New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston
Sixty-one straight days of football is 61 straight days of football. Even if one of those days only has one game and it’s New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston State. This Conference USA clash pairs teams that are collectively 3-9, but it’s still a football game and still an important one in terms of the conference standings. A win here for the road favorites would move them to 2-1 in C-USA play with conference favorites Jacksonville State and Liberty in their next two games. A win here for the home dog might help save Phil Longo’s job, which could be in jeopardy with a 3-15 start to his tenure at Sam Houston.
The only game in town is on ESPN2, so these two programs do get some visibility and some TV money for the conference in a standalone spot. After sharing the spotlight with the Sun Belt on Tuesday and with three conferences, including C-USA, in action on Thursday, let’s see if the Aggies and Bearkats can leave a good impression on Wednesday.
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New Mexico State (-3, 46) vs. Sam Houston State Prediction
Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Pick: New Mexico State -3
There are 138 FBS teams. Jeff Sagarin ranks all 266 Division I teams, so FBS and FCS. New Mexico State enters this game 135th in his rankings, while Sam Houston is 151st. Two of the three wins between the two teams have come against very poor FCS teams. Sam Houston beat Nicholls, who Sagarin has 251st in the nation, and New Mexico State beat Mercyhurst, who sits 254th.
That’s what made New Mexico State’s 34-13 win over Western Kentucky a few weeks ago so shocking. The Aggies had just lost the rivalry game to New Mexico by 24 points, but rallied to take down the Hilltoppers. Of course, then they returned to normalcy with a 22-3 loss to FIU in Miami.
Perhaps some extra prep and recovery time will help Tony Sanchez’s team. That loss to FIU was back on Oct. 7, so they are coming in with a full bye week, as opposed to the Bearkats, who lost 16-3 to Western Kentucky last Wednesday. With an offensive-minded head coach in Longo, who is a disciple of the Air Raid system, the expectation was that Sam Houston’s offense would improve in Year 2, but it has not. In fact, the Bearkats have not scored more than 21 points against any FBS opponent and have scored six points total in two conference losses.
Take away the FCS data point for these two teams and things are bleak on offense. Sam Houston had 8.3 YPP against Nicholls and has mustered just 4.5 YPP against FBS competition. Similarly, New Mexico State had 8.5 YPP against Mercyhurst and has just 5.3 YPP against FBS opposition.
Defensively, though, both teams have made some strides. Sam Houston allowed over seven yards per play to Texas Tech, but still ranks just outside the top 50 in YPP against for the season. The Aggies have only allowed 4.1 YPP in two C-USA games and 5.2 YPP overall.
The two defenses excel in different areas, as New Mexico State has only allowed 3.5 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Sam Houston has allowed over five yards per carry. But, the Bearkats have allowed the second-fewest yards per pass attempt and just 137.8 passing yards per game, which ranks fourth in the nation. The Aggies have a below average pass defense.
Conveniently, the Bearkats have a better passing offense with Landyn Locke, who has an 11/4 TD/INT ratio with a 62.9% completion rate. Sam Houston has only rushed for 3.1 yards per carry. On the flip side, the Aggies have had major QB problems, as transfer Trey Hedden has more interceptions (6) than TD passes (5) and has completed only 52.4% of his throws. Adam Damante was 9-of-22 against FIU. Hedden was 2-of-8. But, New Mexico State’s leading rusher James Jones has 6.5 yards per carry and they have 4.5 as a team.
New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston State Prediction
I thought about just putting the shrug emoji guy here. The weather looks good, so it shouldn’t have an impact on the play selection. By virtue of the bye week and the better rushing offense, New Mexico State is the preferred side in my mind. Sam Houston had a 5/0 TD/INT ratio against Nicholls and has a 7/5 TD/INT ratio against everybody else, including just a 55% completion rate with a 0/1 TD/INT ratio in two conference games. Their passing numbers are very inflated by the Nicholls game, so that’s another fade sign.
Pick: New Mexico State -3
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