Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Brad Free handicaps the Sunday, March 15 racing card at Santa Anita, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Cash Call (6th race)
Sixth Race
1. Cash Call
2. Thermal
3. Magnificat
G3 winner CASH CALL is expected to win this allowance sprint at a short price while making her first start since finishing fifth last summer in a G1 sprint at Saratoga. ‘CALL is working well, runs well fresh, earns relatively high figures, and is 3-for-4 at Santa Anita. THERMAL dueled and cracked last out when she came off Lasix in a G3 sprint. Back in an allowance race, with Lasix, her N1X romp two starts back at SA is the fastest race any of these have run. MAGNIFICAT also misfired in the G3. Favored at even-money, she was unable to establish a forward position and finished fifth. Now she is stuck on the rail. OOTY, stablemate of the top choice, will be rolling from behind.
Here are Brad’s thoughts on the other eight races on Sunday’s Santa Anita card.
First Race
1. Shapoval
2. Island Paradise
3. Nineteenth Hole
Nine-start maiden SHAPOVAL, who ran better than the line looks last out, can win this Cal-bred maiden-50 turf mile. He was hung three- and four-wide every step last out, but was still in the hunt at the furlong pole before he tired. The trouble-prone gelding faces several of the same rivals while dropping in for the tag, and should be forwardly placed in a field short on pace. ISLAND PARADISE finished last of six in his most recent start, but now drops from open maiden-50 to Cal-bred maiden-50. The best finish of his three-start career was his only try at this level, a third-place debut in November. He is back in with his friends, and an off-the-pace contender. NINETEENTH HOLE missed by a half-length in his debut while finishing in front of four others in this field. He benefitted by a ground-saving trip from start to finish. The top choice ran at least as well, even though ‘HOLE finished more than six lengths in front of him. Good debut by ‘HOLE nonetheless.
Second Race
1. Uffda
2. Outrageous
3. Legal Fiction
Six furlongs might be a reach for UFFDA, but the front-running gray is the speed of the field and seeking her third straight after back-to-back front-running wins at 5.5f. She won at 6.5f in autumn 2024, so this would not be the first time she carried her speed. UFFDA is the one they must catch. A similar comment applies to OUTRAGEOUS, who likely will be positioned second behind the speed and get first run if the top choice falters. OUTRAGEOUS won a pair of six-furlong races early in her career in 2024, but like the top choice, most races since have been 5.5f or shorter. LEGAL FICTION drops to $12.5k claiming starter/$16k optional claiming for her second start following a long layoff. She won three of her first four starts in 2024; her next-to-last comeback three weeks ago was her first start in 16 months. Improvement likely vs. this easier field.
Third Race
1. Melismatic
2. Diaghilev
3. Kelce
European import MELISMATIC makes his U.S. debut with a solid work pattern that suggests he is ready to fire. His debut last June in Ireland was a promising runner-up finish behind subsequent listed stakes winner/group-placed Daytona. The point is, MELISMATIC has faced good company and runs well fresh. It appears trainer Phil D’Amato has him ready to fire. DIAGHILEV fell short by a length in his comeback, which was his first since being gelded. A sibling to $1.7 million-earner/G3 winner Goliad, DIAGHILEV is likely to improve in his second start following a three-month break. KELCE and NEWTON are expensive colts ($850k and $975k) making their debuts for Bob Baffert. KELCE worked in company with G3 winner/two-time G1 runner-up Desert Gate on Feb. 27. Although Desert Gate reportedly was best in the work, KELCE worked well. The uncertainty is Baffert rarely wins with turf-sprint first-time starters (1-for-17 past five years). BRIGHT EYE BUNGLE is the second D’Amato import; he finished second in a 14-horse field in his December debut in Ireland.
Fourth Race
1. Contrary Chieftain
2. Oobubbakakayo
3. Alpine Thunder
CONTRARY CHIEFTAIN figures to start at a short price in this $6.25k claiming route, based on a runaway win two back for $8k claiming. He was overmatched vs. tougher last out, but is now back where he fits, with a pace-pressing style and only four rivals to beat. His trainer Librado Barocio is 10-for-20 with favorites the past year. OOBUBBAKAKAYO drops a notch and gets a rider switch to Armando Ayuso after a wide-trip fourth for $8k claiming. ALPINE THUNDER wired low-level claiming rivals last out at six furlongs, and is likely to influence the pace along with MISCHIEFS CAUSEYWAY and MOTHER’S PRAYER. Basically, if the favorite misfires, it’s anyone’s race.
