Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Friday, July 31 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: I’m Worthy (4th race)
Fourth Race
1. I’m Worthy
2. First Call Bob
3. Swiss Army Knife
I’M WORTHY improved suddenly to win his first start off the claim for Valente while finding handy speed, and did so with a figure that makes him tough in here if he can repeat it; tried moving up in class last time to no avail; looks like a much better fit here. FIRST CALL BOB shaped with some potential early on while winning on debut with an 83 Beyer, then racing competitively with a tough allowance field in his second start; the surface switch last time made sense given his pedigree, but he failed to do any running in the turf debut; back to dirt on the drop. SWISS ARMY KNIFE found the right field when switched back to dirt and dropped down in class to get the maiden win two back; was up off the claim when chasing in a race that was dominated on the lead last time; drops back down.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other nine races on Friday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. River of Deceit
2. Wood Island
3. Without Hesitation
RIVER OF DECEIT has the advantage of race experience, and he ran well in that debut while rallying into second after having to steady slightly coming to the stretch; ensures that one of the firsters will have to be above average with any improvement in his second start. WOOD ISLAND is by new sire Jackie’s Warrior (1 for 21 with firsters so far, no turf wins from limited starts); this is a precocious and versatile female family, and Weaver has few peers with horses likes this – first-time starter, 2yo, turf, sprint: 8 for his last 20, 40%, $4.22 ROI, 4 for his last 9 at Saratoga, $4.38 ROI. WITHOUT HESITATION went for over $2 million after powering through a 9.3 breeze in April; her pedigree doesn’t scream grass, but she is bred to be precocious, is a half to two turf winners, and has looked good working on this surface up to her debut; Ward doesn’t mind running juvenile fillies against the boys, but, while he generally excels with first-time starters, it is worth nothing that he is just 1 for his last 29 with 2yos debuting in turf sprints in NY ($0.24 ROI).
Second Race
1. Beltandsuspenders
2. Saysomethingnice
3. Risky Mission
BELTANDSUSPENDERS is by new sire Mind Control (two debut winners so far); this filly is the first foal from her dam, who has a stakes-winning sibling, and this is the female family of top performers Beholder, Into Mischief, and Mendelssohn; interesting that Irad lands here. SAYSOMETHINGNICE looked a bit green from the gate, then chased wide to no avail in her debut last month against much tougher competition; drops right away with something to build on. RISKY MISSION is a full-sister to Zeebear, and a half to Nina Kay, both debut winners for these connections; breezing right along for Rice.
Third Race
1. Sheer Will
2. Proud Foot
3. Confirmed Star
SHEER WILL has hit the board in six straight, beginning with an overdue maiden win last October, which she backed up with an easy 83 Beyer victory in her next start; she subsequently lost three straight as the favorite, though she ran well in all of those races, as well; got back on track last time when scoring easily over a wet track; freshened up, and Prat sticks for the return. PROUD FOOT was in good form late last year before getting a break; was a convincing winner off the claim two back, but was subsequently listed as a vet scratch and didn’t turn up again for almost three months; looked no worse for wear last time when racing wider than the in-form winner Mursal, who she meets again in this spot; off the claim again, though she has run well for this trainer previously. CONFIRMED STAR was a blowout winner the one time she was given class relief during a 1 for 8 2025 campaign; scored off the claim in April, and she has been facing tougher since; looks like a nice fit here if she can bring her good race to NY.
Fifth Race
1. Visible
2. Cederberg
3. Vivaldi
VISIBLE was first back from a long layoff in the turf and route debut last time, and he was racing on gamely late in that race while coming up just short of second and third behind an impressive winner; draws inside while entered right back at the same level; can easily do better. CEDERBERG was also making his 3yo debut off a layoff in his most recent start, where he was put on the lead before getting swallowed up in the stretch; that field was better than this one; logical with blinkers going on. VIVALDI owns the top figures in this field, though he is a 5yo maiden; settled for second in five of his six starts last year, most of them at short prices, and he was a non-factor in his first start this year; takes a needed class drop for top connections.
