Granted, it took ETAWA six tries to win an overseas maiden race, and she never rose very high in the ratings, but already showed she comfortably stays a Euro 1 1/4 miles, and a US 1 1/2 ought to be just as suitable. Away slowly when rained off turf and onto Tapeta in American debut; not a clean trip there, either, but she was finishing fastest and went out very well around the club turn. She’s set to improve – and win. TRICKY KITTY hasn’t raced beyond 1 1/16 miles on turf, but closed well and nearly cleared this condition two back going 1 1/4 miles on Turfway Tapeta. The March 27 TP start has the feeling of a prep for this try. Worked back twice. Lacks speed and tends to find trouble. WORRY BE GONE went from wiring the field two back in her maiden win to closing from 10th last out in N1X company. She’s got some ability – and now gets her first look on turf. Would be no surprise.
Eighth Race
1. Poise
2. Beach Mandy
3. Toocoolforschool
Homebred POISE was withdrawn from an auction and instead races for owner-breeder P Blum. Her coat, at least, looks eerily like her sister, Society, a crack sprinter-miler also trained by S Asmussen. Got onto a good work pattern at Fair Grounds, then got more serious after coming to Kentucky. Two work videos – very encouraging. Good outside draw for this distance. She figures to take plenty of action. BEACH MANDY, on the other hand, drew poorly on the rail for her debut – can’t make first-timer mistakes from there and win. Local work video for her gets more and more impressive as the debut approaches. TOOCOOLFORSCHOOL also has breezed encouragingly at Keeneland. Hasn’t minded at all being stuck down inside and put to some pressure.
Ninth Race
1. Peachy Canyon
2. Whitethorn
3. Mary Lois
Interesting pattern for PEACHY CANYON, who debuted Dec. 10 at Dundalk on the winter all-weather circuit overseas and shortly afterrward, wound up in America. The Gulfstream race looks even better on replay than in person. The rider basically just sat on the filly past the 3f marker, and without even being assertively asked, she quickly closed ground from far back. Diving to the inside almost never works at the end of a long run like she was making, but PC still finished strongly and galloped out in front – before the rider put on the brakes early on the club turn. Saw a lot of talent there, and the expected odds will make the bad post position easier to accept. WHITETHORN was getting a good ground-saving stalking trip in her most recent grass race – until she wasn’t. They moved en masse going into the far turn, and she got the shuffle, then stuck in traffic off the bend and into the homestretch. Was finishing best at one mile and looks a solid prospect to get this 1 1/8-mile distance. Just the one grass try. Has the pace to stick close. Nothing wrong with MARY LOIS, either. She had to wait a bit to make her run, and then it took her a good bit to kick in, but after doing so before the furlong grounds, she finished fast, galloped out well in front. The 9f should suit. She raced 12/27 and has breezed steadily ever since without racing, making this spot look like the long-range goal.
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