Fifth Race
1. Beef Winslow
2. Baldoro
3. Kokosan
BEEF WINSLOW stretches to a mile after a convincing turf win at 6.5f. The seven-win veteran is equally effective around two turns; four wins were routes. The sharp gelding is the choice to win with a pressing/stalking trip. But he is not a cinch, due to the presence of BALDORO. The latter finished second in both starts this winter at this N1X level; he lost to good horses in both races. Last out it was Captain Choochies, who entered the weekend having won five straight; two starts back BALDORO lost to the sharp Centrodelantero. The knock on BALDORO is he often settles for second (3 wins, 9 seconds). KOKOSAN exits the same race as BALDORO. The fifth-place finish by KOKOSAN was not bad considering he broke from post 10. Now he breaks from the rail, and there is no doubt he has improved this winter; his last two starts were the best of his career, according to the figures. Last-out Cal-bred winner SIR PERCIVAL must show speed from the outside post (9 of 9).
Seventh Race
1. Mrs. Astor
2. Public Assembly
3. Paradise Lake
The top long-distance turf mare in California, MRS. ASTOR has won four of her last five, including a narrow victory last out at a mile and one-half. She might prefer longer than this mile-and-one-quarter trip, but she has won going shorter and certainly has a knock for the wire. She is five-for-five in photo finishes (neck, head, nose). With regular rider Umberto Rispoli injured and sidelined, Antonio Fresu will ride. MRS. ASTOR will stay in training this year if she runs well. If she misfires, which is not likely, she could become a broodmare this spring. PUBLIC ASSEMBLY finished only a neck behind the top choice when they met in November; ‘ASSEMBLY did not have a clean trip last out in a G3 mile. This longer distance benefits ‘ASSEMBLY, who will rally late under her new rider Florent Geroux. PARADISE LAKE, third behind the top pair two back at a mile and three-eighths, subsequently won a G3 mile over STARRY NIGHT. The pace is likely to be set by longshot A THOUSAND MILES; STARRY NIGHT probably will sit second and get first run.
Eighth Race
1. Twisted Humor
2. Cash in Toknight
3. Big Miss
TWISTED HUMOR is the speed of the field, dropping from Cal-bred maiden-50 to Cal-bred maiden-20. If the race unfolds as expected, she can be long gone. However, she is not the least bit trustworthy; she lost ground in the stretch all three starts, six furlongs might be a reach. CASH IN TOKNIGHT drops from the same race as the top choice; ‘TOKNIGHT completely misfired. But she ran okay against better last year as a 2yo, this is her easiest chance yet. BIG MISS adds Lasix after a closing fourth in a slow race at this level. She will be chugging late. LOVE LOCK has speed, and second-time starter SOUTHERN RIFF adds blinkers after finishing 11th in her debut at odds of 44-1. Interesting that jockey Mike Smith is named to ride a horse that, at least on paper, has no chance. Maybe she is better than her debut suggests?
Ninth Race
1. Marian Cross
2. Rosa Parks
3. Miyako
MARIAN CROSS ran much better than her seventh-place finish position last out, and gets the call to win this N1X turf sprint. In her most recent start, she broke last, zoomed forward to chase/press, and weakened in the lane. Under the circumstances, she actually ran well. Her subsequent works include a sizzling 58-flat on Feb. 28 on synthetic. With a clean start second time on SA turf, ‘CROSS can win with a pace-setting or pace-pressing trip. Lightly raced ROSA PARKS finished a creditable second in her comeback, while racing for the first time in nine months. The two-for-four Cal-bred has a right to improve second start back. MIYAKO faces tougher after a decisive N3L starter victory in her first SA turf sprint. She has never been better. EIFFEL was better last year than her tenth-place comeback suggests, and is a candidate to improve second start back. She should start at a hint of a price.
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
For complete Derby Watch Top 20 rankings, visit DRF.com – Derby Watch analyzes top Kentucky Derby contenders each week. For odds, past performances and expert picks, visit DRF.com
DRF Road to the Derby Package Available Now! Save 37% on key handicapping essentials through Kentucky Derby day.
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