Sixth Race
1. Freedom Charge
2. Yestahal
3. Calling Mr. Mo
FREEDOM CHARGE lost early position, then raced greenly early in his debut, where he was actually the longest shot on the board against just three others; he raced on gamely in the stretch of that race once he figured things out; expecting an improved effort for a trainer who gets much better results with his juveniles after a start. YESTAHAL went for $1.1 million after a 9.4 breeze in March and was sent to Cox – 27%, $3.57 ROI with 2yo first-time starters at Saratoga over the past five years, 4 wins already at this meet; does show a gap in his works between 5/22 and 6/19, but he has been breezing right along since. $105k purchase CALLING MR. MO goes for an excellent first-out trainer, and he has looked good working up to his first start; the first six foals from this dam are all winners (1 debut winner), and the second dam is Grade 1 Test and Ballerina winner Lady Tak.
Seventh Race
1. Sharp Spark
2. Coach Cronin
3. Calibrate
SHARP SPARK finished determinedly to close down one of today’s rivals in the mud back in March for this trainer, then scored over this distance two starts later and was re-claimed by Kantarmaci; was up against it while trying to gain in a race that was holding together up front last time; handles distance and this race might be run to suit him with some speed drawn to his inside. COACH CRONIN won three straight with figures in the upper-80s earlier this year in California, including a gate-to-wire win in his first start for this trainer; his good race makes him tough, and he gets Lasix back on with Prat up. CALIBRATE has won five of his last six starts on dirt, with the lone loss coming when stretched all the way out in a Grade 3 last September; has a versatile running style and fits on figures, and he has already run well on this track, even if it was way back in his career debut as a 2yo.
Eighth Race
1. K Gun
2. Liberty’s Secret
3. Lightning Strike
K GUN began with a professional win in a maiden claimer, where she made two moves before splitting horses in the stretch to get away from that field; that win made her eligible for the two recent races in starter company, including the career-best effort last time when gunning down a loose leader with a competitive figure; steps into a tougher race looking to keep her undefeated record intact. LIBERTY’S SECRET did some racing in her debut last September when forced to chase a talented rival from the start; was ready off the bench last time when sitting a handy trip, before swinging clear and powering away from that field in the stretch; still has plenty of upside. LIGHTNING STRIKE was an impressive debut winner last March before enduring a long layoff; the turf sprint return seemed like a prep, and she went fast on the lead before weakening late and getting closed down by an in-form rival back on dirt last time; might be set for her best now as she moves to an outside post.
Ninth Race
1. Obliteration
2. Gilded Bandit
3. Local Knowledge
OBLITERATION had something to prove last time when stepping into Grade 1 company following a pair of easy wins over weaker company in his two stateside starts as a 3yo, and he certainly proved that he can compete with better horses when rallying to just miss second in that spot; he is fastest on the way into this, and his handy speed gives Ortiz options from his outside draw. GILDED BANDIT also tried the Woody Stephens last time, where he was outrun by a fast early pace, before swinging very wide to put in a game run through the stretch to get fourth; has been improving with every start for Mott, and still has forward to go, but he is more pace-dependent than his main rivals. LOCAL KNOWLEDGE made an impressive showing in his lone start as a 2yo when carrying a long, wide run to victory over a loaded field; he unfortunately missed time after that, but he ran well in his return when facing a strong field of older, hard-nitting allowance rivals on this track; lands in a pretty tough field, but he can easily be this good.
Tenth Race
1. Rockyta
2. Scorch
3. Kaaterskill
ROCKYTA ran well in all three starts sprinting on turf earlier in the year in Florida; ran an odd race in the NY debut last month when ridden with a lot of patience and not moving clear to take a run around the turn, before ultimately getting shuffled back to last in the stretch; she still put in a game late run in that spot; can do better and will be a fair price. SCORCH ran fine in her first two turf starts, then was given a bit of class relief and broke through with a maiden win at the end of last year; had to alter out behind the eventual winner in the stretch before finishing a clear second ahead of the top one last time; right back at the same level with tactical speed from the rail. KAATERSKILL was first back from a layoff when facing tougher in her turf debut, which came nearly two years ago; looked good winning her next start with a good finish after getting stuck in some early traffic, and he only turf start since came in an allowance race last April, right before a long layoff; has a right to need one, but she can run a little and will be a price.
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