Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Wednesday, October 21 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 3.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Go Missy Go (3rd Race)
Third Race
1. Go Missy Go
2. Fair Practice
3. Lady Lichi
GO MISSY GO broke poorly and slowly into stride, debuting over 5 1/2 furlongs in an IND MSW. Winner there went to the front and never came close to looking back, but GMG gained good ground on runner-up through the homestretch, just missed second, and appeared to be launching into a noteworthy gallop-out — when video quickly cut off so that (sarcasm alert) the billions of viewers breathless to re-watch the race’s final furlong could be satisfied. A little confusion about which horse is which in subsequent work video – but think GMG has worked all right? The KEE-based barn has strong stats in several pertinent categories. Guess that FAIR PRACTICE will be bet down into strong favoritism: The stablemate who beat her last out at SAR came back to win a KEE N1X allowance, and, frankly, trainer C Brown has sent out basically nothing but live dirt horses this meet. Clearly capable, likely overbet. No work video for firster LADY LICHI but shows $35K sales price and debuts for $150K with a solid-looking work pattern. Worth noting the barn is having its slowest KEE meet in about forever.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other seven races on Wednesday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Nickyb
2. Pop and Locke
3. Black Jacket Crazy
One work video up for first-timer NICKYB, that from Oct. 6, and one was enough. Fast, light on his feet, athletic, and from the appearance of things far enough along to make an impression first out. Don’t really see the turf in pedigree, and wonder if connections gave POP AND LOCKE that grass debut as much for a learning experience as anything, though his action in 10/9 KEE work video (blinkers were on) I suppose could be seen as turf-leaning. Thing is he doesn’t need to improve much second out to contend on the MSW to $75K MCL class drop. Firster BLACK JACKET CRAZY debuts for $75K after RNA-in for $72K at a yearling auction. No work video – quick 3f from gate after coming to KEE.
Second Race
1. First of His Name
2. Jinxzi
3. East Village
Surprised FIRST OF HIS NAME was as high as 26-1 last out as he might have been well meant, stretching out to two turns second race after a claim/layoff. Earlier routes say he’s best racing on or near the lead, and poor start led to him dropping farther back at Indy. Granted, it was a year and a half ago, but wonder if he has something close to the April 2025 KEE showing still somewhere in the reservoir – and would say the Sept. 28 work video suggests he does. JINXZI needed $12K and $10K tags for the two wins, and the superficial look of the form lines suggests he tops out, distance-wise, at the 1 1/2-turn Ellis mile, but thought his last start suggested a horse who might’ve come back from a 10-week layoff racing at a higher level and capable of going a little farther. EAST VILLAGE 7-2 on the line and probably won’t be any higher than that – perfect-trip winner last time and now up a notch in class.
Fourth Race
1. Saltwater Cowboy
2. Two Seven O
3. Tiz Mary’s Comet
SALTWATER COWBOY didn’t want anything to do with 1 1/8 miles two starts ago, first race after claim by these connections, but the cut back to 7f last time awakened him. Has run some solid figures, at least, in two-turn dirt miles, but the longer one-turn thing is something new to him – and might raise the ceiling. Horse seemed to slip through the cracks earlier this year – the $10K claim price looks like a bargain. Foggy work video from 10/15 encouraging for a horse of this ilk. TWO SEVEN O came to live on dirt at Oaklawn over the summer, and maybe his early grass success was somewhat illusory, owing to his good form rather than a special fondness for the surface. The shorter sprints have been making it seem like he’d appreciate the added ground here. TIZ MARY’S COMET 1-1 on dirt for this barn and was a notably game winner last out. Seems like he has to go for the lead having drawn the rail – that might actually turn out all right.
Fifth Race
1. Majestic Valor
2. Justification
3. Solar Horizon
Can watch the June 6 drill from MAJESTIC VALOR before he went off the work tab for three months – breezed like a horse they might’ve wanted to take to Saratoga had he stayed on a work pattern. Video from drills since he returned to morning training over the summer – equally encouraging. Probably not so encouraging – the expected win price. Not surprised if he goes even lower than the published 3-1. A patient old-school trainer wouldn’t hesitate giving a slightly “backward” horse not one but two one-turn races before stretching him out to the route trip that the horse needs – and I refer here to JUSTIFICATION, who ran into a scorching performance from Coach Pope when improving into his one-turn mile last out. Turf to dirt for second-time starting 2yo route maidens like SOLAR HORIZON has so far not been a winning move for the B Cox barn, but the sample’s small.
Sixth Race
1. Le Amazonia
2. Do Gooder
3. Big Trouble
Maybe 6f was a touch far for LE AMAZONIA last out at LRL – maybe she doesn’t want to race head and head for the lead so far out – and maybe, quite possibly, she bounced after a demanding race two back at SAR. Not sure she loved the yielding SAR course but ran hard through the homestretch and was gaining at the wire, and at least got over it decently – this comes up because the going at KEE has been demanding, and I expect that to continue. They also haven’t run a non-stakes race on turf since the first of three carded grass races Thursday, and were this to come off onto dirt, I think LA might be all right. Guess I’d be looking for a horse with some speed but also an extra dose of sprint stamina to handle the local lawn – a horse like DO GOODER, whose sprint have come at longer trips, but who should race close to the pace with a decent break. Ran into a sharp Kehoe Beach last out at KD. BIG TROUBLE fits about as well as any of them, but I wonder more with her than others how she’ll cope with the footing.
Seventh Race
1. Wonder Mist
2. Pagode
3. Fuzzbuster
WONDER MIST responded very favorably in the St. Louis Derby to the move from sprints to a route. Like the look of post-SLD workouts over this, his home track, and think there’s another level to find in his second race going long. Definitely will favor forward placements in 1 1/16-mile dirt races. Thought PAGODE based on afternoon form and morning work could not lose last time at CD. He lost – again. Starting to look like the horse has an issue with closing the deal. And also wonder if he could take a step back after being so well-meant last out while returning from a break. FUZZBUSTER had a tough trip two back and, blinkers on, might’ve gotten too much of the pace last out – both races on turf, but I’d guess he’s close to as capable on dirt.
Eighth Race
1. Follow Your Heart
2. Waterman’s Song
3. Novo Mesto
Another turf race we have to consider for a surface switch. FOLLOW YOUR HEART in easy KEE dirt work seemed to get over the surface all right while … kind of looking like a grass horse. Excellent debut – second to filly who will be among the favorites for the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint – and that was going a 5 1/2 furlong trip almost certainly short of her best. WATERMAN’S SONG’s lone work video shows her breezing on dirt, which probably doesn’t tell the whole tale since the horse is bred top and bottom for turf, and entered for turf on debut. NOVO MESTO a solid grass debut and a contender on grass, and from look of dirt work video, she’s the one you might want with a switch to the main track.
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
