South Florida vs. UTSA
We have quite the collection of animal mascots on display on Thursday night, as we’ll have the Bearkats, Bulls, Roadrunners, Jaguars, Red Wolves, and Bears, oh my(!), with four games across three conferences on October 8. Both Conference USA games – Sam Houston vs. Liberty and Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky – kick off at 7 p.m ET, while South Florida vs. UTSA and South Alabama vs. Arkansas State go at 7:30. We’ll have those two games on ESPN and ESPN2, respectively, while the Liberty game is on ESPNU and the Missouri State game is on CBS Sports Network.
It goes without saying that USF and UTSA is the biggest game of the night, and that will be the focal point of these Thursday game write-ups.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 6, 8:30 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 6 College Football Picks and Predictions.
South Florida vs. UTSA (-7, 50) Prediction
7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Pick: UTSA -7
The Bulls and Roadrunners match up in what turns out to be a pretty big game. Both teams are 4-1 on the season, with UTSA 1-0 in conference play and South Florida 1-1. Seeing as how no Group of Six team has taken the ball and run with it to be the pacesetter in the push for the College Football Playoff, this may wind up being a pretty big data point from the Alamodome.
I am most curious to see how USF’s defense holds up here. The Bulls have only allowed a total of 73 points in their five games, but have faced FIU, Army, Delaware State, Bowling Green, and Temple. UTSA is far and away the most potent offensive team of that bunch. The Bulls’ schedule ranks 143rd for Jeff Sagarin, while UTSA’s ranks 79th, mostly because they played Texas and lost 30-6. They did play a shootout with Colorado State, a 59-45 decision that laid a lot of the groundwork for Jim Mora Jr. to fire Rams DC Tyson Summers during the first quarter of last week’s game against Oregon State.
You have to be concerned with the lack of explosive plays from the Bulls under first-year head coach Brian Hartline, who knows a thing or two about recruiting wide receivers. QB Michael Van Buren has not thrown a pick yet, but also only has three touchdown passes and has been sacked nine times. His longest pass play and the team’s longest pass play is just 38 yards. Collectively, the Bulls have averaged 4.7 yards per carry and have 13 rushing scores, but they’ve had big trench edges in the majority of their games. UTSA is a much more formidable and talented foe.
Longtime starter Owen McCown has a 7/2 TD/INT ratio with a 68.2% completion rate for UTSA, as they’ve racked up eight TD through the air and nine on the ground. They’ve averaged 5.1 yards per tote, including 6.1 from feature back Will Henderson III. Four players for the Roadrunners have at least 16 catches, so they’ve spread the ball around well.
Despite the lack of explosives, USF is only 0.14 yards per play behind UTSA for the season as a whole, but they are -0.44 YPP in FBS games. Both teams had over nine yards per play in their lone FCS victories, but, remember, UTSA also faced Texas and only had 3.02 YPP in that game. USF hasn’t seen anything remotely close to Texas. Or probably UTSA for that matter.
Other Thursday Games
Sam Houston at Liberty (-13, 52.5): I’ve gone against Liberty a bit too much thus far and have been burned by Jamey Chadwell and his potent rushing attack. The Bearkats are very much improved this season, as they’re getting better QB play and have defended the pass well, but they’re also 122nd in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Liberty’s defense has allowed fewer than five yards per play, so they’ve been very solid. I like Under 52.5 here and also lean towards Sam Houston getting a 13-point head start in a game I could see being a low-scoring affair. Pick: Under 52.5
Missouri State at Western Kentucky (-2.5, 57): I have downgraded the Hilltoppers 13 points in my power ratings already this season. This is a very bad football team, but Missouri State isn’t much better, if at all. My line on this game is WKU -1, so some slight value on the Bears. Both of these teams have played rough schedules relative to their peers, as WKU has the hardest SOS of any C-USA team per Sagarin at 53rd and Missouri State sits 77th, second in the conference.
South Alabama at Arkansas State (PK, 58): South Alabama has the better offense and Arkansas State has the better defense in this matchup. We’ll see which side wins the day. The Red Wolves lost their conference opener in Lafayette to the Ragin’ Cajuns by a 23-20 count last time out and were outgained by over 140 yards. South Alabama beat an atrocious UL Monroe team to start 1-0 in league play. But, they’ve been wildly inconsistent and this game being a coin flip seems about right.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 6 games on our Pro Picks Page.
