Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, July 30, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Sonny Gray’s teams are 12-2 (+8.90 units) when he starts on the road as a -150 favorite or higher since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-185 at ATH)
* SAN DIEGO momentum in follow-up game after divisional series vs. Colorado: 25-12 record (67.6%) for +14.22 units, ROI: 38.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-157 vs SF)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 433-379 but for -100.80 units and an ROI of -12.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-156 vs WSH)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 172-132 for +2.79 units and an ROI of +0.9% after an 18-10, +5.76 unit run out of the break.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-131 vs MIA), SEATTLE (+123 at LAD)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 118-154 start for -0.28 units. After losing about 10 units over the last six weeks, this angle is finally close to the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (+143 at TB), CINCINNATI (-105 vs PIT), WASHINGTON (+129 at ATL), ATHLETICS (+152 vs BOS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 223-272 for -26.04 units, but did take a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 31-25, +8.14 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-103 at CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (-105 at STL), CINCINNATI (-105 vs PIT), SEATTLE (+130 at LAD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 58-78 for -19.39 units and a solid ROI of -14.3%.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+109 at NYM)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 507-402 for +47.06 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+109 at NYM), SAN DIEGO (-157 vs SF)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 251-184 for +26.72 units and an ROI of 6.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-115 at CIN)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 780-1,015 but for +28.59 units and an ROI of 1.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+143 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+119 at MIN), SEATTLE (+123 at LAD)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 407-456 but for +91.87 units and an ROI of 10.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+123 at LAD)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 152-194 for -40.52 units and an ROI of -11.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-105 vs PIT)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 433-379 but for -100.80 units and an ROI of -12.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-156 vs WSH)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 459-406 record for +45.53 units and an ROI of 5.3% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+109 at NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (+130 at SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,171-2,054 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -270.74 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+130 at SD)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2219-2780 (44.4%) for -253.07 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (+143 at TB), WASHINGTON (+129 at ATL), PITTSBURGH (-115 at CIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-105 at STL), SEATTLE (+123 at LAD)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 660-557 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +12.92 units, for an ROI of 1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-131 vs MIA), CINCINNATI (-105 vs PIT)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 172-93 SU (+41.82 units, ROI: 15.8%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CHICAGO CUBS at STL (-105 CURRENTLY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 203-161 (+19.84 units, ROI: 5.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-157 vs SF)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 447-445 for +0.95 units, good for +0.1% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN FRANCISCO +130 (+23 diff), CINCINNATI -105 (+21), CHICAGO CUBS -105 (+16)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -185 (+40 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX -117 (+34), TAMPA BAY -173 (+22), MINNESOTA -143 (+21), ATLANTA -156 (+11)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 run edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 17-10-1 for +5.18 units and an ROI of 24.3%. On Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Unders are 28-11 for +15.1 units and an ROI of 38.7%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: SF-SD UNDER 8.5 (-1.0)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) CHICAGO-NL (61-47) at (902) ST LOUIS (54-54)
Trend: STL is 8-10 (-5.14 units) as a home favorite with starter Andre Pallante since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-115 vs CHC)
(905) PITTSBURGH (55-54) at (906) CINCINNATI (50-57)
Trend: Over the total is 43-26 (+14.40 units) when PIT is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-CIN (o/u at 9.5)
(909) SAN FRANCISCO (46-62) at (910) SAN DIEGO (55-53)
Trend: Under the total is 28-19-6 (+7.10 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-SD (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: SF is 28-12 (+17.50 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+130 at SD)
(911) TEXAS (55-53) at (912) TAMPA BAY (63-44)
Trend: TB is 47-33 (+27.62 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs TEX)
(913) KANSAS CITY (46-63) at (914) MINNESOTA (54-55)
Trend: Under the total is 9-1-1 (+7.95 units) when KC is on the road and faces opponents with a <= 0.540 win pct with starter Noah Cameron since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-MIN (o/u at 9)
Trend: KC is 3-12 (-8.11 units) as a road underdog with starter Noah Cameron since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+119 at MIN)
(917) BOSTON (56-51) at (918) ATHLETICS (45-63)
Trend: Sonny Gray’s teams are 12-2 (+8.90 units) when he starts on the road as a -150 favorite or higher since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-185 at ATH)
Trend: Over the total is 30-20-3 (+8.00 units) in ATH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-ATH (o/u at 10.5)
(919) SEATTLE (53-56) at (920) LOS ANGELES-NL (68-40)
Trend: SEA is 20-36 (-12.28 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+1.5 at LAD)
Trend: SEA is 2-11 (-8.83 units) as a road underdog within the line range -108 to +145 with starter Bryan Woo since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+123 at LAD)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #9: Kansas City at Minnesota, Tue 7/28-Thu 7/30
Trend: Home teams in the Royals-Twins AL Central rivalry are on a 42-18 (70%, +21.56 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 35.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-143 vs KC)
Series #37: Texas at Tampa Bay, Tue 7/28-Thu 7/30
Trend: TEXAS is on a very profitable 14-2 (87.5%, +13.72 units) run versus Tampa Bay
– The ROI on this trend is 85.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+143 at TB)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-173 vs TEX)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): WASHINGTON (+129 at ATL), SEATTLE (+123 at LAD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+123 at LAD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-131 vs MIA), ST LOUIS (-115 vs CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-117 vs NYY)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHC-STL (o/u at 9), SEA-LAD (o/u at 9)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
ATLANTA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 16-23 (41%) -13.12 units, ROI: -33.6%
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-156 vs WSH)
SAN DIEGO
Momentum after series vs. COLORADO: 25-12 (67.6%) +14.22 units, ROI: 38.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-157 vs SF)
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