Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Thursday, October 8 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Bet the Gray (6th race)
Sixth Race
1. Bet the Gray
2. Miss Elle
3. Bourbon Notes
BET THE GRAY last raced in Audubon Oaks, won by Conceit, who came back to defeat the excellent Explora in the G3 Dogwood, and two back, Bet the Gray ran into Twirling Aces, who was favored to win the Audubon Oaks. Made her first start this year in January, but now comes in fresh after a two-month respite. Class drop and cut back to 6f put her where she needs to be, and bet she offers value. MISS ELLE won well in her only KEE start, and dollars to donuts the last race served as much as anything as a prep for the return to KEE. A little odd that Miss Elle’s rider last time lands on BOURBON NOTES, though, yeah, sure, trainer M Maker wins gobs of races. Bourbon Notes came to life with the turf-to-dirt move two back, then immediately went back to turf. Like the surface switch but wonder if she has enough gas to make the lead from the rail, and if she doesn’t, how she’ll handle the trip in behind.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Thursday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Detention
2. Vissino
3. Slickback
I know the barn liked DETENTION when they sent him to Colonial to debut – guess Detention did not like Colonial. I’ve already forgotten that race, because his second out not only yielded a win, and not only was that an above-par win for the class level, this horse made quite a favorable impression. To the front from the rail and on to a second straight score – maybe. Because VISSINO has a solid chance of his own. Kentucky Downs was a no-go, but both of his first two races, on Saratoga dirt, were quite good. My guess is he doesn’t quite get all the way back to that, while I see Detention as a potential improver. The SLICKBACK work video comes from back in July – and it’d be good to see something more recent since how he goes on dirt is the main question now after a debut win over SAR turf. Judging from that stale video, I’d say he’s a definite maybe to surface switch – though I do like the horse a bit.
Second Race
1. Touch Money
2. Cavalry Call
3. Soap Note
Figured there was good reason the very competent WB Calhoun barn moved TOUCH MONEY up from a debut defeat in the minor leagues (EVD) to make his second start at Churchill. Ran into none other than R1 selection Detention there, took a little while to find stride after getting off the fence, but finished with good energy, perhaps even gaining slightly on the winner in the very late stages, and like the way he traveled in Sept. 30 work vid. CAVALRY CALL looks dirt-y enough in post-turf-debut work video to make one think the surface switch will serve him well. SOAP NOTE seemed to run out of gas very late in a decent debut and looks very much like a second-start improver, but he doesn’t appear to have a ton of speed, which could make the rail draw especially tricky.
Third Race
1. Surfin’ M
2. Final Thoughts
3. Bird the Legend
SURFIN’ M was pretty good over a one-turn mile last month returning from a short break at this class level, but the maiden three back came in a two-turn contest like this one. Can lead, can press, can stalk, can win at a fair price. Yes, FINAL THOUGHTS was claimed from the B Cox barn, a move one might not be so keen to get behind, but he at least was claimed on the rise, from a $10K maiden claimer to a $16K N2L claimer. Way he ran last time wins most races at that level, and I think the horse stands a decent chance of holding that form. Blinkers on mean I have no idea what. Hope he doesn’t mind taking kickback while sitting in pocket. Skeptical that BIRD THE LEGEND really wants two turns, but his sprint form’s so much better than many in here that he can have a say even with distance limitations.
Fourth Race
1. Ides of Demarch
2. Dancewhenyoucan
3. Danzig’s Dora
IDES OF DEMARCH comes from Iowa a fresh horse but with a recent drill, is at the right class level, and has the right style to get the right trip to win at the right price. Trainer went 7-2-1-1 last fall at KEE and in fall of ’21 was 6-2-0-0. DANCEWHENYOUCAN won with some authority last out, but do note the trainer’s modest stat with last-out winners, and even casting aside that potentially dubious piece of information, I think the horse looks vulnerable to some regression. DANZIG’S DORA hardly can regress off her last start, so poorly did she run first off the claim. Not at all sure blinkers-on is going to be the answer, but surely some sort of bounce-back performance is in order.
Fifth Race
1. Fan’s Choice
2. Livelaughloy
3. Aloha Magic
I bet FAN’S CHOICE actually has some early pace to him – it’s just that he’s been bad in the gate both starts. Maybe that’s just him, but two lively works, the most recent from the gate, for this drop to his lowest level. Likely goes overlooked here. LIVELAUGHLOY shows $17K purchase price, debuts for $30K with solid string of IND drills for a barn that consistently wins with first-time starters. Liked ALOHA MAGIC a little bit in her debut – she ran so poorly I’m inclined just to throw the race out. Blinkers on – eh. Will give her one more look at a price.
Seventh Race
1. Oscar’s Hope
2. Yukon Striker
3. Two Seven O
There does appear to be ample speed entered, and doesn’t that make OSCAR’S HOPE the most likely winner by a decent margin? Was a good horse on dirt but switch to turf two back appears to have brought him to a higher level. One-run closer, but I actually like him better cutting back to this standard American 5 1/2 furlong grass sprint from the much different 6 1/2 at Euro style Kentucky Downs. YUKON STRIKER’s last two races don’t put him in the same galaxy as top contenders here – but his first two do, and I’d look for him to pop back toward that level. Suggestive Ellis work pattern since the barn change, and I’d guess he can turf. TWO SEVEN O just needs to get back to the race he ran three back in his grass debut to factor at what presumably will be a good price. Last was just kind of meh but don’t think he cared for wet turf two back.
Eighth Race
1. Palestra
2. Babylon Sister
3. Joy of Life
Just one work video up for first-timer PALESTRA, a compact type who I’d guess might have some speed. The video cuts off just after things really start to get interesting over at the 6f pole, her rider asking for some very late-in-work speed and getting a quick response. Slim evidence, but I’ll lean on it. Couple work videos up for BABYLON SISTER, and while she didn’t blow me away, the filly did seem to get better with every drill. The McPeek/Ortiz trainer/jock combo has been worth noting. JOY OF LIFE probably should have improved more second out than she actually did? Maybe just a touch slow to figure it all out? Can still imagine a considerable step forward.
Ninth Race
1. Facteur Cheval
2. Taking Candy
3. Highway Robber
FACTEUR CHEVAL in his heyday was a Group 1 level middle distance horse. Don’t think we’re going to see that horse again as FC heads toward his 8th birthday, but I don’t think he loved Kentucky Downs making his American debut last month and probably has another level to hit. First Lasix FWIW. TAKING CANDY caught out wide and behind in a slow-paced SAR race that marked his first start in the better part of a year. Ran just fine and has latitude to improve. HIGHWAY ROBBER back from a very long layoff. High-class animal, and while he hit his peak form running longer than this, he showed some middle-distance chops in the past, and I’ll guess trainer B Lynch has him ready for something somewhat representative.
Tenth Race
1. Classic Cause
2. Wavefront
3. D Bigalow
Dirt debut and N American debut as well for CLASSIC CAUSE. Trainer W Ward wins with horses like this. Work video — and work times – suggest to me that this horse has some early speed – perhaps enough to make the lead from an inside draw, which is how I’d like to see things unfold. WAVEFRONT is stuck on the AE list. Trainer doesn’t usually run in KY, and not only does she ship this horse to KEE to debut, J Ortiz took a call. Interesting. D BIGALOW is what he is, but what that is is a horse who stands a strong chance of finishing in the top 3 here. Was fine on turf last time, but I look at that comeback run more as a prep for return to dirt.
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