Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Wednesday, April 8 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 8.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: General Graham (8th race)
Eighth Race
1. General Graham
2. American Brass
3. High Go
GENERAL GRAHAM was bet like he couldn’t lose his career debut last out at FG and ran to that betting. He aired, and this has the feel of a horse who’s going to be even better second time out than first. Think he’ll thrive over the 7f. Just needs to get out of the gate from post 1. Could be connections got caught stealing running AMERICAN BRASS for a mere $7.5K tag two back. He won by a pole, was claimed, ran a winning race for $30K last out, and now gets a dirt shot. HIGH GO debuted in a two-turn race and has run nothing but two-turn races – so, is the cut back to a long sprint really going to put him over the top? Maybe.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other seven races on Wednesday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Waggley
2. Smoke
3. Frontline Fury
I had WAGGLEY picked over his W Ward-trained stablemate Suspicions in Race 1 on opening day; Waggley was scratched in favor of this spot, and Suspicions won by two lengths. This field, top to bottom, looks less challenging than Friday’s, and Waggley probably wins as the short favorite – unless SMOKE brings the fire. I can’t recall trainer B Walsh having an April 2yo starter at Keeneland. One breeze video for this horse, where he sat behind two workmates before coming outside of them and “winning.” Looked pretty good. Saw FRONTLINE FURY working in company when looking at breezes for Joe Joe Dude, fifth in the meet opener. Frontline Fury appeared to be the more capable horse by some margin.
Second Race
1. Nassau Circle
2. Outlaw Empire
3. Trew Violence
Was trying to get a read on a recent CD work video from NASSAU CIRCLE – he definitely was headstrong in the early stages, but came through the lane under an absolute stranglehold. Add that to a couple quick, suggestive FG works and one might imagine the new barn is sitting on a live horse for a big purse. OUTLAW EMPIRE only beat $15K maidens in his last-out FG win, but he beat them easily, and the key might be blinkers. First time in blinkers, he went evenly in a turf route, and that last start marked his first blinkered try in a dirt sprint, which is why I think he can repeat the performance. TREW VIOLENCE’s only dirt starts came in MSW or N1X allowance company. The class relief here must be weighed against his apparent decline after showing mild promise during the summer of ’24.
Third Race
1. Amarth
2. Kapoor
3. Lord I Wonder
On the Beyers, AMARTH is a little too slow, but I think she can do. Was a second-start KEE MSW winner over this very trip – no coincidence, since 7f to a one-turn mile hits her sweet spot. Keep that in mind when judging her 2026 bow in a two-turn FG allowance. She’s gotten in plenty of work since that start, and I’d say this was the goal all along. Maybe she can get up over likely strong favorite KAPOOR. Kapoor won three straight by nearly 15 combined lengths. The two this year at 6f, but she hardly was stopping in her 7f MSW score last fall. Talented and lightly raced – and yet I can’t shake the feeling she’s not as much of a lock as it might look on paper. LORD I WONDER did little running last out coming back from a layoff in a turf sprint, but she’s better in longer dirt sprints like this. Going to take some sort of step forward – just how far, hard to say.
Fourth Race
1. Flash N Dash
2. Cuvee Creed
3. Expecto Patronum
FLASH N DASH took a hint of betting in her career debut and lone start – and did not do a hint of running. I actually liked her in that spot, too. Turf sprint MSW was not the ticket – what about a dirt sprint $50K maiden-claimer? Guessing she’ll be much better this time. CUVEE CREED made her first start in blinkers last out and completely changed her running style while turning in a career-best. That Tapeta form can carry over to dirt if it was the equipment change that triggered the improvement. EXPECTO PATRONUM on work video looks like a petite gal. She got the better of an unraced workmate in her 3/30 drill over the track – looked okay doing it. Class relief coming out of only MSW starts.
Fifth Race
1. Dresden Row
2. Integration
3. Theismann
They paid $575K for DRESDEN ROW in January – there are hopes, I’d say. Three turf races – two sprints and a mile over yielding ground. He’s not at all exposed on grass and has run well enough on Tapeta to factor here. Got some Palm Beach Downs work video – quite encouraging! He got drilled by Antiquarian, but that’s one of the best dirt horses in N America. Sits just behind the pace and gets first run on odds-on fave INTEGRATION. I hardly need to say much about him – he’s on a huge class drop from a bunch of G1s. I just didn’t like how he seemed to run to the level of his competition while lacking late spark last year. Can see him coming up short. THEISMANN won well enough over the course in the fall, but this is a tougher group, and I’m not sure he’s in the same form now as then.
Sixth Race
1. Answered Prayers
2. Shestallthatsall
3. Emerald Spun
ANSWERED PRAYERS fell straight out the back door in her sprint debut, made some mild progress, didn’t set the world on fire. She might still be pretty good. Bred to route and gets that chance here. First-time blinkers, and on March 27, she went in company with Gilded Bandit, working inside him, going a little better at least past the wire and out around the club turn. Gilded Bandit, a second-time starter with blinkers added, won a Saturday maiden sprint at KEE with a 92 Beyer. AP finds a soft-seeming spot to clear the maiden ranks. SHESTALLTHATSALL has that name for good reason – yeah, she’s really tall. Almost certainly better suited to this route than her debut sprint, but I’d hoped to see a little more on workout video. She looks like she’s still working out some kinks. EMERALD SPUN didn’t have great trips in either of her two starts while at least mildly competitive. On the one hand, trainer R Brisset had a dirt string at Oaklawn and kept this filly at Turfway for Tapeta racing. On the other, maybe they had KEE dirt in mind all along.
Seventh Race
1. Love and Poetry
2. Love You Anyway
3. Fire Moon
LOVE AND POETRY has bookended her six-race career with two duds – that makes her look worse than she is. She’s actually pretty good, in fact. Prompt FG MSW turf route winner after the dismal KEE debut, and might have been moved prematurely in the Lacombe Stakes when beaten only by Fionn, who emerged as a leading 3yo filly turf horse last year. There’s work video as far back as February, when she was flying around the Tapeta training track at KEE. Her recent dirt work also encouraged. I looked at all the horses who were in the Pebbles Stakes because the 90 Beyer that LOVE YOU ANYWAY got there is such an outlier – and I’m not really buying the figure. She’s competitive, for sure, and will surely improve upon her Endeavor for a barn that won two on Saturday. FIRE MOON from same barn as top pick brings turf-leaning pedigree to grass debut and has been solid in both her starts – but good enough to overcome post 11 even if she does want grass?
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
For complete Derby Watch Top 20 rankings, visit DRF.com – Derby Watch analyzes top Kentucky Derby contenders each week. For odds, past performances and expert picks, visit DRF.com
Put yourself in position to win big this year with DRF’s Kentucky Derby Package. Top data and trusted picks all in one place.
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
